Long tracked storms, and the gulf

[PTPatrick]

I just wanted to weigh in, anybody think this thing could be headed to the gulf. I mean I hear people talking about troughs and fronts, but this is a slow mover and is there anything 8-10 days out that could move it north...seems like that is crunch time. This is going to sound bad, but I sincerely hope that if it does come to the gulf, it is via the channel between FL and Cuba...niether one needs a storm right now. I know that could mean a stronger hurricane in the gulf, but that brings me to my next point...the whole idea that storms can only keep going for so long. I don't know the stats, and I am sure there are a few, but I cant think of any storms that have become major way out there that were major when they got to the US. The major ones that hit us usually become major closer to islands and carribean. Example, Georges...he was a big boy out there, he never could get it together once he was in the Gulf. Floyd would be another example this loosing punch before land...lets hope this is what happens.

[AussieMark]

[NCWeatherChic]

She was before my time so not like I would remember her from the "other side". hahaha

[BayouVenteux]

Anybody who believes they can decisively say where Frances will end up beyond the 120-168 hr time frame is either a wishcaster supreme or suffering severe delusions of grandeur regarding their forecasting prowess.

In the last 10 days we have seen a complete pattern reversal from the unseasonably progressive/high amplitude trough set up that reigned since mid-July, to one more typical of the season. The next couple of weeks are probably going to be extremely anxiety-filled as the CV train heats up, systems like Frances move west, and the battle between Atlantic ridge and continental troughs of varying strength and amplitude play havoc with forecasts once storms get within potential landfall range. IMHO, I don't see this pattern simply flipping right back into a somewhat easy-to-call autumnal version where robust, high amplitude troughs drop cool weather S into the Gulf with the relative vigor and regularity that they did in late July through mid-August (crazy but it happened!), at least not until the latter part of September. My take is that summer's going to end on a generally hot note, both in terms of temperatures in the E U.S. and tropical action.

In other words...If you haven't already done so, make the preps you should have made at the start of hurricane season and don't take for granted any "conventional wisdom" regarding Frances extreme long-range progress at this point.