look at jacksonville radar

[Guest]

Gaston in the making. NE swell for Fl. Joe B said it might just spin over the gulf stream for a few days before moving. Paradise. Who needs a surf trip to Costa.

[Benlanka]

I'm not an expert on tropical cyclone formation but to me it just looks like some thundery showers associated with a trof/trough moving along the area (see NWS analysis) and the low pressure centre over the Atlantic. Perhaps I am seeing this all wrong but I am willing to learn .

[Guest]

Sometimes we call South Padre Island TX "Costa For Free"

have fun

[Guest]

Ben I think your right on your anaylsis I believe Joe B is right this will be a develping cyclone. Look at the long range shot from Jacksonville. Another rare opportunity to watch a cyclone develop near land. This is a perfect set up for surfing in Fl. Have a nice day

[Benlanka]

Thank you, I'll just keep monitoring Jacksonville long-range radar then .

[Matthew5]

Watch this satellite http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... s&type=vis

[Air Force Met]

It's going to be slow to develop...but it also isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It's been there a few days already amd gradually getting better organized. I think it has a good chance to go.

[PurdueWx80]

While the deepest convection is E of Jacksonville, the actual circulation is further north. Check out the long range radar from Charleston and you'll see a low ~100 miles E of Savannah. Land and buoy stations confirm a closed surface circulation but pressures still aren't too impressive.

[Guest]

Matt have you checked any buoys? Air F. Met. the water is really warm you dont think it could pop alittle faster than you believe? Lookin real good. It has been a long and flat summer.

[HurricaneGirl]

So far it 's been bright and sunny this morning here in Jacksonville!

[dhweather]

It's going to be slow to develop...but it also isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It's been there a few days already amd gradually getting better organized. I think it has a good chance to go.

You're right! It's gradually getting better organized.

Question - is there a trough or some other feature around 34N 75W?
There appears to be a strong northwest/southeast flow there in vis images.

[HurricaneGirl]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... e&pid=none

[Air Force Met]

I think once it gets formed into a TD or TS...then it can pop. Development will not be real rapid until that point. Reason: This system has pressure of about 1015-1016 MB right now. It is a very broad circulation. Broad circulations take a while to spin up because most of the convection usually forms away from the actual center due to the fact that this is where the convergence is taking place...as compaired to a tight center where the convection takes place closer to the center.

So...what has to happen before it can deepen at a faster rate is the LLC has to become much better defined with a pressure (given the high relative pressure environment it is in now) in the range of 1010 or so.

This can happen two ways. 1) Gradually over the course of the next couple of days or 2) Because it is a weak, broad center, the LLC could actually move/reform under the convection further east. IF this happens...then deepening can occur more rapidly. I think there is a better than even chance that #2 happens because the steering flow is weak and broad lows in weak steering flow like to go where the convection is.

[HurricaneGirl]

Depressions seem to form there alot off the Jacksonville Coast.

[Guest]

1010 is the magic millibar. Thanks for your time.

[Anonymous]

I think once it gets formed into a TD or TS...then it can pop. Development will not be real rapid until that point. Reason: This system has pressure of about 1015-1016 MB right now. It is a very broad circulation. Broad circulations take a while to spin up because most of the convection usually forms away from the actual center due to the fact that this is where the convergence is taking place...as compaired to a tight center where the convection takes place closer to the center.

So...what has to happen before it can deepen at a faster rate is the LLC has to become much better defined with a pressure (given the high relative pressure environment it is in now) in the range of 1010 or so.

This can happen two ways. 1) Gradually over the course of the next couple of days or 2) Because it is a weak, broad center, the LLC could actually move/reform under the convection further east. IF this happens...then deepening can occur more rapidly. I think there is a better than even chance that #2 happens because the steering flow is weak and broad lows in weak steering flow like to go where the convection is.

excellent points here Air Force Met ! I've been watching Frances more carefully lately rather than paying attention to that SE disturbance - but I think it's time for me to take a closer look at that system off the SE coast. Skies have already become mostly cloudy here in eastern SC.....
It bears watching !

[Matthew5]

Over the last few frames it appears that the system is slowly becoming better organized. For one a small blow up of convection has formed right over the LLCC. While at the same time the LLCC has started to move under the main area of convection. The Cirulation has slightly tighten up with a few inflow clouds forming on the northern Quad.

[Guest]

What do you think? Matt. TD tomorrow.

[Matthew5]

If it keeps tighting that LLCC with pressure falls then maybe?

[James]

It does have the 'look' to it. I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD in the near future. Just my opinion - for what it's worth.