Comments on the Atlantic (27.08.2004 1831 UTC)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

F 27.08.2004 (FRI AUG 27 2004)
1831 UTC (01:31 PM CDT)
...CORRECTED AT 1917 UTC (02:17 PM CDT)...


GENERAL DISCUSSION

As I analyzed the satellite picture earlier, I noticed how active the Atlantic is becoming. It is very odd, as well, at the sustained rapid intensification of Frances, and the possible rapid development of 07L as well. We shall see how this weekend pans out with Frances, 07L, and a possible 08L as well.


HURRICANE FRANCES (06L)

I am very concerned about this system. There is no doubt in my mind this will be a major hurricane at 5 PM based on the satellite images coming through. The CDO is expanding, the eye is becoming more circular, and a ring of very deep convection has formed around the eye. This should continue through 120 hours as Frances is expected to be in VERY favorable conditions (See below for hourly-based intensity forecasts). In terms of where Frances might go...is very questionable for the islands. Currently, Frances is near 16 N in latitude...about even with the northern tip of the island of Dominica. Based on this information, and the direction that Frances is currently moving, I believe that the islands of Dominica, Guadeloupe, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Antigua will be safe from the brunt of Frances. However, the islands of Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Martin, the British Virgin Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands still need to keep their eyes on Frances, as she could still clip those islands if her track doesn't move at any more of a northerly angle. In terms of Puerto Rico, I believe that the western half of the island will be safe from the brunt of Frances...however...if Frances moves through the BVI and USVI, then it will most likely clip the NE portions of Puerto Rico similar to Hugo in 1989...which does include the city of San Juan. Beyond Puerto Rico...the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas will most likely be affected by a very intense Frances. As I look at the models, it is apparent that the Bermuda High will reach towards and beyond the U.S. Coastline. My feeling is that throughout the time period of 96+ hours, the track of Frances will be very similar to that of Andrew (1992) or FL Keys (1935)...and depending on the current amount of northerly movement with the system...should either clip the FL Keys or strike Palm Beach, Broward, or Miami-Dade counties. NOTE: This forecast is very far in advance and should be taken with caution due to the large amount of possible error with the prognostication.

WIND INTENSITY FORECASTS:
INITIAL: 90 KT Category: 2
NEXT ADVISORY: 105 KT Category: 3
12 HR: 110 KT Category: 3
24 HR: 120 KT Category: 4
36 HR: 130 KT Category: 4
48 HR: 135 KT* Category: 4
72 HR: 135 KT* Category: 4
96 HR: 135 KT* Category: 4
120 HR: 135 KT* Category: 4

*NOTE: At this point, Frances will most likely be going through several concentric eyewall cycles that may vary the intensity between 110 KT and 150 KT. Also, if Frances should strike Puerto Rico, the intensity will most likely decrease and the intensity forecast should be adjusted at that time to make for the difference.

U.S. General Landfall Probabilities

SOUTH FLORIDA AND FLORIDA KEYS: 44%
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA: 29%
GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA: 8%
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS: 19%


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07L

07L has become much better organized through today to be classified at 5 PM. This has happened quite rapidly based on the system's on/off history. I believe that this rapid development will continue, similar to the development history of Frances. As 07L turns to the U.S. Coast on late Saturday/Sunday, expect it to be a strong tropical storm with winds between 60 and 70 mph. Landfall should occur along the Georgia coast...near Brunswick or Savannah. Expect heavy rain and gusty winds during the time of landfall.

WIND INTENSITY FORECAST
INITIAL: 30 KT (ESTIMATED)
12 HR: 40 KT
24 HR: 45 KT
36 HR: 50 KT
48 HR: 55 KT (LANDFALL)

U.S. LANDFALL PROBABILITIES
GEORGIA: 67%
SOUTH CAROLINA FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO CHARLESTON: 33%


INVEST 98L

This system has become better organized throughout the day and could become a tropical depression later tonight or sometime tomorrow. If the system remains where it is through Sunday/Monday, it is possible that Frances could begin to have an effect on it, including, but not limited to, the shearing and/or complete absorption of the system.


***END

EDIT: CORRECTED 170 KT TO 150 KT IN FRANCES DISCUSSION.

[Pebbles]

Did you just put between 110 and 170 KNOTS!!!??? please tell my your kidding! *goggles*

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Oops typo! I meant 170 MPH...which is 150 KT....sorry!

[Pebbles]

Whew thanks...that's better ...not good...but better then the 170 knots *winks*

[Josephine96]

About a 30 percent chance of a Central Florida or North Florida strike huh..

Maybe we should {like we are anyway}stay focused on this 1..