12z GFS continues west-Threat Increasing

[Portastorm]

Wthrman13: You're right. I was looking at the wrong map. When I reviewed the 850mb map at 276h, it does hit La. But my longer-range consistency argument still stands.

Calm: You're right, too! Shorter term, GFS has been consistent. None of us should hang our hat on any model run beyond 120 hrs anyhow. I think its safe to say that anyone from Brownsville to Virginia should keep their eyes on the tropics, especially now.

[WXextreme]

I remember Hurricane Lilly weakened just before making landfall in Louisiana. I hope it does weaken.

We prayed alot down here for that storm and God obviously answered. That is the only explanation I can think of. I was sitting at home right in the bullseye. Then came our miracle.

[hurrmia]

i live in miami i donot like that track that is take if high build as strong as their saying it could it will move west we hope that short way will form next week!!!!!!!!!!

[Air Force Met]

I think the GFS has the storm center too far south...by about 200 miles or so...and the positioning is probably not right either.

I do think, however, it has a good handle on the synoptic pattern with the ridge over the eastern US. The rest is just timing and a minor error here and there makes a big difference down the stream. Synoptically...I don't see how this thing misses land.

[Johnny]

"Houston, we have a problem"

Kidding of course...or am I? lol

[hurrmia]

sorry for my message it wrong board message

[Portastorm]

Yes AFM, stranger things have happened ... but it is rather hard to imagine Frances not hitting land somewhere either in the GOM or Atlantic coastline.

I'm sort of curious about the idea PurdueWx80 submitted earlier in that systems 97L and 98L might pump enough heat into the Atlantic ridge to force Frances on a more westbound track later in the period.

Any thoughts?

[HurricaneJim]

If it slides past FL and Cuba and gets into the GOM intact, all of that hot water is going to explode it into a Camile style monster.

Right now with a run of the mill track into the Atlaantic coast, it's still going to be a booger. Slow moving, sucking up a lot of energy, cocentric eye behavior already evident.

Push it over 88 degree + water and it's just gonna go off like a bomb.

Whatever the track, it's gonna blow high winds and buckets of rain for hundreds of miles around.

SE US hang on.

[Weatherboy1]

The UKMET track just keeps shifting further east. Latest 12 UTC run has the storm at 24.4N 72.4 on 9/2. With the models, the trend is your friend (or in this case, not your friend), and the trend on all these runs (GFS, UKMET, etc.) is further and further east. The latest UKMET and GFDL runs do hint at a slight bend to the right at the very end of their tracks. But it's not much to hang your hat on. NOGAPS still wants to recurve this thing to the N around 65W or so, but it has been the right of track outlier for a long time.

I believe it's getting almost to the point where someone in the US is going to get hit, no question about it. The question is "Who?" FL? NC? Gulf? Too early to say.

[c5Camille]

Yikes !!

[dixiebreeze]

OR... it could hang a left and wiggle through the Florida Straits and into the GOM. Not an unlikely scenario, IMHO.

[JTD]

The UKMET track just keeps shifting further east. Latest 12 UTC run has the storm at 24.4N 72.4 on 9/2. With the models, the trend is your friend (or in this case, not your friend), and the trend on all these runs (GFS, UKMET, etc.) is further and further east. The latest UKMET and GFDL runs do hint at a slight bend to the right at the very end of their tracks. But it's not much to hang your hat on. NOGAPS still wants to recurve this thing to the N around 65W or so, but it has been the right of track outlier for a long time.

I believe it's getting almost to the point where someone in the US is going to get hit, no question about it. The question is "Who?" FL? NC? Gulf? Too early to say.

You mean west right, not east?

[Weatherboy1]

You mean west right, not east?

Just goes to show what happens when you type too fast! Your brain can't keep up.

[JTD]

You mean west right, not east?

Just goes to show what happens when you type too fast! Your brain can't keep up.

LOL. No problem.

But my heart jumped near the end of your post. Two models are now pointing to recurvature right?

That'd be great!

[JTD]

You mean west right, not east?

Just goes to show what happens when you type too fast! Your brain can't keep up.

LOL. No problem.

But my heart jumped near the end of your post. Two models are now pointing to recurvature right?

That'd be great!

[Patrick99]

Based on what it looks like and what it's doing RIGHT NOW, I just don't see it ever getting to any part of the USA, period. But, that is my now-cast. I don't really see right now what's going to bend it so far back to the west, but I suppose that player isn't on the field yet.

[Brent]

Sorry, I don't see a recurvature enough to miss the U.S. The ridge will be too strong.

[canegrl04]

Frances has USA written all over her.Its just a question of where,and how strong she will be when she makes landfall

[Huckster]

Based on what it looks like and what it's doing RIGHT NOW, I just don't see it ever getting to any part of the USA, period. But, that is my now-cast. I don't really see right now what's going to bend it so far back to the west, but I suppose that player isn't on the field yet.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in across the western Atlantic. The exact position and strength of the high will determine just how great the westward turn is. Even though there is still significant disagreement where this thing eventually ends up going, like the GFS some times taking it into Texas and at other times into Newfoundland, if I remember correctly, the bad thing is it's looking less and less likely to miss land altogether. Even though that is a disparity of over 2000 miles, the fact is, it would still end up hitting land somewhere. If the the difference in that extended position was between the Outerbanks and 2000 miles east of their, I'd say we'd have less to worry about. Hope that makes sense.

[Patrick99]

Sure, it makes sense. I was just looking at a now perspective - looking out my window in Miami right now, I see weak easterly flow, weak ridging. Nowhere near the strong high pressure setup that brought Andrew here, or even Georges...so my feeling is no Florida hit, unless something changes downstream in the next week. We'll see if it passes through that famed "Box" north of Hispaniola...if it does that then I'll give it a better chance of hitting FL.

If I was a betting man, I'd go with the Outer Banks scenario, similar to so many others.