Area of potential rapid development in Bahamas

[x-y-no]

And off the SE FL coast.

Was looking at this chart of the "Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential"

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

which is a measure of the thickness of the warm surface layer of the ocean, a factor in rapid development of storms. Obviously, one needs a TC in the area and favorable atmospheric conditions for development, but still this looks a little disturbing in the event that something should get into the Bahamas.

[c5Camille]

and jamaica, and cuba, and the gulf of mexico, and
yucatan, and haita, and puerto rico... ect...

[x-y-no]

and jamaica, and cuba, and the gulf of mexico, and
yucatan, and haita, and puerto rico... ect...

Well, yeah, ... but I live in Miami, so obviously I focussed there.

But in my defense, the biggest blob of deep red is in the area I named.

[Three Blind Mice]

Just started raining here. Ocean showers from offshore low.

Watching to see if it starts cranking late Thursday-Friday AM.

[9:48]

On the other hand, the area just SW of Ft. Myers where Charley's rapid intensification took place doesn't look like anything special on that chart.

While a bullseye of oceanic heat content may be one risk factor for (and often, as in the case of Opal) cause of an intensification cycle, it is not the only reason why rapid strengthening takes place.

[george_r_1961]

At the moment this system is baroclinic..if convection can persist we may see tropical development but that doesnt appear likely at this time

[x-y-no]

On the other hand, the area just SW of Ft. Myers where Charley's rapid intensification took place doesn't look like anything special on that chart.

Maybe that's because Charley went through there and churned the water up.

While a bullseye of oceanic heat content may be one risk factor for (and often, as in the case of Opal) cause of an intensification cycle, it is not the only reason why rapid strengthening takes place.

Yeah, I think I said that. Yep. I did.

[x-y-no]

At the moment this system is baroclinic..if convection can persist we may see tropical development but that doesnt appear likely at this time

In starting this topic, I wasn't referencing any particular system, although naturally Frances is a potential concern.

I agree that the stuff currently near N. Florida doesn't look too promising at the moment.

[TLHR]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=38553