18Z GFS = GA coast in 2 weeks

[PurdueWx80]

I thought I'd play along on this whole "what is the GFS teasing us with now" game. In any event, the 18Z run stalls the storm just east of the Bahamas, and then a building ridge forces it to just east of Jacksonville, then into the coast of GA on day 14 and he goes northwards from there. As we all know, only the rarest of storms take such a path. It's interesting to see the model split the difference between the last several runs. The model also keeps whatever is off the SC coast there for well over a week. That would mean a HUGE flooding threat to the coastal plains and coastline of SC and NC should that happen.

[Brent]

LOL

Sorry, I laugh at all GFS forecasts over 10 days out.

[Guest]

I wonder where its going to go in the next run.We should start a contest or poll of some sort to see who can pick the next place the GFS will have Frances make landfall.

[Stormsfury]

I don't know about the GFS scenario ... it just looks .. plainly speaking, moving Frances too damn slow ...

[Weatherboy1]

the last few runs of the GFS have put this thing into SE FL, recurving between Bermuda and NC (and not hitting the US at all), and SC. Now, it's a GA problem. As others have pointed out, that's why you can't use the GFS for a pin-point forecast this far out. We truly won't even have an inkling of where on the US coast this thing could make landfall (in my opinion) until Sunday night.

[Dean4Storms]

Although I agree that you can't bank on this scenario this far out, one thing pops out here. These models have all been coming further west of late as they get fed more information along with the intensity that Frances has now gained. With that in mind I can only surmise that the Subtropical Ridge is expected to be stronger in the short term to drive her to near the Bahamas which indicates to me that the track may continue to shift west placing FL/GA in the crosshairs. Like Charley a larger more deepened storm usually turns more slowly if she does at all.

[Guest]

more importantly is whats going to happen upstream in canada, such as huge disparity between gfs mean ens playing out that giant ridge coming down from canada and the stalling longwave trough over the plains. there are so many model dyscrepencys that even an educated guess is not educated

[Guest]

Lots of strong hurricanes maintained a westerly course for long periods of time.Storms like The Miami 26 Hurricane made a W/NW b line for Miami that started around 60 W..A powerful hurricane in '45 the struck South Fla,that mammoth hurricane that hit Ft.Lauderdale in'47,Donna,Gilbert & even Andrew went straight west for a few days.If you got a strong enough High in place a major hurricane can go westward for a while.

[rbaker]

or even sw and south as we saw with isadore a few years ago into the yucatan. As stated, with the gfs or any other model when a cyclone is 2000 miles from the US, is like picking your weapon in a dual. I do agree, with the more pulling of a westward motion, as all the models are except the nogaps, and then after awhile it pulls it back towards the left also. Predicting direction is one thing, predicting a landfall from se fla to the NE is another

[Guest]

Yes Isidore took a dive south & Mitch which was a CAT 5 & went south.

[Thunder44]

There is no reason to fear a forecast from the GFS more than 7 days out.

[Stormsfury]

There is no reason to fear a forecast from the GFS more than 7 days out.

Personally, I only like to use the GFS INSIDE of 84 hours ... that's that model's speciality. And that's where the highest model resolution is also run ... the truncation issues really can cause some strange outputs off the GFS ...

[Brent]

I still think the models are too freaking slow with this. Sorry, it's not just going to stall in the middle of the ocean.

[Derecho]

I still think the models are too freaking slow with this. Sorry, it's not just going to stall in the middle of the ocean.

Bonnie spent 3 whole days crawling along east of the Bahamas.

All sorts of storms stall on the edge of the tropics. People tend to be mentally focused on whatever the previous well known storm did. Charley was a fast mover and never stalled.

[NorthGaWeather]

A hit on the GA coast would be one of the worst hits ever. Alot of people don't understand the type of surge that would be experienced in a Cat 3 along the GA Coast let alone a Cat 5. The Barrier Islands would be gone, Tybee, St. Simons, Jeykel all completely destroyed. Also a landfall near Savannah would produce incredible damage. Impressive surge up the Savannah river and Savannah would be take some amazing damage.

[cape_escape]

A hit on the GA coast would be one of the worst hits ever. Alot of people don't understand the type of surge that would be experienced in a Cat 3 along the GA Coast let alone a Cat 5. The Barrier Islands would be gone, Tybee, St. Simons, Jeykel all completely destroyed. Also a landfall near Savannah would produce incredible damage. Impressive surge up the Savannah river and Savannah would be take some amazing damage.

Thats a frightning thought!

[TLHR]

I remember when Floyd crawled up the coast.
First it was Daytona Beach, then Jacksonville, then Beaufort, then Edisto Beach before coming ashore in Wilmington.

If the NHC is talking about Florida, then residents in SC and NC need to prepare now...

[Bane]

If the NHC is talking about Florida, then residents in SC and NC need to prepare now...

sad, yet true.