Frances Advisories

[Matthew5]

The best I can tell the center is at 14 north/48 west as of 3am est. The eye has fallen apart!

[Matthew5]

27/0615 UTC 14.3N 47.7W T4.5/4.5 FRANCES


The eye is no longer visible!


4.5 77 KTS 979 mb

[Matthew5]

Nrl says 85 knots/975 millibars!!!!!

Thats 100 mph cat2 hurricane!

[Matthew5]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 270641
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040827 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040827 0600 040827 1800 040828 0600 040828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 48.0W 15.2N 50.4W 16.3N 52.5W 17.3N 54.3W
BAMM 14.2N 48.0W 15.3N 50.4W 16.4N 52.5W 17.3N 54.2W
A98E 14.2N 48.0W 15.0N 50.5W 15.9N 53.0W 16.9N 55.4W
LBAR 14.2N 48.0W 15.2N 50.2W 16.6N 52.2W 17.8N 53.9W
SHIP 85KTS 93KTS 97KTS 100KTS
DSHP 85KTS 93KTS 97KTS 100KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040829 0600 040830 0600 040831 0600 040901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 55.9W 17.5N 59.5W 17.2N 63.9W 17.4N 68.2W
BAMM 17.6N 55.5W 17.2N 58.8W 17.2N 63.1W 18.0N 67.2W
A98E 17.2N 58.0W 16.3N 63.8W 14.8N 69.3W 12.8N 74.0W
LBAR 18.4N 55.4W 18.1N 59.4W 17.6N 64.7W 18.8N 68.6W
SHIP 103KTS 101KTS 93KTS 83KTS
DSHP 103KTS 101KTS 93KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 48.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 45.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 42.9W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 75NM

[Ground_Zero_92]

I hardly think talk of buying D batteries "martial law" They are just talking about being prepared. And by this time in the season EVERYONE needs to be prepared. Suplies etc..

Very true. Since Charley, I have seen many of my neighbors become more aware about the potential of tropical systems down here. Most of them never had a hurricane plan or supplies before. Now they talk about planning and are buying supplies.

Unfortunatly, it took a storm like Charley to wake them up. The old timers were reminded of Andrew. The newbies in the area are realizing that they better wake up because it will only be a matter of time before another system does hit home.

All in all, the wake up bells were sounded. As we enter the peak of hurricane season, it's better late than never for everyone to be prepared.

[James]

** WTNT41 KNHC 270838 ***
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 0600Z THERE WAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS GAVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A STRONGER HURRICANE SINCE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS WERE
NEAR 5.0 AND A SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATION WOULD GIVE A 5.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT PERIOD. AT THE CLASSIFICATION TIME...06Z...
THE EYE BECAME LESS DEFINED AND CONVECTION WEAKENED A LITTLE. THIS
RESULTED IN THE SAME 4.5 T-NUMBERS THAT WERE PROVIDED AT 00Z.
THEREAFTER...MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RAGGED EYE SO...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS. THE OUTFLOW
REMAINS VERY WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. IN ADDITION...
GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER/AROUND
FRANCES WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE EXTENDING UP TO 200
MB. THIS PATTERN IS COMMON IN INTENSE HURRICANES. THEREFORE...
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES CURRENTLY
OBSERVED IN THE AREA WHERE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN 3
DAYS WILL WEAKEN AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.

FRANCES APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295
DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND PERHAPS A TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE HURRICANE MAY BE DOING SO AS WE SPEAK.
HOWEVER...UNANIMOULSY ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE REBUILDING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO MAKE A
LEFT TURN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL TURN WESTWARD. THE
GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING
THE HURRICANE WESTWARD BASICALLY ALONG 20 NORTH FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE UK AND THE GFDL HAVE ALSO SHIFTED THE TRACK MORE
TO THE WEST BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
HALFWAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS. THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS HURRICANE MUST BE MONITORED VERY CAREFULLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ONCE AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT 4- AND 5-DAY FORECAST POINTS
CAN EASILY BE IN ERROR BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 14.5N 48.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 15.3N 50.3W 85 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 16.5N 52.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 18.0N 53.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 55.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 58.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 21.0N 61.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 21.5N 65.0W 105 KT

[mobilebay]

The westward shift continues... as I have said the last several days I have a bad feeling about this Hurricane and the US Coastline. Now It's not just a feeling because the models are indicating a classic US landfalling Cape Verde Hurricane setup. Still A LONG way out though...

[James]

The eye is becoming quite distinct again. It looks more apparent now than it did earlier in my opinion.

[mobilebay]

The eye is becoming quite distinct again. It looks more apparent now than it did earlier in my opinion.

I Agree 100% James

[southerngale]

[mobilebay]

Now that is a pinhole eye.

[James]

An impressive image. Frances almost looks as though she may be a CAT 3 already.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I have always FELT like this would happen....I am no expert, but based on all the post I have read and what I have learned it seems a STRONG possibility too me....

[scogor]

Quite a frightening forecast track map on the Navy site. Could be a very stressful Labor Day weekend for everyone in the Southeast.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Quite a frightening forecast track map on the Navy site. Could be a very stressful Labor Day weekend for everyone in the Southeast.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Ground_Zero_92:

That's a scary looking Isabel avatar........

[BUD]

Hurricanes Bertha,Fran,Bonnie and Floyd on the same or almost same track it is taking now.It looks Bad for the Southeast coast.
BUD

[Matthew5]

It kind of looks like Izzy or even a little like Charley right now with that small eye!

[mobilebay]

However, based on the most recent model runs, it appears the sub-tropical ridge will be stronger, and no trough. Wich leads me to believe GOM. Not trying to be a homer, thats just the way I see it.

[Thunder44]

Looking at the sat pics this morning. I believe Frances is much stronger than 5am advisory than indicated. The eye doesn't look ragged to me and you can see in the latest visible images now. It's small and circular, not something typically see with a Cat 1 hurricane.. It's at least strong Cat 2, if not 3.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg