12z GFS continues west-Threat Increasing

[Vortex]

The run to run consistency has been excellent. The bad new is this dangerous storm will pose a serious threat to the NE carribean islands,PR and the rest of the greater antilles. Long-term the se bahamas will be impacted. If the overall synoptic set-up large scale remains unchanged then Francis will continue west across portions of Cuba/Florida and into the GOM. This storm IS NOT going out to sea and unfortunately will impact many many people.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[Josephine96]

Looks like you may be right Vortex.. It could be a long next 5-7 days for us nervous Floridians here..

[Lowpressure]

I am not buying the path that far south, and not at a due west crossing of Florida into the gulf. Track is too far south. N.Fla and the Carolinas seems to be a better bet. What is the troughing picture like at day 6-10? I will check this out and post, as it may be key.

[sunny]

We are keeping a close eye on Frances here. Thank you.

[snowflake]

Do you think there is a chance that it will weaken before making landfall? That is if it does make a landfall.

[Josephine96]

If Frances does get too strong.. then there probably will be some intensity fluctuations.. I think she will be a major hurricane wherever she ends up..

[Stormcenter]

I am not buying the path that far south, and not at a due west crossing of Florida into the gulf. Track is too far south. N.Fla and the Carolinas seems to be a better bet. What is the troughing picture like at day 6-10? I will check this out and post, as it may be key.

You may not be buying it but unfortunately it may actually happen ala Andrew. Oh well still lots and lots of time to watch and analyze.

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont think there is supposed to be any sort of troughing coming to the east coast next week. This weekend like around Saturday/Sunday a front is supposed to be moving to the EC but after that moves out a ridge is forecast to build in. I saw the 6-10 day upper-level flow on Ch7 news where Bill Kamal mentioned this.
I could be wrong though cause anything can happen.

<RICKY>

[Portastorm]

No offense Vortex, but to say the GFS has been consistent about Frances is just not an accurate statement.

As I mentioned in an earlier e-mail, today's 0z run took Frances under Florida, into the mid-Gulf coast, up through Ga., and off the NC coast. The 6z run took Frances just south of Brownsville, TX. Now the 12z run takes Frances just off the SE Bahamas and then recurves her into the Atlantic.

Now much consistency at all in my book.

[Brent]

YIKES!!!

[Josephine96]

Yikes what? lol

[snowflake]

I remember Hurricane Lilly weakened just before making landfall in Louisiana. I hope it does weaken.

[Brent]

Yikes what? lol

Uh... Frances heading towards Florida.

[Wthrman13]

No offense Vortex, but to say the GFS has been consistent about Frances is just not an accurate statement.

As I mentioned in an earlier e-mail, today's 0z run took Frances under Florida, into the mid-Gulf coast, up through Ga., and off the NC coast. The 6z run took Frances just south of Brownsville, TX. Now the 12z run takes Frances just off the SE Bahamas and then recurves her into the Atlantic.

Now much consistency at all in my book.

Well, you are not going to get any kind of consistency for tropical cyclones in ANY model that far out (i.e. > 7 days).

[Josephine96]

Oh..

thank you

[Lowpressure]

NWS Washington D.C says the trough may hang up for a while from this weekends frontal passage up here. But by Thursday the trough in the NW should encourage High Pressure over the EC. It looks to be a setup for a landfalling hurricane somewhere, we will see where.

[Anonymous]

Care to predicted possible strike locations? ie. Port St Lucie to Miami?

[Josephine96]

sure why not

[Wthrman13]

Also, the GFS doesn't recurve Frances anyway. Makes landfall in Louisiana at 276 hours (Day 12!):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

[CalmBeforeStorm]

No offense Vortex, but to say the GFS has been consistent about Frances is just not an accurate statement.

As I mentioned in an earlier e-mail, today's 0z run took Frances under Florida, into the mid-Gulf coast, up through Ga., and off the NC coast. The 6z run took Frances just south of Brownsville, TX. Now the 12z run takes Frances just off the SE Bahamas and then recurves her into the Atlantic.

Now much consistency at all in my book.

First, the 12z GFS takes it into the Gulf. Second, the model has been extremely consistant in the 5 day term taking the storm generally just above the islands. It's only after that that the GFS has varied but you must understand that a long term forecast is extremely inacuarte for any model and with the GFS it has been depicting a weakness in the ridge off the SE coast and lately losing that weakness. That alone can make a difference between a miss for the CONUS or a gulf storm.