Frances Advisories

[ericinmia]

No, i'm not getting ahead of myself. I never claimed this was going to do anything.

I simply posted the a couple articles i came across that might be of intrest to others. If you think that the NHC and NWS are getting ahead of themselves... well hey, thats why they call it a LONG RANG forecast, and alert you to the falability of it.

I am very aware of the remote likelyhood of this striking south fla, however i find weather interesting and like to look into the future, and attempt to reason and view that which only the alimighty can view and comprehend.

I can't wait until the very far future when who knows... we could predict stroms before they even leave the African mainland!
-Eric

[jlauderdal]

I think you're reading a bit too much into the discussion.

Overall people are really getting ahead of themselves quite a bit.

Even if this made a BEELINE for Florida it would take about 10 days to hit.

Sort of the same thing happened with Isabel..the hype reached a fever pitch, and then people realized it was still 6 days from hitting anything.

Derecho is exactly right. So far today we had one pster talk about an emergency, now there is talk of D batteries, talk of scary scenarios. Its a little crazy, can we at least wait until about next Monday before we declare martial law and a state of emergency on the entire eastern seaboard. This is prime hurricane season and what we have is nothing new. In fact, it isnt sept 1 so everybody relax and watch. We only have 1 system, its going to be full panic mode if we get 2 or 3 going at once which wouldnt be unusual. As fst as GFS goes, everybody on this bord will be in its crosshairs between now and Monday so relax.

[cape_escape]

I will go on record as sayng Frances will be even badder than Charley- a cat 5.

Not good! Ok...this may be a stupid question but, I'm rather new to the whole Florida way of life and hurricanes in particular...So, if Francis does come in like, say, Andrew, what should I expect here , near Fort Myers? And, if it comes ashore in the Ft Lauderdale area, then what?

[HurricaneBill]

Cat 5 next week with stadium eye to boot?

Conditions have to be JUST RIGHT for a Category 5.

Although there have been many occasions where consecutive seasons had Cat 5s.

Since 1950:
Hurricane Dog 1950
Hurricane Easy 1951

Hurricane Donna 1960
Hurricane Ethel 1960
Hurricane Carla 1961
Hurricane Hattie 1961

Hurricane David 1979
Hurricane Allen 1980

and most recently

Hurricane Gilbert 1988
Hurricane Hugo 1989

[Deenac813]

Derek, as always, thanks for the great forecast. I really look forward to yours!

[HurricaneLover]

if you see the floater loop , the storm is moving north of due west..http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[kevin]

ericinmia:

Lo, I think you misinterpreted The Great Derecho (tm) ...

[Guest]

Maybe Andrew's younger sister but she can't be his older brother.

[cape_escape]

Cat 6 by Monday morning, for sure.

Is there really such a thing as a Cat 6? Please, someone tell me theres not!!!

[EDR1222]

If it develops at all, will the weak low off the Southeast U.S. coast have an influence over Frances track? Just wondering what the mets think about this.

[canegrl04]

Cat 5 by Monday,and a mag. 6 quake in Cali,too

[Guest]

I tell ya if that feature is there in 10-11 days it would be something

[chadtm80]

I think you're reading a bit too much into the discussion.

Overall people are really getting ahead of themselves quite a bit.

Even if this made a BEELINE for Florida it would take about 10 days to hit.

Sort of the same thing happened with Isabel..the hype reached a fever pitch, and then people realized it was still 6 days from hitting anything.

Derecho is exactly right. So far today we had one pster talk about an emergency, now there is talk of D batteries, talk of scary scenarios. Its a little crazy, can we at least wait until about next Monday before we declare martial law and a state of emergency on the entire eastern seaboard. This is prime hurricane season and what we have is nothing new. In fact, it isnt sept 1 so everybody relax and watch. We only have 1 system, its going to be full panic mode if we get 2 or 3 going at once which wouldnt be unusual. As fst as GFS goes, everybody on this bord will be in its crosshairs between now and Monday so relax.

I hardly think talk of buying D batteries "martial law" They are just talking about being prepared. And by this time in the season EVERYONE needs to be prepared. Suplies etc..

[Stratosphere747]

I would not be to surprised that after further review that Charley may be upgraded to a Cat5...I only base it because of the damage that was done...And if it was not...God help anyone that gets hit by a true and large Cat5....

[cinlfla]

can we at least wait until about next Monday before we declare martial law and a state of emergency on the entire eastern seaboard.

I was giving the poster a heads up thats all and No we can't wait, sorry
Cindy

[Brent]

Cat 6 by Monday morning, for sure.

Is there really such a thing as a Cat 6? Please, someone tell me theres not!!!

No.

[BayouVenteux]

More disturbing is the likelihood that the next landfalling major in south Florida won't be THE big one, but rather JUST ONE MORE big one in what may be trending toward a fairly regular occurence...once again. Florida's economic and population explosion over the last 50 years has coincided with a prolonged period of light hurricane landfalls, and there exists the possibilty that the "free ride" is coming to an end. If one looks back at the 20's, 30's and 40's, that era's Florida landfalling hurricane history may offer a glimpse of what to expect over the coming decades.

[caneman]

More disturbing is the likelihood that the next landfalling major in south Florida won't be THE big one, but rather JUST ONE MORE big one in what may be trending toward a fairly regular occurence...once again. Florida's economic and population explosion over the last 50 years has coincided with a prolonged period of light hurricane landfalls, and there exists the possibilty that the "free ride" is coming to an end. If one looks back at the 20's, 30's and 40's, that era's Florida landfalling hurricane history may offer a glimpse of what to expect over the coming decades.

Yep,

I'm with you and agree it will happen. Question is - Is will that cycle be starting this year? We shall see.

[Downdraft]

This is August 26th, hurricane season started June 1st. No offense but all that stuff should have been bought months ago. The time to prepare for a hurricane is long before one threatens you. Get the stuff now regardless of what Frances does. For all we know we could have a storm hit from somewhere else before Frances even gets here. Preparation starts long before hurricane season gets here. Just some friendly advice.

[cape_escape]

Cat 6 by Monday morning, for sure.

Is there really such a thing as a Cat 6? Please, someone tell me theres not!!!

No.

Thanks Brent..I knew I could count on you !