NEED HELP-CONFUSED!!

[JTD]

OK, I just read about 6 or 7 posts and what I gather is that the current weakness is not strong enough to make Frances a fish, but there's a trough off the U.S that will make Frances a fish.

So, there is a general consensus, right that: The trough off the U.S will kick Frances out to sea, but that the weakness in the atlantic isn't enough to do so? Basically. what I am asking is that there is a general consensus that one way or the other, this is a fish (especially with the NW turn Frances has taken recently). Or is the consensus the other way? That it won't be a threat?

Or am I way, way off? When you have such complicated scenarios on weather patterns, a lay weather person like me gets confused.

[CaluWxBill]

You are not way off, however the EC trough doesn't appear to be very strong, so it may act similar to the weakness as well.

[TS Zack]

That doesn't make sense. The trough off the East Coast is the weakness that will weaken the subtropical ridge and turn the system on a more northerly componet. Now the trough isnt far enough South to totally pick the system up so once the trough pulls out the ridge builds in you have Frances moving West or West-Northwest again.

[CaluWxBill]

That doesn't make sense. The trough off the East Coast is the weakness that will weaken the subtropical ridge and turn the system on a more northerly componet. Now the trough isnt far enough South to totally pick the system up so once the trough pulls out the ridge builds in you have Frances moving West or West-Northwest again.

Well okay, I guess I thought he meant the next trough to affect the East Coast, but yes the current one, will create a temporary window of time to pull on Frances, then as is expected it will be pushed more Westerly, then the next trough may be able to pull it more around the edge of the Atlantic High. but it is hard to say whether it will pull around the high or just continue westward towards Florida or SE Coast.

[x-y-no]

OK, I just read about 6 or 7 posts and what I gather is that the current weakness is not strong enough to make Frances a fish, but there's a trough off the U.S that will make Frances a fish.

No. The trough off the east coast is the one which is causing the weakness. I don't think it will dig any deeper than it has, however, so it's not sufficient to make Frances a fish.

Basically. what I am asking is that there is a general consensus that one way or the other, this is a fish (especially with the NW turn Frances has taken recently). Or is the consensus the other way? That it won't be a threat?

There's no consensus that this is a fish. In fact, the trend has been the other way over the last couple of days, to more and more concern that this may affect the east coast.

[TS Zack]

The shortwave trough expected to be there in 3 to 5 days will pull out quickly so it is all about timing.

[JTD]

OK. I was going on last night's model maps. But looking at the below link:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

It's quite clear that this may not be a fish at all.

[hurrmia]

the track start to look like andrew that it was w and it turn wnw to nw and high build up again pull west to south fl it donot look good now but still can chance

[Derecho]

So, there is a general consensus, right that: The trough off the U.S will kick Frances out to sea, but that the weakness in the atlantic isn't enough to do so? Basically. what I am asking is that there is a general consensus that one way or the other, this is a fish (especially with the NW turn Frances has taken recently). Or is the consensus the other way? That it won't be a threat?

Frances is so far from the US there are probably 3+ "troughs" that theoretically could turn it away. Or simply ridge weaknesses. All or none of which may or may end up actually existing.

It's not going to turn out in mid-ocean, however, pretty clearly.

There shouldn't be a consensus from anyone about anything, really, regarding the US.

Try to train your mind to worry about the next 5 days, not the end of what would be a 10+ day forecast. 5 Days is hard enough.