ominous looking model map for Puerto Rico.. :(

[ericinmia]

This can't be good...
-Eric

[Guest]

nhc maps north north and north

[Ola]

It is very interesting that the NHC has discounted the so called "tropical" models for this one on every run for the last couple of days. Im not saying they should not, because that map does look weird and it would be very very uncommon for a system to do that in that area, but I would like an explanation of why they have discounted the BAM models after 48 hours for many runs already. Just to learn why they are not trusted on this scenario. I guess it could be something about those models not being able to predict intensity of high presure ridges as the Globals can.

[ericinmia]

It is very interesting that the NHC has discounted the so called "tropical" models for this one on every run for the last couple of days. Im not saying they should not, because that map does look weird and it would be very very uncommon for a system to do that in that area, but I would like an explanation of why they have discounted the BAM models after 48 hours for many runs already. Just to learn why they are not trusted on this scenario. I guess it could be something about those models not being able to predict intensity of high presure ridges as the Globals can.

Hmm
The model map just updated... and noe the A98E is pointing on a more north-west direction... This is the same model that originally for days and days, had this storm hooking south into the carribean.

1. Before it was picking up on something suggesting to it that the storm would be forced south.

2. Now whatever that was is gone, or has changed to a large degree. The storm is now headed on an flipped vector, from its original.

-Eric

[rbaker]

this map shown is already 2 degrees about 125 miles off to the east of where the storm is now. However, if frances was to take a nw jog it would put it on these tracks again.

[x-y-no]

Hmm
The model map just updated... and noe the A98E is pointing on a more north-west direction... This is the same model that originally for days and days, had this storm hooking south into the carribean.

1. Before it was picking up on something suggesting to it that the storm would be forced south.

2. Now whatever that was is gone, or has changed to a large degree. The storm is now headed on an flipped vector, from its original.

-Eric

Yeah, isn't that strange? And the A98E incorporates a lot of climatological statistics, which makes the previous track even stranger since I've never seen anything like it.

Personally, I've come to the conclusion that this model isn't worth paying attention to.

[TLHR]

I think PR will be ok.

Other models I've seen take it north of PR.

[Weatherboy1]

It is very interesting that the NHC has discounted the so called "tropical" models for this one on every run for the last couple of days. Im not saying they should not, because that map does look weird and it would be very very uncommon for a system to do that in that area, but I would like an explanation of why they have discounted the BAM models after 48 hours for many runs already. Just to learn why they are not trusted on this scenario. I guess it could be something about those models not being able to predict intensity of high presure ridges as the Globals can.

If I'm not mistaken (I posted this in another thread as well), the tropical models (Bamm, etc.) are all run off the GFS forecast grid. That means they are all based on the same global forecast, with subtle variations in how Frances would react within that environment. Other globals, such as the UKMET and NOGAPS, are much further N with the system ... though the UKMET has shifted radically to the W from its original forecast. So, they're including those outputs into their thinking (as well as the GFDL, which is further N).

Bottom line -- at this point, I think it is prudent for them to still forecast a more northerly track ... but warn in their discussions (as they did at 11) that the possibility exists for the track to be shifted further south. I think a lot will depend on what the 12 UTC global runs show.

[Josephine96]

I think PR won't be affected by Frances too much

[Ola]

If I'm not mistaken (I posted this in another thread as well), the tropical models (Bamm, etc.) are all run off the GFS forecast grid. That means they are all based on the same global forecast, with subtle variations in how Frances would react within that environment. Other globals, such as the UKMET and NOGAPS, are much further N with the system ... though the UKMET has shifted radically to the W from its original forecast. So, they're including those outputs into their thinking (as well as the GFDL, which is further N).

Bottom line -- at this point, I think it is prudent for them to still forecast a more northerly track ... but warn in their discussions (as they did at 11) that the possibility exists for the track to be shifted further south. I think a lot will depend on what the 12 UTC global runs show.

That is what I was looking for. Thanks. They are run from the GFS, but now, why does the GFDL has such a different track, I thought it was run from the GFS too. ????

[9:48]

x-y, the A98E insisted on Isabel hooking SW though the Caribbean for a Venezuelan landfall last year as well.