However, my thought was this. We're almost to the anniversary of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. If Frances makes landfall, it'll probably be around the first Wed. of September, almost a week before Labor Day.
But, I wonder if Frances has the chance of becoming similar to the 1935 Hurricane in that, well if the ridge builds back as strong as it's forecast it could very well plow into the Bahamas and through the straight between Florida and Cuba.
If this happens, it'll be a nightmare for Key West, most definately.
But I'm curious. What are the chances that this thing plows due west on a track even further south than Andrew into the GOM?
Above is an image of the track of the 1935 Hurricane.
Above is an image of the track of Andrew in 1992.
Even of more interest is Betsy in 1965.
Note how two of the systems jogged NW for a while, then suddenly veered due west or even southwest. As to the 1935 system it didn't develop (or wasn't noted) until right before it slammed into the Keys. Nevertheless it went due west, then curved.
One thing we do know however is that if the ridge does build like it's forecast to, Frances will make a beeline West. And, the only time it will make a beeline north (and where it does it) is going to be how far west the Ridge is.
Chances are it'll be a very strong ridge, so I honestly think Frances will take a southerly route into the GOM. The most southern point is Texas and south Florida, but for me the most northern point Frances could possibly hit is South Carolina.
What do you guys think?
