Why the tropical models point towards Puerto Rico?
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cycloneye
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Why the tropical models point towards Puerto Rico?
There is a difference from the tropical models (Bamd,Bamm,Lbar) which show Frances making landfall here in Puerto Rico and the globals (GFS,UKMET,NOGAPS,CMC) showing Frances passing north of PR.Here already many people after the TV woman at univision showed the lines of the models pointing towards here haved started to panic a little so those gurus in the model thing explain that big diference.
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Weatherboy1
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run off GFS fields, right?
I'm not an expert, but I believe the tropical models are run off the GFS synoptic forecast. So they analyze what a tropical system will do within the broader environment forecast by the GFS. Since the GFS appears to be much stronger with the ridge now, the tropicals are forecasting various versions of a westerly, rather than WNW path. The other globals (UKMET, etc.) rely on different interpretations of the atmospheric environment.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
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