11PM Update S2K Special Tropical Update - Hurricane Frances

[MWatkins]

Storm2K Special Tropical Update - Hurricane Frances
6:00PM EDT 8/27/2004 - Updated 11:00PM

There are no real changes to the forecast thinking on intensity or track tonight. The eye has expanded some this evening and cloud tops have warmed...but given the upper environment and the very warm water ahead....intensification is likely over night.

Any changes in the models will likely come overnight when the new runs come out (1am or later). We'll have a full update tomorrow morning.

MW

...Although the format is the same there are major content changes in many places...

CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT

Currently...Frances appears to be moving a little more to the NW...still near 10-12 MPH. Although this a little to the east of the previous forecast track from the TPC/NHC...it should make little impact on the ultimate track of the system. In fact...most of the global models have anticipated this movement...and it may continue for another 24 hours or so...afterwards the forward motion will begin to bend back to the WNW then west over time.

Frances is now a dangerous category three hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale. The convective envelope and associated wind radius are expanding...and the eye is becoming embedded further into the deep convection. As a result...Frances is expected to become a strong Category 4 hurricane. Although changes in intensity are difficult to predict...overall intensity will begin to fluctuate soon...but Frances could become a Category 5 hurricane within the next five days.

5 DAY FORECAST MOTION

Frances should continue moving to the northwest for another 2 days time...thereafter...it will begin bending back to the west in response to a building mean-layer ridge. Now...all of the guidance suggests that Frances will miss Puerto Rico to the north...however...only a minor deviation to the west could bring the path of the dangerous hurricane close to the northeast Caribbean...so residents there should still watch Frances closely over the weekend.

The system currently located near Bermuda is expected to move to the west over the next 3 days or so. At this time significant intensification is not expected. However...neither this system...nor the one expected to move inland over SC in a couple of days...are expected to have any direct impact on the track of Frances. These systems will be too far removed...and in fact have been modeled/represented in the GFS guidance in some form over the past few days. These features are expected to clear out of the pattern well in advance of Frances.

EXTENDED MOTION

Beyond 5 days...of course...forecast errors are quite high. However...looking at the pattern presented by the global models...the Atlantic ridge will strengthen and push Frances to the west. The 12Z GFS...for example...has Frances cutting through the Florida Straights in extended period. The 12Z European model has changed somewhat and now shows the far western extent of the 500MB ridge eroding to the east of Florida...which could allow the system to recurve before approaching the Bahamas. This is the first indication of this solution from the model in a while...so we will need to see if future runs concur.

Also...the TPC plans to fly research and surveillance missions in the environment north of Frances starting on Sunday evening. This will provide the models with some additional data and the forecasts from these models should be more accurate as a result. On average...forecast track errors with the additional data are 30% less than when the models run without this information.

In any case...a possible threat to the US east coast seems very possible. It is too early to tell where...specifically. This system COULD pass into the gulf if it crosses Florida south of 28N...but that is a LONG way off.

MISC QUESTIONS

Q:When will this impact the US if it does at all?: A:It still appears this could be another 7-8 days from the US coast...however...we could see the system impact the US East Coast sooner if the forward motion is faster than officially forecast.

I will update or replace this update late tonight or in the morning. Of course...other Storm2K forecasters may tack on to this update as well.

MW

[JTD]

Excellent forecast. All the info you need is here.

[Aquawind]

Dang and I gave my Generator and AC unit to somebody in Pt. Charlotte after I was done with it..Wow Limits are gonna be pushed if this hits Florida..Put another tarp on the roof dear..Frances is coming for dinner..

Thanks MW

[msbee]

thank you
we are closely monitoring this storm in the Northern islands

[Guest]

good forecast. yep, this is all the info you need.

[hurrmia]

i heard here in miami that new td might leave some type weaken in the high near east coast.

[daisy25]

Excellent as always. Daisy

[Stormsfury]

Excellent discussion as usual, Mike ...

One thing that now REALLY concerns me is that Tropical Depression #7 has developed off of the South Carolina coast, and IF IF IF ... #7 (or Gaston) lingers around, it COULD open a weakness in the ridge and ultimately end up carving out a poleward path towards the east coast, alas ex-Henri, Isabel ...

Well, I know that working 58 hours this past week at the Post Office isn't conducive for good health and alertness after a very long week, but there appears to be that I'll be having quite a few sleepness nights in the next coming week or two ...

SF

[Anonymous]

Excellent discussion as usual, Mike ...

One thing that now REALLY concerns me is that Tropical Depression #7 has developed off of the South Carolina coast, and IF IF IF ... #7 (or Gaston) lingers around, it COULD open a weakness in the ridge and ultimately end up carving out a poleward path towards the east coast, alas ex-Henri, Isabel ...

Well, I know that working 58 hours this past week at the Post Office isn't conducive for good health and alertness after a very long week, but there appears to be that I'll be having quite a few sleepness nights in the next coming week or two ...

SF

well....I hope you're ready for some action SF !!! It will be most interesting to watch both of these systems impacting the East coast....

[crazycajuncane]

I just hope people take this storm serious. Remember that if you are in the hurricane's path, it can hit you 50-100 miles from it's projected landing. It's looking to be a Cat. 4 or 5 before it gets to Flordia. Not good!

[HURAKAN]

I hope something major happens and I can start to breathe a little easier, but at this moment my eyes are just looking to my east. By the middle of next week we should be able to say where it will go more accurately.

[Stormsfury]

well....I hope you're ready for some action SF !!! It will be most interesting to watch both of these systems impacting the East coast....

Um, how about that squall that came through about 4:00 pm this afternoon, eh? Gusty winds, infrequent BUT very VICIOUS POSITIVE strikes inducing some tremendous booming thunder ... and also, note, lightning strike shut down the Ben Sawyer Bridge due to a transformer being struck and EXPLODING ...

[Anonymous]

well....I hope you're ready for some action SF !!! It will be most interesting to watch both of these systems impacting the East coast....

Um, how about that squall that came through about 4:00 pm this afternoon, eh? Gusty winds, infrequent BUT very VICIOUS POSITIVE strikes inducing some tremendous booming thunder ... and also, note, lightning strike shut down the Ben Sawyer Bridge due to a transformer being struck and EXPLODING ...

Yep I heard that while I was trying to take a nap. I was off three days. Back to work tomorrow and I have a feeling we'll be seeing more heavy rains/thunderstorms this weekend as TD7 heads west ! Get ready for more - what we saw today was just the tip of the iceberg

[bree4bryce]

kenl & StormsFury:
Wow! I'm glad I found some locals!
It was very windy/rainy/thuderstormy this afternoon but I attributed that to normal summer popcorn showers until Rob Fowler came on with a special weather statement when they announced TD7. DH called his Dad in Mt. P and said...Ummmm we aren't going deep sea fishing tomorrow. LOL!

[Anonymous]

kenl & StormsFury:
Wow! I'm glad I found some locals!
It was very windy/rainy/thuderstormy this afternoon but I attributed that to normal summer popcorn showers until Rob Fowler came on with a special weather statement when they announced TD7. DH called his Dad in Mt. P and said...Ummmm we aren't going deep sea fishing tomorrow. LOL!

Hello bree4bryce ! Nice to meet a local. I used to live in Mt.Pleasant between 1978 and 1995 before moving up north for 7 years then relocated back to SC in 2003. Yep I'm gearing up for more action this weekend, then will be watching Francis. Indeed a busy week ahead.......

[palmettogal]

I know this is August and for those of us who remember Hugo (Sept.89), are there similarities? Not to be paranoid and I am truly a novice, I just enjoy the logic (or lack thereof) in trying to predict. Track path is somewhere similar maybe? If I remember correct Hugo was in the end steered by a high off the new england coast and some type of disturbance south of Florida. Charleston was the "trap door" of sort and path of least resistance. Just curious. Pardon the lack of knowledge on my part. Thanks as always for your input and wisdom.

Tracks http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayStorm.jsp?STORM=872&dtype=JAVA

[Stormsfury]

kenl & StormsFury:
Wow! I'm glad I found some locals!
It was very windy/rainy/thuderstormy this afternoon but I attributed that to normal summer popcorn showers until Rob Fowler came on with a special weather statement when they announced TD7. DH called his Dad in Mt. P and said...Ummmm we aren't going deep sea fishing tomorrow. LOL!

Cool deal! .... another Summerville person!!!!

Expect much of the same tomorrow ... and also note, just a couple of days ago, right around when the low (non-tropical at that time) took shape ... felt more like a wedge scenario (weak CAD) than tropical, but how things have changed ...

[Cookiely]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 280228
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2004

...FRANCES ON TRACK...EYE GETTING LARGER...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST OR ABOUT 750
MILES...1205 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...16.3 N... 50.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN