Hurricanes hitting SF

[coralhead]

Sitting here in the Keys, watching Frances, some thoughts come to mind.

Take a look at the track of Donna. And the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.

There is only one scenario that really threatens the Keys and South Florida, the Donna/1935/Andrew track. The Atlantic ridge solid and fully in place, a storm that starts low and makes it only to about 20 N before getting stuck under the ridge. If it doesn't get lifted by a trough by 70W, it goes across Florida, and then if it does recurve, too late, it threatens the Gulf or the whole Eastern seaboard.

The recurve is what doomed Islamorada in 1935. The Labor Day storm's latitude was low enough to miss the middle Keys, then it turned strongly northwest and into the Upper Keys.

Looking at the track of Donna, I assume it just stayed under a ridge and went right across the middle Keys.

Andrew was as far north as the Dade Broward line, and was stuck under a powerful ridge from east of the Bahamas until it crossed Florida. It sunk about 1 or 2 degrees from the Bahamas to Florida, hitting Homestead rather than downtown Miami.

We evacuated the Upper Keys for Andrew, and by golly the thing missed us completely while just 25 miles up the road, concrete buildings were in rubble.

In a way, we are more protected here from Hurricanes than anywhere else. The mountains of Cuba and Hispanola tear apart many, if not most hurricanes that come from the south toward Florida. Troughs lift many of the higher-latitude storms away before they get here. Anything that makes it though the Caribbean and into the Gulf recurves around us (e.g., Charlie).

But this is the track we have to watch out for. One part is in place: The ridge will build westward, the storm will track under it. The latest forecast I see is to 69 W and still not north of my latitutde, 25 N.

Many people here pay attention now to the state of the Subtropical ridge and the possibility of troughs.

One last note. We had a long drought this summer -- months without rain. Main explanation -- unusually strong and persistent Atlantic high, lots of easterly flow and no tropical moisture making it up here. The rainy season didn't start until July. It was the fourth driest year on record. The others? 1935, 1960, 1992. The years of the Labor Day Hurricane, Donna, and Andrew.

I have some apprehension.

Dave

[cape_escape]

Dave, great post. I have to admit it doesn't make me feel any better...But, it was a good post none-the-less...

[Deenac813]

That was a good post. Thanks for your prospective. You know I was wondering about rainy season this year. The rain has been very slow to come around here, normally it is every afternoon.

[Stormsfury]

For a minute, I thought someone was talking about hurricanes hitting ME..

SF

[WeatherEmperor]

Very interesting first post of yours. Welcome I guess.

<RICKY>

[Deenac813]

For a minute, I thought someone was talking about hurricanes hitting ME..

SF

hehehe.. do you have your own models and tracking maps? I really needed that!

[Stormsfury]

For a minute, I thought someone was talking about hurricanes hitting ME..

SF

hehehe.. do you have your own models and tracking maps? I really needed that!

I don't have my OWN models and such per se, but my website does have a page with a slew of model runs, both global and tropical ... (although, I'd LOVE to have the model depicted on my avatar .. )

Anyways, some interesting changes and developments tonight with the model guidance tonight ... including most of the models now picking up on #7 ...

SF

[TLHR]

I seriously doubt that Frances will hit San Fransisco...

[JTD]

For a minute, I thought someone was talking about hurricanes hitting ME..

SF

hehehe.. do you have your own models and tracking maps? I really needed that!

I don't have my OWN models and such per se, but my website does have a page with a slew of model runs, both global and tropical ... (although, I'd LOVE to have the model depicted on my avatar .. )

Anyways, some interesting changes and developments tonight with the model guidance tonight ... including most of the models now picking up on #7 ...

SF

What's the link to your site Stormsfury? BTW, what are these interesting changes you hint at?

[HeatherAKC]

VERY interesting stuff, coralhead! I never considered the corelation between drought and storms! BUT I do recall that '92 was a very dry spring/early summer in South Florida. The old lore says that a dry May will mean a summer cane for South Florida. We have had a dry one. I wonder if the West coast of Fl was having drought conditions before Charley. (As that is So. Fl, too)

I am in Key Largo, too (just a weekender.....albeit every weekend!) and live in Miami (North end)

Intriguing first post! Welcome!

[Terry]

For what it is worth, the old timers in the Abacos (Bahamas) were saying in June that the conditions were the driest in eleven years. I know our cistern was the "emptiest" I can recall.

[Stormsfury]

For a minute, I thought someone was talking about hurricanes hitting ME..

SF

hehehe.. do you have your own models and tracking maps? I really needed that!

I don't have my OWN models and such per se, but my website does have a page with a slew of model runs, both global and tropical ... (although, I'd LOVE to have the model depicted on my avatar .. )

Anyways, some interesting changes and developments tonight with the model guidance tonight ... including most of the models now picking up on #7 ...

SF

What's the link to your site Stormsfury? BTW, what are these interesting changes you hint at?

http://www.stormsfury1.com

Follow the navigational toolbars...

[caneman]

VERY interesting stuff, coralhead! I never considered the corelation between drought and storms! BUT I do recall that '92 was a very dry spring/early summer in South Florida. The old lore says that a dry May will mean a summer cane for South Florida. We have had a dry one. I wonder if the West coast of Fl was having drought conditions before Charley. (As that is So. Fl, too)

I am in Key Largo, too (just a weekender.....albeit every weekend!) and live in Miami (North end)

Intriguing first post! Welcome!

No, we've been the exact opposite with record rainfalls. Fronts stalling over us, etc....... I actually correlate all the rain with Bonnie and Charley hitting West Florida. But each area could be different.

[Brent]

For a minute, I thought someone was talking about hurricanes hitting ME..

SF

So did I.

[frankthetank]

very informative post...i also thought San Francisco...its not out of the question, right?

[KeyLargoDave]

....
I am in Key Largo, too (just a weekender.....albeit every weekend!) and live in Miami (North end)

Intriguing first post! Welcome!

Thanks! Actually, I've been here awhile. Haven't posted since Isabell and had to create a new user account before I remembered the old one.

I live around mm 100, near Lake Largo. We are always looking at our walls and wondering, hmmmm, 10-foot storm surge would put the water here...
In Georges, which was very bad in the Lower Keys but not even a glancing blow here, the water of Lake Largo was up to the street in the Pilot House parking lot. There were brightly-painted coconuts (the flood washed through a craft workshop along shore) everywhere.