Floydbuster's 2nd Frances forecast...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Frances Forecast #2
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
Thursday August 26, 2004 5pm
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Frances has shown continued rapid strengthening and is now a modest category 1 hurricane on the saffir simpson scale. Max winds are now increased to 80 mph.

The movement continues towards the west-northwest at 16 mph. The NHC and myself, forecast a slowing of the speed in 12-36 hrs. In the 3-5 day range, I expect the ridge to build back in pushing the system back due west into the Bahamas... and into a very favorable area for it to get stronger.

With the current rapid intensification, and possible ERC's (Eyewall replacement cycles) down the road.... the intensity forecast is very hard to predict. I do FULLY expect Frances to become a major hurricane, possibly Friday. There may be some shear in the 3-4 day range, but it appears to be decreasing. Therefore, I am going to call for the bottom end of a category 4 hurricane moving west north of the islands and Puerto Rico in a few days. I will put on my game face for this forecast because I think it may be stronger than this. However, I will not forecast that yet. Get out the coffee pots.

NOTE: The potential for a category 4 or even higher is there in the area in and east of the Bahamas. Watch out Florida.

Forecaster Naso

12 HRS-- 14.5 N--48.5 W-- 85 kt
24 HRS-- 15.0 N--50.3 W-- 95 kt
36 HRS-- 16.0 N--52.0 W-- 100 kt
48 HRS-- 17.5 N--53.5 W-- 105 kt
72 HRS-- 18.0 N--55.8 W-- 110 kt
96 HRS-- 19.8 N--58.8 W-- 115 kt
120 HRS- 21.0N--63.3 W-- 115 kt

[chris_fit]

Good Forecast Thanks!

[Anonymous]

THANK YOU.

[lilbump3000]

Floydbuster you should start your own little hurricane website.

[lilbump3000]

I dont know but for this strange reason i have a feeling that this is setting up to be a 1992 hurricane andrew event.

[chris_fit]

I dont know but for this strange reason i have a feeling that this is setting up to be a 1992 hurricane andrew event.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks, Frances may have said; "If you are going to retire me, don't worry, I will give you enough reasons to do so."

[x-y-no]

I think you may be too quick with the development since, as the 5pm discussion pointed out, there will likely be at least one concentric eyewall cycle in the next 72 hours.

Your track looks disturbingly likely to me.

Looking ahead, if Frances were to get into the central Bahamas, there's good prospect for rapid intensification there if it hasn't already happened at that point, since there's an ample thick layer of warm water throughout that area, and atmospheric conditions should be conducive to development.

[Anonymous]

I mentioned ERC's....

[x-y-no]

I mentioned ERC's....

I'm sorry, I did see that and should have acknowledged it.

I also neglected to thank you. Interesting analysis, I appreciate your effort and look forward to seeing how it turns out.

Jan

[Anonymous]

135 mph is actually my conservative thinking... And Mike Watkins actually offended me.

[canegrl04]

The track and conditions are so eerily like 1992's Andrew.I have a weird feeling too,that we've got Andrew all over again with Frances

[lilbump3000]

Like i wrote in another thread, it will all depened on the high. Below is what i wrote.


It all depends on the strength of the high pressure. If this become a strong high, then expect this system to make it across flordia and into the gulf of mexico. Now what can make this system go up the east coast is if this is not a strong enough high or there is some type of trough that comes down and weakens the ridge that will cause the system to turn. Thats what i see the system doing out of them 2 scenarios.

[Anonymous]

I see this as a grave threat.

[Guest]

I see this as a grave threat.

[bigmike]

This system is at least 7-8 days out from affecting land. A million little things can happen between now and then.