LBAR most consistant and on track..........

[Dean4Storms]

thus far. So far this tropical model had handled Frances almost dead on and looks the best to this point........


http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LFALBAR.html

[Stormsfury]

As long as Frances stays within the deep tropics, the LBAR will generally perform well ... Once a recurvature or a more poleward motion occurs (gets outside of oh, maybe 20ºN, FUHGET about using LBAR)

SF

[schmita]

That model is a little too close for comfort. And I am not talking about Labor Day weekend !!!!

[Derecho]

LBAR is fine for CV systems hurtling along at a low latitude generally westwards.

It goes kafloeey when there's any danger of a storm doing anything interesting (getting N enough to be close to the US, or any sort of trough in the westerlies approaches.)

Then it will vomit out a series of hilariously wrong tracks, typically. Cannot handle recurves at all.

[MWatkins]

Hey the newest UKMET guidance is out. Think it has the right idea on a faster track...just a little too far to the north...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

MW

[Dean4Storms]

I agree with you guys on the LBAR, it handles this type of situation fairly well but throw in some westerly troughs and Kaboing, all the springs pop out!