AFD NWS Melbourne

[TampaFl]

Interesting comment about Frances.
Thoughts and comments welcomed.


FXUS62 KMLB 271754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH TONIGHT...ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
WELL FORMED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AT 1745Z WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL
FORM OVER THE INTERIOR..WITH INITIAL SLOW MOTION INLAND. AS
CONVECTION BECOMES DEEPER AND TAPS 10-15 KT SW-W FLOW ALOFT...MOTION
WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST. PRESENCE OF SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS NEAR THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. REMNANT BOUNDARIES/OUTFLOWS MAY PROMOTE 20-30 PERCENT
COVERAGE OF EARLY-MID EVENING STORMS.

SAT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TO A
POSITION NEAR THE GA COAST. WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTERACTING WITH THE ECSB WILL
PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
ONLY 2.32 INCHES OF RAIN ARE NEEDED AT DAB TO BREAK THE AUGUST
RECORD OF 19.89 INCHES SET IN 1953. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS INFLUENCE ON
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

SUN-TUE...LATEST GFS/ETA/UKMET GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL HELP TO STEER THE
LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES BELOW CLIMO MON-TUE AS MUCH OF THE
FOCUS REMAINS NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE STATE.

WED-FRI...FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ONSHORE AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO HURRICANE FRANCES AS THE
LATEST PROJECTED PATH TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. SEE TPC
STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS STRENGTHENING
HURRICANE.
&&

.MARINE...NON-HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WILL BUMP SEAS UP TO 2 TO 3 FT DURING
THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 89 74 89 / 30 40 30 40
MCO 74 90 74 90 / 20 40 30 40
MLB 73 88 75 88 / 20 30 20 40
VRB 72 87 74 87 / 20 30 20 40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPRATT
LONG TERM...HIRSCH



Robert

[Josephine96]

Thank you Robert..

If it gets to the Bahamas.. then it would mean Florida.. LOOK OUT..

[Weatherboy1]

EXTENDED FORECAST...THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD GET PICK UP BY THE NEXT
FRONT COMING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAN STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THE LOWS POPS OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA BACK INTO A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND
ALLOW FOR THE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE FRANCES
LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING.

Neither of these discussions is sounding a major alarm yet. But I have to tell you, the synoptic setup described favors a storm moving very close to or over FL. A front is going to grab TD7, then sweep NE, leaving a ridge to build in behind it by midweek ... when 5 days from now, Frances is forecast to be close to the SE Bahamas. That is a recipe for something moving due W or WNW either S of FL or over FL and into the Gulf.

Not liking this at all...

[canegrl04]

YIKES I sure hope Florida doesn't get hit with another major.I don't think two whoppers have hit the state in the same season,have they?

[Brent]

AFD's are never going to sound the alarm for a hurricane 7 days away...

[rainstorm]

i dont think the front will grab gaston. in fact, i think gaston or its remnants will be around awhile in ga or north fla

[NorthGaWeather]

I seriously doubt the remnants will be around. I expect these remnants to be over SC and get pushed NE.