Classic 'Cane.....

[dixiebreeze]

is Frances, and it doesn't appear she is in any hurry to head farther north:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Josephine96]

She most certainly is a classic 1..

Another 1 of those where you look up the word hurricane and you'd see that picture

[golter]

Compared to west - wnw call, I think she is progressing nicely north. If she hits the 20th parallel before 55W, I think the chances of a fish escalate enormously.

[Guest]

Frances is looking really great! shes classic all right.

[canegrl04]

Normally,that may be true,but the strong ridge is influencng Frances,and it will push her more Westward after a couple of days.Even a hurricane can't bust through a ridge

[B-Bear]

Compared to west - wnw call, I think she is progressing nicely north. If she hits the 20th parallel before 55W, I think the chances of a fish escalate enormously.

I'm confused. Why would you say that? All the models now appear to be in agreement that Frances will move more westerly as the ridge develops ahead of her. Even if she did move more north for a while, why would that make her more likely to head out to see? I don't see anybody calling for that scenario at this point.

[Skywatch_NC]

Frances is the name of the woman who bought my folks' and I's house in Roanoke Rapids, NC...I imagine she's taking some good ribbing from some peeps including her realtor daughter! lol

Eric

[golter]

I say that because the further north she goes the evidence that the ridge is not as strong as predicted. I agree that models are not calling for her to go east of 20N 55W, but they were calling for her to be tracking more west than nw. Its my unscientific observations that models tend to have "left bias" and they move more and more east as time goes on. Also, models are not factoring in the effects of the two other systems and their effect on the ridge.

[WeatherEmperor]

I understand what you mean. However by the time Frances is well within striking distance of the US, those two other systems will have been loooong gone and the ridge will have had plenty of time to establish itself. Just look at the 18Z models and see how good their agreement has become. But ofcoarse we just have to wait a few more days and perhaps by late Sunday night we will know much more about Frances' path.

<RICKY>

I say that because the further north she goes the evidence that the ridge is not as strong as predicted. I agree that models are not calling for her to go east of 20N 55W, but they were calling for her to be tracking more west than nw. Its my unscientific observations that models tend to have "left bias" and they move more and more east as time goes on. Also, models are not factoring in the effects of the two other systems and their effect on the ridge.

[Weatherboy1]

I say that because the further north she goes the evidence that the ridge is not as strong as predicted. I agree that models are not calling for her to go east of 20N 55W, but they were calling for her to be tracking more west than nw. Its my unscientific observations that models tend to have "left bias" and they move more and more east as time goes on. Also, models are not factoring in the effects of the two other systems and their effect on the ridge.

The NHC never said that in this currnet time period, Frances would progress W. Forecasters accurately predicted the storm would slow down and turn more to the NW for a couple of days due to a big low skating by way to the N and a shortwave in the central Atlantic. But to say that its current movement negates the possibility of the longer-term forecast of the models or the NHC is simply unwise. IF the storm doesn't turn back to the W in 48 hours, then it may be that the ridge isn't as strong as forecast. But I doubt that will be the case.