Frances Advisories

[btsgmdad]

After visiting Daytona and Jacksonville this year I told my brother that I never wished another hurricane on anyone again. I hope Frances miraculously turns out to sea with the fishes.

[HurricaneJim]

Hi all, just popping over from UKWeatherworld.co.uk

I'm seeing lots of debate on track, what I'm not seeing is debate on strength and everything I'm seeing says Whopper of a Storm. CAT 3 min.

I'd say the entire SE US needs to start getting set for this.

Correct?

Jim

[Guest]

South Fla had their big one. what could be any bigger? a cat 5? Lets hope not!!!

[PurdueWx80]

The storm has most certainly slowed this evening, but remains on a track near 285 (WNW). The last IR and WV floater images show a well-developed CDO with deep convection and a warm spot nearly in the center. The eye is clearing out, and if this continues overnight, expect a Cat 3 by tomorrow afternoon.

[PurdueWx80]

See http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html and click on 100% to zoom in on the storm. This image shows very cold cloud tops (sorry no scale to see exact temp) and a very warm eye opening up.

[Huckster]

I think there has been too much "jumping the gun" already with Frances. It seems like as soon as it formed there were lots of people already trying to sacrifice the storm to the open Atlantic as a "fish." Now things seem to have gone to the opposite extreme. No reason to get too excited yet, as it's too early, too far out, and there are too many variables. Just keep an eye on it, as if there's anything that could prevent us enthusiasts from doing just that Has anyone figured out for sure why France does not care for the name Frances? I am guessing it's got to do with what they call their language, Français. The names are too much alike.

[Brent]

Likely Cat 2 tomorrow. Maybe Cat 3 late tomorrow if it goes through an explosive trend like it did this morning.

[mobilebay]

After reading all the threads, I now realize Florida has had it!!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

I'm thinking category 2 by 5 am and maybe a category 3 by late tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon. That eye is definitely better defined.

Jim

[Guest]

the eye is beginning to really show.

[Matthew5]

Shoot Looking at that clear little eye with that cdo with red mostly around it. With Perfect outflow. I would not be surprized if it is cat3 now! Remember it took recon to find the cat4 winds in Charley!

[MWatkins]

The 00Z GFS has Frances as a very strong system passing right over Puerto Rico from east to west...not unlike Georges did a few years ago...and is stronger with the 500MB ridge BTW...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_114s.gif

Not good.

MW

[Guest]

ouchies, this is a bad scenario for pr indeed.

[chris_fit]

Not a good sign for FL is it

[Matthew5]

Now that is something you don't see every day! How strong do you think it is Mw. I'm whiling to say with that eye that it is closing in at cat3!

I'm also going to say the next SSD is going to come in as 5.0/5.0 or maybe as high as 5.5/5.5!

[PurdueWx80]

Notice also what it has off the east coast...that is the system ESE of Charleston now. The models have been consistently developing this for several runs. The African wave train looks a bit creepy too, 3 systems, one pretty strong.

[mobilebay]

Thanks MWatkins. Look out Cycloneye. Hey Mike don't you think that's what the NHC meant by their disclaimer at the bottum of the 11PM Discussion, for the people in these Islands not to let their Guards down? Also, why is Frances thriving with all the dry air around her?

[Matthew5]

The air rises where the storm is then sinks outside of the storm.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Now I am starting to get worried! Mike, what do you think are the probabilities of Frances to miss us? I like to see hurricanes but from big distances away! That GFS make me think that we will have to start to think more seriously about Frances.

Cycloman

[MWatkins]

Thanks MWatkins. Look out Cycloneye. Hey Mike don't you think that's what the NHC meant by their disclaimer at the bottum of the 11PM Discussion, for the people in these Islands not to let their Guards down? Also, why is Frances thriving with all the dry air around her?

I think Frances is modifying the environment around the circulation enough that air getting drawn in is moist enough so as not to interrupt the circulation.

I think that is why they (TPC) threw that in...the model is really bearing down on PR...in fact it doesnt bring Frances north of 20 until almost 70w...which suggests..if this verifies a threat to the east coast...Florida specifically...is almost assured...if this verifies.
By the way...I do remember you from the old place...good to see you MobileBay...

MW