Fish or not a fish that is the question?

[boca]

Any new info on the possible fish forming in East Atlantic? Comments from the experts.

[bigmike]

Well the nhc track certainly makes it look like a fish. No threat to islands or gom if track forecasts as it should. 3 day outlook is pretty certain 5 day and beyond we'll see. Yeah but I'd say a fish.

[frederic79]

The latest model runs I've seen mostly show the WNW then NW movement early on, then bend back left or W late in the period. A98E shows almost due west, BAMD and LBAR NW then bends back W and BAMM NW as the outlier. Depending on latitude gained in response to the trough and the ridge building in and putting this system on a westerly course later on, it will definitely be something to watch here in the CONUS as the storm follows the periphery of the ridge.

[Derecho]

Well the nhc track certainly makes it look like a fish.

Never extrapolate a track beyond the end of the of the track, "Assuming" what comes afterwards.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[Nimbus]

The NHC track calling for a fish surprised me this morning. There is a 500 MB ridge pushing west through the islands and an upper level low over Nova Scotia rolling ESE that looks like it will stay too far north? I would have forecast Frances to be threatening the Netherland Antilles this weekend! Time for me to sit back and watch the professionals maybe I will learn something.

[Derek Ortt]

Why would anyone use A-98E or LBAR? Those mdoels are utterly worthless. The only chance for this to come west at a low latitude is for the system to remain quite weak, and this morning's sat imagery suggests that it is remaining quite weak with only limited deep convection being sheared to the west of the center

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Derek O....My local met said the reason it will be steered more out to sea is because of the low off of our (s.c.) coast?? Is that the reason??

[Derek Ortt]

well... maybe part of it.

There is also going to be a major weakness between the two 500mb ridges near 50-55W. A TC will go into that weakness 99.99% of the time and then all it will take is a trough to send it out of here

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

oh o.k.....thanks!

[Guest]

Bottom line is we need to watch this one, because there is a chance it could hit the U.S down the road.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I agree....you never know. But it is nice to think of it as a fish, for now!

[wxman57]

Derek O....My local met said the reason it will be steered more out to sea is because of the low off of our (s.c.) coast?? Is that the reason??

The current low off the east U.S. coast won't be there by the end of next week when Frances-to-be could be in the area. The weakness/trof well to the north of the storm around 50W may be too far north to do anything but result in a brief slow-down and jog NW, as happened with Isabel last year. Interesting that the 06Z GFS takes the center across the NE Caribbean and then WNW.

I don't think it'll turn north for good with this first front. But the question is -- can it reach the east U.S. coast before the NEXT front moves offshore? Possibly, but probably not.

[Tip]

The GFS model this morning 06z has much stronger ridging in the Atlantic than previous runs. This is getting more interesting.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150s.gif

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[Derek Ortt]

the 0Z GFS representes the storm as a very weak TD/broad area of low-pressure. This likely is an unrealistic representation of the cyclone

[Tip]

Actually its the 06z GFS and although this is fantasy land for the GFS, check out 192hr oh boy!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192s.gif

[wxman57]

One other caveat -- beware the BAM models in a changing upstream environment (as with that trof around 50W). The BAM models are not dynamic, so they may assume what is there now will be there in 5 days, just as strong. Thus the BAMM/BAMD may try to turn Frances NW-N too much beyond 72hrs.

[wxman57]

The 06Z GFS takes it to the lower TX coast late next week:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _348.shtml

[PuertoRicoLibre]

At 162 and 174h, that run of the model has what presumably is Ms. Frances crossing Puerto Rico from the southeast and exiting towards the northwest in the scenario of a stronger than previously expected high. Oh well, here we go again.