Any predictions on SC/NC for the weekend? I think there's..

[Steve]

a good shot at Gaston. The upper air improved last night, and it may be just a matter of time. Convective feedback does not appear to have begun yet, but it may tonight or tomorrow.

I checked Bastardi's site this morning, and he believes it will probably go. He didn't give any parameters other than Carolinas. I'm thinking mid-grade tropical storm with a nice signature with a potential to strong tropical storm depending on interaction with the Gulf Stream. His main concern was that it was a possible 1-2 punch setup (not that he's for-sure on Frances). Though some may not like it, he gave the headsup last Friday to watch this area late this week (thread available on this site) as the pattern was one to watch for 'something out of nothing.' Anyone who did a better job on the pattern recognition is certainly free to disagree.

But back to the system, if it cranks, that will make 7 named storms in August with likely 4 landfalls (sans Earl, Danielle and Frances [yet]).

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

thinking it will go as well since an upper high is building over it

[Josephine96]

Might be Hermine instead since 98L has apparently formed

[TLHR]

Isn't this where Alex formed last month?

Poor Wilmington. First Alex-Bonnie, now another double hit??
The HIRT team might have its hands full!

[TLHR]

Two nights ago, Charleston had steady rains coming in off the coast in counter-clockwise bands. Yesterday, it was mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles here and there. Today it's sunny.

So it appears that the system is slowly moving away from the coast.
So what does that mean?
Does that mean that the ridge is weakening, allowing the storm to drift eastward?
If so, what does that mean for Frances' eventual track?
If this storm off the SC coast takes off towards the east, then that could signal bad news for the Carolinas, Frances-wise

[Steve]

To me the system is stationary. I saw a hint of turning over NE-C FLA (Ichituknee Springs area) earlier today that possibly got spit out. But it appears that the area is consolidating somewhat (per visible) and evidence of turning is definitely there. Most of the stronger convection has shifted offshore to the eastern side as a possible forerunner to development. Zoom in an animate to see for yourself (click animation, 6).



Stevehttp://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[Steve]

FWIW, I've got the center of circulation near 31.5/78.

Steve

[dhweather]

The amount of convection spinup off the SC coast this morning is quite
impressive. With the ridge building, this might indeed make an interesting weekend for someone on the SE coast.

[Air Force Met]

98 is going to take a while to get going. It has a closed low with it but there is also an upper low right over it. 97 on the other hand is getting its act together and the LLC has moved to where the convection is. It should be a TD before the day is over.

[TLHR]

Forget what I said earlier.
Conditions in Mt. Pleasant/Charleston have gone downhill with alarming speed. Lots and lots of heavy rain showers. Some wind.
I suspect we'll have a TS in 24 - 36 hours.

[krisj]

Hey TLHR! I am a neighbor, I guess. The THe sky is looking ominous and we have had quite a bit of heavy rain, but now the sun is out again.

[Steve]

As always, ice up those brews and enjoy the weekend. Nothing better than a little football, the Olympics and tropical weather to let you know that everything is a-okay.

Steve