will the models change now

[Guest]

Holy cow one system moving south another southwest and Fransis waiting in the back. The models got to reflect these other two systems.

[Aquawind]

Well they didn't reflect both systems before..they will now and yes it should cause some model adjustments..how much depends on strength..not much ATM..down the road if they strengthen it's possible imho..

[Air Force Met]

The latest GFS is taking 97 into account. 98 is also there but not very deep. Either way...both should be moving out and the ridge building back in over the SE US before Frances gets there.

[Josephine96]

This ridge definitely is a strong 1.. May keep Frances going towards Florida or the SE coast

[Aquawind]

Would the fact that these systems are now Invests, imply that they are stronger or more credible and thus will be reflected more with the newer model runs? Which models would be more affected..Globals or Tropicals? Specificaly if anyone has time..At this point any change in Frances track would be very minor..if they strengthen and hang the more possible a real change could be possible..I do agree that the timming key..as Frances is along way off yet and no going anywhere fast..even with their current movement.

[Air Force Met]

This ridge definitely is a strong 1.. May keep Frances going towards Florida or the SE coast

I agree...and unlike Isable from last year...there is good synoptic reasoning for that. There is no major shortwave or longwave approaching that will weaken it significantly. There will be the occasional minor sw that will tug it poleward but the overall track should be b/w w and nw until landfall.

[Josephine96]

For once AFM you and I agree on something lol.. I remember last year when we couldn't agree on much of anything lol..

[dhweather]

We could all hope the GFS is right and carry Frances over the terrain
of Haiti/DR, then Cuba, keeping her weak.

I've got a gut feeling that Frances might make it into the Gulf, as a cat 3+

[Air Force Met]

We could all hope the GFS is right and carry Frances over the terrain
of Haiti/DR, then Cuba, keeping her weak.

I've got a gut feeling that Frances might make it into the Gulf, as a cat 3+

I think the GFS is too far south. While I can see a GOM scenario as a possibility, I don't think it will be thru the straights. If it does...it will cross Florida first.

[Rainband]

We could all hope the GFS is right and carry Frances over the terrain
of Haiti/DR, then Cuba, keeping her weak.

I've got a gut feeling that Frances might make it into the Gulf, as a cat 3+

I think the GFS is too far south. While I can see a GOM scenario as a possibility, I don't think it will be thru the straights. If it does...it will cross Florida first.

Man that would be terrible, Florida has seen quite enough for a while

[Guest]

You better put a new td on the chart for the models. I believe we got new one now. Look! http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin ... .cgi?vis-e

[Josephine96]

I also in turn think the only way Frances will make the Gulf is if she comes through Florida 1st..

[btangy]

That's a nice view of all three systems... certainly looks like we'll have another TD soon.

[Aquawind]

Well they didn't reflect both systems before..they will now and yes it should cause some model adjustments..how much depends on strength..not much ATM..down the road if they strengthen it's possible imho..

Well I should have put an IF in there as it reads..I was full of $%^& for posting that lie..Sorry for that..I try not to post Bull$%^& facts or say Bull$%^& statements..unless in obvious good humour of course..I hate it when opinion..right or wrong is replaced for the facts as much as anyone else..