11 p.m. NHC 5-day track points to trouble....

[dixiebreeze]

for S. Florida. Also forecasts a Cat. 3 by Sunday:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[Brent]

Why? It's still north of the VIRGIN ISLANDS Tuesday Night, FIVE DAYS from now.

[dixiebreeze]

Why? It's still north of the VIRGIN ISLANDS Tuesday Night, FIVE DAYS from now.

'Cause by that time Frances will be on a decidedly westerly course.

[chadtm80]

More maps here http://www.storm2k.org

After just going through Charley.. I can say that just the look of frances has me very concerned

[kevin]

I feel for you Chad, I really do! lol...

[Mattie]

great promo Chad! LOL - after your earlier posts, I see your name and know that storm2k link is right there!

But it IS all there . . .

[Guest]

yep thats what the models were showing this morning hitting S. Fla and exiting in the GOM look at the http://www.nco.noaep.noaa.gov/pum/nwpar ... el+m.shtml site and look at the 12 or 13 days out

[Guest]

My Heart goes out to Fla people I hope this isn't true

[LaBreeze]

Question? I keep reading about Frances possibly going WNW, then NW, and then a decidedly Western track. How far west are we talking here? To the Fl. coast and across the peninsula? Further north? Just wondering what is the general concensus at this point in time.

[kevin]

Decidedly is dixie's term. That's a five day out turn to the west..

[LaBreeze]

Thanks.

[HurricaneJim]

I'm seeing lots of debate about track, not much about intensity. We looking at a min CAT 3 here?

No matter what track, it seems it's plowing into warmer and warmer water.

I'm thinking SE US needs to start buckling down.

Jim
UKWeatherworld.co.uk

[Brent]

I'm seeing lots of debate about track, not much about intensity. We looking at a min CAT 3 here?

No matter what track, it seems it's plowing into warmer and warmer water.

I'm thinking SE US needs to start buckling down.

Jim
UKWeatherworld.co.uk

Probably stronger. It's forecast to be a Cat 3 on Saturday.

[flyingphish]

Hello Dixie. Hope you have been doing well. I was CaneFisher last year but it was to hard to reregister.(Sr. moment) What do you think about Fl's prospects for this year ? I think Charley may not be tha first unfortunately, for Fl. folks.

[dixiebreeze]

Hello Dixie. Hope you have been doing well. I was CaneFisher last year but it was to hard to reregister.(Sr. moment) What do you think about Fl's prospects for this year ? I think Charley may not be tha first unfortunately, for Fl. folks.

Canefisher (flyingphish)! I missed you since moving to S2K -- glad you're here now.

I think Florida's prospects already went from bad to worse with Bonnie and Charley. If Frances keeps up her pace, it doesn't look very promising in the week or so ahead.

[flyingphish]

Glad to be back Dixie and that you are doing well. I was a little S. of Charley and sustained minimal damage. Some of my friends up the coast did not fare so well though. I am optimistic about a weakness in the ridge that the NHC is hinting about..considering the timeline..I still favor recurvature. Do not mean to wreck the party..but.Charley was enough for a bit. It has only just begun for Fl.(20's and 30's) I fear. Gotta love living in a state of flux..eh? Good chatting with you and best of luck!



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[Guest]

My gut says it won't recurve before it hits. I think once it landfalls (im thinking sc/nc) it will turn nnw/north.

[Air Force Met]

I'm seeing lots of debate about track, not much about intensity. We looking at a min CAT 3 here?

No matter what track, it seems it's plowing into warmer and warmer water.

I'm thinking SE US needs to start buckling down.

Jim
UKWeatherworld.co.uk

Looks like upper winds will be favorable...and we know water temps are. So...it will probably bounce around b/w a strong cat 2 and a moderate cat 4...depending upon eyewall cycles. I would imagine it will be one of those storms that makes cat 4 a couple of times...then goes back down to a cat 3 or 2...then ramps back up. Kinda like Allen did in 1980...only not as strong.

IT's a medium sized storm so it should be fairly imune from any dry air intrusions...etc.