Frances Advisories

[Pebbles]

IMHO at least for the first few days..those models are pretty tightly clustered...thought i am going with NHC on this...though I wish it would I will eat crow for a month if it fishes, just don't see it happening...

[Thunder44]

Never said Bonnie didn't have an eye. You just didn't see it in the sat pics. An eye appearance on sat pics indicates a stronger storm.

Thats right which is exactly my point...you can't look at sat pictures and make a definitive statment like this is a 2 or 3. Bonnie had an eye and it didn;t show up...frances as an eye and it shows up but you can't say it is a 3 because it looks great. I bet Frnaces is a 2 or 3 within 24 hours or sooner thoughw hich will be confirmed by NHC.

I would of answered earlier but I had to go out today.

I think you misunderstand what I posted about. I'm simplying stating my opinon based on an observation. I'm not making a definitive statement, because I wasn't trying to prove it was a Cat 3. It looked like a Cat 3 this morning (and still believe it probably was then). Really, I was just stating that I thought it was intesifying.

There's no plane to go into the storm, so we now have just satellite images and estimates. The TPC upgraded it to Cat 2 this morning then a Cat 3. How do you think the TPC came to that conclusion without a plane in there?

You bring up Bonnie as an example but the fact is that Bonnie, never looked nearly as good as Frances has been looking today. And I'm sure if recon goes there will find an eye with more than 65mph winds.

[LowMug]

The last floater image looks like she is about to go through an eyewall replacement cycle. If so expect an eye with a much larger diameter by tomorrow morning.

Also an apparent jog to just north of west happened the last two frames...I hope this doesn't hold true.

[WeatherEmperor]

Its nothing compared to Andrew. Andrew was a very small and compact hurricane. However if Frances starts to deepen rapidly I fear that she can become very similar to Andrew.

<RICKY>

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah Frances is really bugging me. I get a feeling that when I wake up Monday morning I am gonna start getting more worried

<RICKY>

[canegrl04]

Everytime an eye fluctuates,or blinks,it means the hurricane is going thru intensification

[Matthew5]

When it replaces it self it will go through intensification very fast while the new eye tightens.

[abajan]

Everytime an eye fluctuates,or blinks,it means the hurricane is going thru intensification

A blinking eye, eh?...hmmm...
HOLY COW, IT'S ALIVE!

[MW98GT]

I have been seeing people compare the track of frances with andrew on here, but there is one major difference, the intensity. If I remember correctly, Andrew was a moderate TS when it started its turn back west. This thing is already a category 3. It might reach cat 5 in the next few days but just becuase it might be a cat 5, it doesnt mean it will stay that way. Maybe I am wrong though. Maybe conditions will be ripe for it to maintain a catastrophic intensity (if it even obtains it), but my question again is dont the systems kinda wear out, not that it wouldn't be a major storm still but just not cat 4/5. What is everyone's opinion?

[crazycajuncane]

>>>That is what Frances just did.

[Guest]

If the UL conditions are right in the days ahead the water is plenty warm to support a catastrophic hurricane.

[canegrl04]

Shes got boiling water to support her strength from the Islands,to Florida coast,and into the Gulf . I think we may be looking at a hurricane that will be talked about for ages,like Gilbert,Mitch and Camille.I hope Frances doesn't get that strong

[cape_escape]

Seeing how I'm in the Gulf...I really hope not!!!!

[feederband]

as long as she keeps on moving and doen't hit any major shear. skys the limit on this one....

[Valkhorn]

Very true. Hurricanes are like fire. As long as they have fuel to keep them going (warm water, no shear, favorable UL conditions) they'll stay as strong as possible for as long as possible.

Cut off a hurricane's fuel (landfall, shear, etc.) and the hurricane will die.

The interesting thing of course is that extremely favorable conditions to support a Category 5 in the Atlantic Basin have never lasted longer than 3 days. Hurricane Dog in 1950 lasted as a Cat 5 for 60 hours.

In the Pacific Basin, super typhoons can usually last much longer since they have way more fuel.

[NorthGaWeather]

Allen was a Cat 5 multiple times.

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/2345 UTC 16.0N 50.0W T5.0/5.5 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean

Below is the chart of the wind profile of all the T numbers.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CI MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS
2 30 KTS 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's probably just going to hold it's own at least for the next few hours as this eyewall replacement occurs. After the new eyewall becomes the primary eyewall, then it could intensify rapidly once again. But rest assure this is not going to be the only eyewall replacement cycle.

Jim

[dixiebreeze]

This, from the 8:05 NHC Discussion:

FRANCES BECOMES THE 3RD MAJOR HURRICANE TO FORM IN AUGUST... THE
FIRST TIME THAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE 1950. IN ADDITION... THIS IS
THE EARLIEST THAT THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE YEAR HAS
FORMED SINCE 1916.

[Air Force Met]

This, from the 8:05 NHC Discussion:

FRANCES BECOMES THE 3RD MAJOR HURRICANE TO FORM IN AUGUST... THE
FIRST TIME THAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE 1950. IN ADDITION... THIS IS
THE EARLIEST THAT THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE YEAR HAS
FORMED SINCE 1916.

Oh...yeah...