Frances Advisories

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg




here i hope this buzzsaw dosn't buzzsaw it's way throwcentral florida next weekend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tip]

Thanks for the reply. Should see continued development if that is the case.

[hurricanemike]

Cool...thanks.

[Brent]

Your seeing the outflow from it. If it was shear, all the clouds would be moving from SW-NE, they are not, they are moving out from the circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Brent]

That's the trough that has turned Frances WNW and NW. In a few days, a ridge will build in up there and cause Frances to turn back west.

[Brent]

I wouldn't rule out Frances being a cat-2 very soon,prehaps within the next 12 hours.

it may be a cat 2 next advisory for all we know.

It will be because the new models initialized this at 90 kt(105 mph).

[Brent]

It's always possible, but then it will be in the Gulf.

I'd lay the odds on another trough causing it to turn again. This pattern we are in favors it.

[wx247]

I would say that the odds of a major hurricane making a track like that would be low, but you never can tell.

[RevDodd]

Just looking at AVN and GFDL toward the end of their runs. They seem to show Frances responding to a weakness and nudging northwest. Is that, by chance a response to this crud we've got off the Carolina coast now? A future possible low?

And, I guess of more importance, is the appearance or non-appearance of this weakness the difference in Frances pulling a Floyd or chugging on into the GOM?

thanks!

[Brent]

I would say that the odds of a major hurricane making a track like that would be low, but you never can tell.

So would I, which is why I'm not buying it, but stranger things have happened. It had been over 100 years since a major hurricane had hit Southwest Florida in August, so anything is possible.

[dhweather]

The images this morning are very impressive.
The next advisory will be an interesting read!!

[dhweather]

The images this morning are very impressive.
The next advisory will be an interesting read!!

[Derek Ortt]

not much change, still clears the islands http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

[daisy25]

I like reading your forcasts. Always very well written. Daisy

[dixiebreeze]

this morning and the NHC has her tracking toward the Bahamas and Florida Keys at this point (could change, of course).

Place your cursor on the image for the numbers:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[dhweather]

Not be be political here, but maybe this is God's way of saying

HEY FLORIDA, There's a lot more to worry about than swinging chads!

[JPmia]

Dixiebreeze, are you talking about their long term models? That eventual path is not shown the NRL site.

[boca]

Derek Ortt, do you still think a turn to the west will happen or probably not after 72 hours.

[dixiebreeze]

Dixiebreeze, are you talking about their long term models? That eventual path is not shown the NRL site.

Talking about the projected track map shown with Frances on the NRL site. It's just a projection -- not written in stone, as I indicated.

[Aquawind]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html