What's churning off Florida's......

[dixiebreeze]

Atlantic coast this morning?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

huh....my met said we have a low trying to spin off our coast....it will get blown back in and cause a lot of rain. He did'nt say anything about the blob your talking about??

[HurricaneGirl]

Looking at that too!

[dixiebreeze]

Here's a recent image, also showing some energy in the S. Caribbean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Anonymous]

I think its the blob

[Guest]

Watch the SE Gulf folks slowly rainshowers are popping. If it develops I believe it will take a WNW track

[Rainband]

907
fxus62 ktbw 250600
afdtbw


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
200 am EDT Wednesday Aug 25 2004


Short term (today-fri)...mesoeta insists on keeping weak trough
over the peninsula through Friday while GFS allows trough to
continue slowly west allowing the Atlantic ridge to build in. At
this point...still prefer the more progressive GFS given the time of
the year...but there's no guarantee. I like the wetter GFS early on
and probability of precipitation match current grids quite well so not making any changes
there. On Friday...GFS dries things out to the south as the weak
surface trough continues its retreat westward and deep layer ridge
builds in from the east. This is certainly a possibility...but with
southeast flow and local sea breezes...decided not to lower probability of precipitation
just yet.


Otherwise...temperatures pretty close to climatology although areas that receive
early showers and storms will see lower maximum temperatures...much like what
occurred at the Airport in Tampa yesterday.


Long term (fri ngt-tue)...similar to yesterday morning very little
changes expected during this time frame. Low and middle level ridging
will remain over the north-Central Peninsula through Sunday...then will
sag south to the southern peninsula during Monday and Tuesday as an
upstream upper trough and attendant surface frontal boundary moves
into the southeastern states. Very weak gradient associated with the
ridge will continue to support scattered diurnal convection along the
sea breeze circulations each day...mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. With the ridge sagging south on Monday and Tuesday
may begin to see some early morning convection along my coastal zones
as SW-westerly flow develops...but for now will leave out of the grids.


Similar to yesterday the GFS continues to show a subtle decrease in
precipitable waters across the forecast area with model cross sections depicting middle level dry
air moving into the forecast area from the southeast. Given the
consistency of the GFS with this trend have opted to lower cloud
cover a bit...and cut back probability of precipitation to ~40% (still near climatology lvls)
through the period. Temperatures expected to remain near normal.


&&


Marine...continued generally weak surface pressure gradient leading
to overall good boating conditions. Main hazard will be scattered
thunderstorms with locally gusty winds and frequent lightning...
mainly offshore at night and near the coast in the afternoon and
evening.


&&


Fire weather...no highlights.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 89 75 89 75 / 50 20 50 20
fmy 89 74 90 74 / 50 20 50 20
gif 90 74 90 74 / 60 20 50 20
srq 88 73 88 74 / 50 20 50 20
bkv 90 71 90 71 / 50 20 50 20


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
river Flood Warning in effect for
the Myakka River at the Myakka River State Park...
the Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens...
the Alafia river at Lithia...
the little Manatee river at Wimauma...
the Peace River at Bartow...
the Peace River at Arcadia...and
the Horse Creek near Arcadia...


$$


Short term...jillson
long term....McMichael

[Brent]

Interesting, I don't see much of anything coming out of it though.

[PurdueWx80]

There is definitely a midlevel circulation to the east of Cape Canaveral, and perhaps a low-level circulation just to it's north. It seems as if the processes to start this storm have been initiated, as deep convection continues to form over this area. It does look like it could be a hybrid type development (upper low over FL), but that doesn't mean it won't become a tropical depression or storm in the next 24-48 hours.

[caneman]

There is definitely a midlevel circulation to the east of Cape Canaveral, and perhaps a low-level circulation just to it's north. It seems as if the processes to start this storm have been initiated, as deep convection continues to form over this area. It does look like it could be a hybrid type development (upper low over FL), but that doesn't mean it won't become a tropical depression or storm in the next 24-48 hours.

I agree it has the look. No pressure falls yet but need to keep an eye out for that. Credit Joe B. for recognizing this earlier on if it comes to fruition. And please no Joe B. bashes here. I'm stating a fact that he saw this potential a couple days ago.

[PurdueWx80]

There is definitely a midlevel circulation to the east of Cape Canaveral, and perhaps a low-level circulation just to it's north. It seems as if the processes to start this storm have been initiated, as deep convection continues to form over this area. It does look like it could be a hybrid type development (upper low over FL), but that doesn't mean it won't become a tropical depression or storm in the next 24-48 hours.

Sufficient daylight (for visible loop) has confirmed the presence of the midlevel circulation east of Cape Canaveral. Satellite data still shows most of the convection to the north of this circulation, but long-range radar from Melbourne and/or Jacksonville shows a possible circulation developing under the convection. Like I said before, it may take a while for this to develop, but as soon as a low and midlevel center can stack, intensification should occur. Motion still looks to be slow and erratic until enough of a ridge builds to the north of this.

[caneman]

There is definitely a midlevel circulation to the east of Cape Canaveral, and perhaps a low-level circulation just to it's north. It seems as if the processes to start this storm have been initiated, as deep convection continues to form over this area. It does look like it could be a hybrid type development (upper low over FL), but that doesn't mean it won't become a tropical depression or storm in the next 24-48 hours.

Sufficient daylight (for visible loop) has confirmed the presence of the midlevel circulation east of Cape Canaveral. Satellite data still shows most of the convection to the north of this circulation, but long-range radar from Melbourne and/or Jacksonville shows a possible circulation developing under the convection. Like I said before, it may take a while for this to develop, but as soon as a low and midlevel center can stack, intensification should occur. Motion still looks to be slow and erratic until enough of a ridge builds to the north of this.

I concur and have seen the spin as well. Would this shift West and across the state?

[dixiebreeze]

11:30 TWO sees it too. Might have something here eventually.

[rbaker]

these systems off of east coast have a tendency to move north just like alex did. Rarely, have i seen one move across the state. I believe gulf stream has some indirect influence on these systems, unless that trough to the north moves out and a ridge blocks the north movement then it could move nw.

[9:48]

Eduoard moved W across central Florida two years ago from a similar initial position.

It was only a minimal TS that caused about $1.77 in damage, though.

[Josephine96]

I remember Edouard from 2002.. gave us rain lol

[Josephine96]

I don't know if I'd wanna see even a minimal Frances/Gaston/Hermine right now lol..

Cleaning up from Charley is harder than I thought lol

[KG4HPN]

$1.77! You can't even buy a coke for that.


Right...weather related. Here's the link to the MLB radar site...
http://weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml

Joette
KG4HPN

[Guest]

I also remember the one, I think it was last year, that definitly had a LLC as it moves across S.Florida, but they didn't upgrade it until it was in the GOM. I think it was Erika or Grace.

[WXBUFFJIM]

I think that was erika. Then after it got into the gulf, it literally streaked west across the gulf.