Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
Friday August 27, 2004 5am
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Hurricane Frances has continued to organize and is now a very strong category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph. I expect it to become a category 2 hurricane in the next few hours.
Frances is moving towards the west-northwest at 13 mph. I expect this motion to continue. Infact, I am ALMOST right on track with the NHC track, except, I am calling for it to be futher west in five days then in there projected track. I expect the ridge to build enough to SHOVE this system west in 72 hours. Folks, each advisory puts it closer and closer to the USA.
As for intensity, my intensity forecast is raised slightly due to the current organization. I am FULLY in mind for a major hurricane in 24-36 hours. A category 4 in 72 hrs and beyond. It appears that the shear is weakening. Therefore, I do not expect a weakening of the system 72-96 hours out.
NOTE: FRANCES HOLDS THE POTENTIAL OF FLOYD AND ANDREW. WATCH THIS SYSTEM CAREFULLY...PLEASE.
12 HRS-- 14.9N-- 51.0W-- 90 kt
24 HRS-- 17.0N-- 53.8W-- 100 kt
36 HRS-- 18.5N-- 55.8W-- 105 kt
48 HRS-- 19.8N-- 58.8W-- 110 kt
72 HRS-- 21.3N-- 62.0W-- 115 kt
96 HRS-- 23.0N-- 66.3W-- 120 kt
120 HRS- 23.5N--70.3W-- 125 kt
