Frances Advisories

[Brent]

Thanks for the update.

[mf_dolphin]

Great write-up as always Mike!

[Wthrman13]

Folks, that's not an NHC prediction on that website, despite it having the same format as the NHC forecast intensity. Rarely, if ever, will you ever see the NHC forecast that strong of a hurricane that far out in time.

[James]

Thanks

[James]

Isabel was at 160 mph at 1 point last year then she weakened..

Also, she wasn't expected to reach that intensity. If my memory serves me correctly it reached 150mph, where it was expected to stay and then the next advisory bumped the storm up to 160mph.

[cape_escape]

Thank you!

[Josephine96]

I do believe you're right James

[kevin]

I really don't see how people thought it was a NHC prediction. Try and state that more often though dude, because quite frankly... I don't know your credentials.

[RevDodd]

'Preciate it!

[Rainband]

Great Job

[Weatherboy1]

I saw another reference in a pre-season article this year about the "Lushine Line," which I believe is named after a long-time Miami NWS meteorologist who is retiring after this season. That's a line drawn N-S along the 68W longitude line between 19N and 26N -- the gist of the article was that most tropical systems that pass through that line end up hitting the FL peninsula. Sorry I don't still have the story link.

[LowMug]

These wobbles are increasing considerably compared to other storms...

Could this be due to the ridge beginning to show signs of strengthening?

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah these wobbles are very common for systems like this. But if you try to average out the motion I still believe it averages out to WNW or just a tad bit NW but more so WNW.

<RICKY>

[rainstorm]

it is caused by a weak ridge and slow movement

[hurrmia]

good report mw

[Mattie]

I've seen other such "theories" using the history of where the longitude/latitudes are crossed as to where the storms hit. Some also says depending on those theories can also predict strength. I dunno - Someone needs to write out all of the little theories and work them out against storm history and see. (I definitely am not volunteering, but I do think it would make an interesting read).

[GalvestonDuck]

Well done, Mike!

[jlauderdal]

Since I will probably not get a chance this afternoon to answer some questions that have been asked elsewhere...I'll do my best to anticipate these questions in the following S2K update format. This is not official information...but does consider that Frances will stay close to the NHC forecast track and within the associated cone of uncertainty. Also...forecast errors at 5 days are 300 nautical miles...and hurricanes are not points but large weather systems.

CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT

Currently...Frances appears to be moving to the WNW to NW near 10 MPH. This motion has been anticipated by the global models and the NHC for some time and does not represent any change in thinking in terms of the ultimate track of this system. Stronger hurricanes do wobble...so short-term jogs to the N then W are completely possible and should not be read as a true change in motion.

Intensification appears to have leveled off just a bit from earlier today...however...given the very impressive outflow and warm sea-surface temps ahead of the system intensification to a category three hurricane should occur within the next 12 hours. Frances is expected to remain a dangerous Category 3 hurricane throughout the foreseeable future...but could very well be stronger than that by day 5.

5 DAY FORECAST MOTION

Frances should continue moving to the northwest for another 2 days time...thereafter...it will begin bending back to the west in response to a building 500MB ridge. The GFS guidance currently coming out suggests that the track should stay clear of Puerto Rico on the northeast side...but there is still considerable uncertainty about that...so residents there should still watch Frances closely over the weekend.

The system currently located near Bermuda is expected to move to the west over the next 3 days or so. At this time significant intensification is not expected but this system could become a tropical depression or tropical storm. However...neither this system...nor the one expected to move inland over SC in a couple of days...are expected to have any direct impact on the track of Frances. These systems will be too far removed...and in fact have been modeled/represented in the GFS guidance in some form over the past few days. These features are expected to clear out of the pattern well in advance of Frances.

EXTENDED MOTION

Beyond 5 days...of course...forecast errors are quite high. However...looking at the pattern presented by the global models...the Atlantic ridge will strengthen and push Frances to the west. The 6Z GFS...for example...had Frances missing Florida to the SOUTH in the extended period. The 00Z European model places a well-developed hurricane in the south/east Bahamas and a well-established 500MB ridge spanning into the southeast US. So...a possible threat to the US east coast seems very possible. It is too early to tell where...specifically. This system COULD pass into the gulf if it crosses Florida south of 28N...but that is a LONG way off.

MISC QUESTIONS

Q:When will this impact the US if it does at all?: A:It still appreas this could be another 8 days from the US coast...however...we could see the system impact the US East Coast sooner if the forward motion is faster than officially forecast.

I will update this post with model information as it comes out (after 4PM today probably). Of course...other Storm2K forecasters may tack on to this update as well.

MW

Very articulate summary. Quite frankly, all the bases are covered here so everybody can turn their computers off and come back tomorrow because there really isn't anything left to discuss. Now for you fisherman out there notice how MW hasn't talked about a feature to knock down that ridge..thats because there isnt any on the horizon.
Thanks MW.

[LCfromFL]

Well said! Thank you!

[c5Camille]

she's really starting to get her act together...
notice the center of Frances deepening...
if she keeps this up... RUN FOR YOUR LIVES ! ! !

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html