Weird Science

[tropicstorm]

Could anyone tell me why the Atlantic side of the mid-Florida peninsula (Brevard / Volusia counties) remains untouched from a direct Atlantic hurricane hit for probably over a century? It's not just dumb luckiness - what is the compelling climatology that keeps hurricanes either south of central Florida or curving NW to the Carolinas? What are the realistic probabilities that a Hugo or Floyd (or Frances?) will eventually not turn & direct hit the central Florida peninsula?

[Steve]

Thiis is a pointedly non-scientific answer - but I think it has to do with the angle of the peninsula there that makes it hard for a system to come up from the SE. The flow just isn't there. It is conceivable that a properly positioned ridge could direct a storm that way from the E or ESE (ala Andrew further south), but it would be rare (once in 2 lifetimes ). I think the curvature of the coast off of NE FL and Georgia kind of does the same thing. From Miami north to SC, it all bends NWand then curves back up.

Steve

[mobilebay]

I Know Hurricane Erin hit somewhere along the Central Florida coast in 1995. However, I can't remember if it was a hurricane at the time.. The reason your asking for MAY be the same reason that Jacksonville rarely gets hit, as well as Savanah, Georgia. The way I've heard it explained is that as Cyclones near the area they are usually steered by one of the two .
1. A ridge to the north that keeps them south of the area.
2. A Trough that hooks them parallel to the coast.
I may be wrong but thats my two cents.

[mobilebay]

Thiis is a pointedly non-scientific answer - but I think it has to do with the angle of the peninsula there that makes it hard for a system to come up from the SE. The flow just isn't there. It is conceivable that a properly positioned ridge could direct a storm that way from the E or ESE (ala Andrew further south), but it would be rare (once in 2 lifetimes ). I think the curvature of the coast off of NE FL and Georgia kind of does the same thing. From Miami north to SC, it all bends NWand then curves back up.
Sorry Steve, Looks like we had the same answer, just two different ways of telling it. We posted at the same time.
Steve

[Steve]

There was kind of a weird situation with the Edouard north of there in 2002. That's a similar pattern that could bring a storm in.

Steve