Frances will NOT strike the US guaranteed!!!

[Stormcenter]

Not at least for the next 7-9 days.
But seriously I really think we are all
getting to worked up about Frances possibly
affecting the U.S. mainland. Now if she gets past
the islands and is still heading on a more westward
course then I would start to worry along
the US East coast.

[Guest]

we should be worrying now as its looking more and more likely frances will hit somewhere along the Southeast coast.

[Weatherboy1]

Right now, here is what the HPC has predicted in terms of fronts/troughs for day 6:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

You can see they expect a front to stretch from off the New England coast back through the SE and toward the Gulf Coast. The key -- in my opinion -- to whether and where Frances hits the US coast is what happens in the day 7-9 timeframe. Does this front sag and amplify further south, therefore protecting the US? Or does it wash out, allowing the Atlantic ridge to build back in to the west. My guess is that by day 6, this thing will be close to the "Lushine Line" -- a line drawn from 19N - 26N along 68W. Traditionally, storms that have hit the FL peninsula have travelled through that zone first.

BUT at this point, I believe the threat probably lies further north. As I mentioned in another post, so far this season, all the troughs and fronts have been fairly amplified, and the ridges haven't lasted long. That said, we truly don't know enough now to say what's going to happen. By Sunday night, we'll know a heck of a lot more.

[c5Camille]

nicolai wrote:
"we should be worrying now as its looking more and more likely frances will hit somewhere along the Southeast coast."


worrying is like a rocking chair... it gives you
something to do... but you never get anywhere

[Josephine96]

Nice rhyme lol

[Tommedic]

I think Nicolai used the incorrect term. I would hope that concerned or reviewing preparations would have been what was being considered.

[Dean4Storms]

Actually indications are that this front depicted for Tues. Aug. 31 on that map is to become stalled about where it is located and note the ridge holding in the northern GOM and the Atlantic Ridge is forecasted to build back and become ridged over the Eastern CONUS. If this verifies Frances would likely take the southern route across FL and into the GOM if she is still south of 28n and west of 70w.

[Trader Ron]

If Frances crosses Florida, i'll eat crow until June 1 2005. What's another 7 months..

[WeatherEmperor]

If Frances crosses Florida, i'll eat crow until June 1 2005. What's another 7 months..

LOL have fun doing that!

<RICKY>

[tracyswfla]

If Frances crosses Florida, i'll eat crow until June 1 2005. What's another 7 months..

!!!!!!!!!!Whenever you say you will eat crow, we get a cane! Enough!

[ChaserUK]

IF, and I know this is a big if atm and Frances does decide to hit the EC, when would this be? I am terrible at calculating these things.

[Trader Ron]

Tracy..I know..I'm a Jonah...

[Weatherboy1]

IF, and I know this is a big if atm and Frances does decide to hit the EC, when would this be? I am terrible at calculating these things.

Probably not until the end of next week if FL ... a day or two or three later if further up the EC. That assumes it doesn't increase quite a bit in speed, or anything. At this point, it appears to be slowing and turning more WNW and NW just as forecast. That slow motion should continue for about 2-3 days. After that, the real "fireworks" begin in terms of having a better idea for where it will hit the US coast ... if it ever hits the US coast.

[WXBUFFJIM]

If Frances crosses Florida, i'll eat crow until June 1 2005. What's another 7 months..

!!!!!!!!!!Whenever you say you will eat crow, we get a cane! Enough!

Ain't that the truth Tracy. One hitting Port Charlotte, Charley. All it takes is one. Another one only aggreviates existing problems. But as they say in the tropical weather world, we hope for the best, but prepare for the worst and hopefully it won't get worse. We're at least 9 days away from seeing anything from Frances approach the coast if at all.

Jim