A small update for T.D. #7 ...

[Stormsfury]

I do NOT expect #7 to become a hurricane, but minimal to moderate tropical storm with the greatest threat being very heavy rainfall totals on already saturated grounds along the Coastal Plains..

http://www.stormsfury1.com (Toolbar to My forecast/prognostic discussion) ...

[PurdueWx80]

Last 2 IR frames show explosive storm development over the center. This storm has felt its way towards the Gulf Stream and is sitting over very warm waters with an excellent setup for outflow. It is close to the coast, but so was Alex, and we all know what happened with him. I'm still going along the lines of a Cat 1 Hurricane w/i 36 hours. It appears to be moving southwards at the moment, but I think (in agreement with the NHC) that a westerly component should being tonight once the core of the system deepens. A Cat 1 isn't too big of a deal for these people, but I think we all realize the kind of rainfall a slow moving storm can drop. If this convective upswing continues all night, we should have Gaston in the morning.

[caneman]

Last 2 IR frames show explosive storm development over the center. This storm has felt its way towards the Gulf Stream and is sitting over very warm waters with an excellent setup for outflow. It is close to the coast, but so was Alex, and we all know what happened with him. I'm still going along the lines of a Cat 1 Hurricane w/i 36 hours. It appears to be moving southwards at the moment, but I think (in agreement with the NHC) that a westerly component should being tonight once the core of the system deepens. A Cat 1 isn't too big of a deal for these people, but I think we all realize the kind of rainfall a slow moving storm can drop. If this convective upswing continues all night, we should have Gaston in the morning.

TD7does seem to be firing back up and seems to have sunk down to around the 31 Line. Am I imagining things or is there a ULL over North FLorida. Seems like it is close enough to impede to much development. A little more sepration and it seems like it would help vent the system.

[PurdueWx80]

Last 2 IR frames show explosive storm development over the center. This storm has felt its way towards the Gulf Stream and is sitting over very warm waters with an excellent setup for outflow. It is close to the coast, but so was Alex, and we all know what happened with him. I'm still going along the lines of a Cat 1 Hurricane w/i 36 hours. It appears to be moving southwards at the moment, but I think (in agreement with the NHC) that a westerly component should being tonight once the core of the system deepens. A Cat 1 isn't too big of a deal for these people, but I think we all realize the kind of rainfall a slow moving storm can drop. If this convective upswing continues all night, we should have Gaston in the morning.

TD7does seem to be firing back up and seems to have sunk down to around the 31 Line. Am I imagining things or is there a ULL over North FLorida. Seems like it is close enough to impede to much development. A little more sepration and it seems like it would help vent the system.

There has been a small but well defined ULL over northern FL for a couple of days now. I think it is small enough that it is only acting to ventilate the system. The bigger ULL to the east of TD 7 is definitely ventilating it. 7 is still not so organized but the convection is firing back up.