Frances Advisories

[OURAGAN]

Frances is moving west since three hours, so the islands need to watch this system

[corpusbreeze]

It sure looks like it has been on a western track the last few hours. It will be nice when it gets an eye, as it will be easier to track movement. I sure think things seem to be trending west.

[corpusbreeze]

Yes they should.

[Hurricanehink]

If it does develop, it will likely be short-lived, so it would have a similar affect that Henri had on Isabel last year. It may bring it a little further northward, or it will do nothing. It isn't looking too bad right now, so it does have potential.

[cinlfla]

This is August 26th, hurricane season started June 1st. No offense but all that stuff should have been bought months ago. The time to prepare for a hurricane is long before one threatens you. Get the stuff now regardless of what Frances does. For all we know we could have a storm hit from somewhere else before Frances even gets here. Preparation starts long before hurricane season gets here. Just some friendly advice.

I agree with this but I have to be honost, I have lived in Florida for a long time and I have to admit I am one of those people that always thought it won't come here but I've had my wake-up call and now my husband and I now have a hurricane plan and have things in order just in case we ever get another storm.
Cindy

[dhweather]

This is not good news...
I know this is not definte however the NHC usually keeps their mouths shut until they are much more sure of somthing, thus the mentioning of this west-ward trend is proof they believe it has a great possibility of occuring!

This is a quote of the second paragraph of the discussion linked below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2031.shtml?

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. FRANCES HAS REMAINED ON TRACK AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A SHARP
RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. IN FACT...THE LATEST UKMET RUN HAS SHIFTED
MUCH FARTHER WEST WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.
THOSE TWO MODELS...PLUS THE GFDL...HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON TOP OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN ONLY DIVERGE
SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE 12Z TRACK AFTER THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT
AND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD...SO ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES IS EXPECTED IN THE 36-72H
TIME PERIOD. AFTERWARDS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN NOGAPS...
IS FORECASTING THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND
THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO BECOME STRONGLY ZONAL. WITH SUCH STRONG
WESTERLY HIGH-LATITUDE FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED...A CORRESPONDING
RESPONSE SHOULD BE A STRENGTHENING OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE
WESTWARD TO PERHAPS THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 120 HOURS. THAT PATTERN
SHOULD HELP TO TURN FRANCES MORE WESTWARD AFTER 96 HOURS. AS SUCH
...THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

I have been wanting to purchase a Davis Pro weather station for many years now, and i have the funds currently available. With this storm possibly going to effect my region that would be an nice addition. IF a system did effect me, i could link you all to my website with the updated weather conditions on it, and i have enough battery backup to last through the average hurricane for a laptop... lets hope the internet stays connected!

-Eric

Now, if you get the Davis Vantage Pro, it uses c-cell batteries.
I recorded a low barometer of 29.06 as the remnants of Isidore passed
by. Did not get much wind though, and never lost power.

[LaBreeze]

Yes, waters in the GOM are very warm. Heck, it's been so humid and hot I'm surprised a tropical system hasn't already formed from the water in the swimming pools here! Joking of course - but not about the heat and humidity.

[TLHR]

This is August 26th, hurricane season started June 1st. No offense but all that stuff should have been bought months ago. The time to prepare for a hurricane is long before one threatens you. Get the stuff now regardless of what Frances does. For all we know we could have a storm hit from somewhere else before Frances even gets here. Preparation starts long before hurricane season gets here. Just some friendly advice.

AMEN!!!

BTW, I still think Frances will hit the Carolinas between Charleston and Wilmington.

Just a hunch...

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2004

...Frances continues to strengthen...

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 14.0 north...longitude 47.3 west or about 940
miles...1515 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph
...24 km/hr...and some decrease in forward speed is expected on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph...140
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours...and Frances could become a category two
hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 85 miles...140 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...14.0 N... 47.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 980 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2004

Based on satellite imagery...the hurricane continues to intensify.
The cloud pattern is now quite symmetrical and there have been
hints of an eye...or warm spot...on the infrared images.
Upper-level outflow is becoming even more well-defined...and global
model 200 mb wind forecasts show a large anticyclone over/around
Frances for the next several days. Therefore...additional
strengthening seems inevitable. The official intensity forecast is
the same as that from the last advisory. This is similar to the
SHIPS guidance through 72 hours...and a little above ships at 4 and
5 days. The latest FSU superensemble intensity prediction is
slightly higher than the official forecast.
Current motion estimate...295/13...is a little slower than in the
previous advisory. A further decrease in forward speed is likely
as a mid-latitude trough weakens the subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic during the next couple of days. This trough
should lift out of the picture by 72 hours. Thereafter...a
leftward turn of the hurricane seems likely...but how much of a
turn will occur is unclear. Numerical guidance at 500 mb does not
show the ridge building back in very strongly over the west-central
Atlantic by 4-5 days. Therefore the forward speed will probably
be slow in the latter part of the period. The official track
forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory...just
slightly slower. This is quite close to the latest dynamical track
model consensus...conu.
It should be stressed that 4- and 5-day forecast points can easily
be in error by several hundred miles.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 27/0300z 14.0n 47.3w 75 kt
12hr VT 27/1200z 15.0n 49.1w 85 kt
24hr VT 28/0000z 16.3n 51.2w 95 kt
36hr VT 28/1200z 17.5n 52.8w 100 kt
48hr VT 29/0000z 18.4n 54.0w 100 kt
72hr VT 30/0000z 20.0n 56.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 31/0000z 21.5n 59.0w 105 kt
120hr VT 01/0000z 22.0n 62.0w 105 kt

[weatherlover427]

Cat 5 by Monday,and a mag. 6 quake in Cali,too

Don't say that or else it might happen !!

[corpusbreeze]

Florida cant handle another major storm this year. I wonder how the insurance companies feel right now? If Florida gets hit again Florida may have the same homeowner insurance problems that us here in Texas have to deal with. Which by the way is BAD!

[dhweather]

So thinks the NHC.


I'm curious about the slowdown in forward speed - the Easterlies are
still moving pretty quick, so I'd think Frances would too. What's
causing that, the bit of a break between the two ridges??

[TLHR]

If the GDFL and UKMET models are to be believed, Florida is pretty much out of the woods. SC, NC, VA, and MD will have to keep watch.

[btsgmdad]

From the looks of the images we have a rapidly developing situation here. A quick moving front is in order, post haste.

[Mattie]

Amen Corpus!!!! Check the State site and we are at least getting some rebates back - I think 29 companies have been ordered to repay overbillings to lots of homeowners. I have mine with the Hartford and they are on the list to be returning (in the form of reduction in premiums for the following year) some $$ to the policy holders.

(Not a weather topic - sorry)

They are saying Frances should have an eye by morning. . .

[corpusbreeze]

Amen Corpus!!!! Check the State site and we are at least getting some rebates back - I think 29 companies have been ordered to repay overbillings to lots of homeowners. I have mine with the Hartford and they are on the list to be returning (in the form of reduction in premiums for the following year) some $$ to the policy holders.

(Not a weather topic - sorry)

They are saying Frances should have an eye by morning. . .

Im still waiting for mine. Farmers raked me bad.

[chris_fit]

If the GDFL and UKMET models are to be believed, Florida is pretty much out of the woods. SC, NC, VA, and MD will have to keep watch.

Whoa there... Extremely Bold Statement.

Look at the latest Satelite images... the Islands arent even out of the woods let alone FL.

[dhweather]

More disturbing is the likelihood that the next landfalling major in south Florida won't be THE big one, but rather JUST ONE MORE big one in what may be trending toward a fairly regular occurence...once again. Florida's economic and population explosion over the last 50 years has coincided with a prolonged period of light hurricane landfalls, and there exists the possibilty that the "free ride" is coming to an end. If one looks back at the 20's, 30's and 40's, that era's Florida landfalling hurricane history may offer a glimpse of what to expect over the coming decades.

Excellent points - the NHC instituted the five day forecast to try and give
local officials a better idea for when to start evacuations. The problems
with dense coastal areas, particularly Florida, is there is no way two million people can evacuate in a day or two. This problem will continue to
grow, and I am afraid we'll have a tragedy on the Galveston 1900 level despite our advanced technology.

[B-Bear]

Cat 6 by Monday morning, for sure.

Is there really such a thing as a Cat 6? Please, someone tell me theres not!!!

No.

Thanks Brent..I knew I could count on you !

I was only joking about the category 6.

But here's something to chew on. For all the nasty storms we've seen throughout history, we have yet to see the worst. It's still out there, lurking somewhere in the distance over the horizon. Sooner or later--when all the pieces fall together at just the right place and at just the right time--a storm will explode in the tropical Atlantic that will boggle the minds of even meteorologists. Perhaps it will be 1,000 miles across, or have sustained winds approaching 200 mph. But rest assured, it's out there.

That's how things work with science and mother nature. Just when we think she's shown us all she's got, she shows us something we had no idea she could do.