looks like a td now

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Derek Ortt

looks like a td now

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 24, 2004 5:47 pm

our CV wave looks as if it is a depression based upon the latest sat images. The images show that the LLC is becoming tighter now with new convection firing closer to the center. This has all the looks of a TD
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#2 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 24, 2004 5:52 pm

I agree..convection has died away from the center and is now concentrating around the obvious LLC..
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#3 Postby TerryAlly » Tue Aug 24, 2004 6:27 pm

T-numbers are 1.0/1.0 .. agencies not fully convinced
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#4 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 24, 2004 6:45 pm

I agree Derek and with a CDO forming over the apparent LLC it could develop rather rapidly overnight. I noted the 18Z Tropical and some Globals are bring 96L alot further west with some now trending alot more westward. If our ridge to the north doesn't begin to back down with this development it could be a threat to the NE Carib. Islands or scare the heck out of them.
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#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 24, 2004 6:49 pm

those t numbers are 6 hours old and that is only from one agency. afwa and tafb also give estimates, which are not available
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#6 Postby jabber » Tue Aug 24, 2004 6:53 pm

Looks like a TD... think they will call it at 11:00pm or the 5:00
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#7 Postby cajungal » Tue Aug 24, 2004 6:57 pm

Doubt if it will make it all the way across. It will probably be a fish.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:00 pm

cajungal wrote:Doubt if it will make it all the way across. It will probably be a fish.


I really hope it stays as a fish, we don't need another striking system. Charley has already done a great job in destruction, unfortunately.
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#9 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:12 pm

The track is still uncertain so it is just as well the NHC doesn't call it yet. Still plenty of time to get warnings up for the islands.
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#10 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:22 pm

Looks like a TD to me as well. IF it affects the islands, it's about 4 days away, so there's plenty of time to watch it.
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#11 Postby obxhurricane » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:27 pm

Guys, guys, guys...Frances has not a snow balls chance of threatening the Islands. Not ready to say it will totally be a fish...but the Islands are not a likely target. She will turn NW in a couple of days. After that all bets are off...
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#12 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:32 pm

Sure does look like a TD. However, just because its satellite presentation looks great it might just be a MLC. I have see the NHC upgrade much horrible looking systems in years past. I'd like to say this is a can't miss but I won't..............MGC
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#13 Postby caribepr » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:34 pm

Ewwwww, I hate it when someone says not a snowball's chance in hell :) Shhhhhhh!
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#14 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:41 pm

caribepr wrote:Ewwwww, I hate it when someone says not a snowball's chance in hell :) Shhhhhhh!


Yeah, it usually means it'll affect those areas. :)
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#15 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:42 pm

LOL cari. I think it will be upgraded. I hope so. It is up to T 1.5, so it should.
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#16 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:44 pm

The ridge out ahead of TD6 has built west all the way to Barbados. The ULL currently in the Caribbean may roll west ahead of the storm and not provide much steering. If the ULL starts retreating west there will be no recurve east of the leeward/windwards.
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#17 Postby obxhurricane » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:52 pm

If if and buts were nuts, we'd all have a merry x-mas!
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#18 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:54 pm

lol. Its still a long way out. But the models are shifting more and more to the left.
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RE:

#19 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Aug 24, 2004 8:07 pm

Hello all. I agree that the wave looks like it has a well defined surface circulation on the 0000Z Color Enhanced IR Imagery. It has nice convective banding features around the center, and a nice over all circular structure. I think it is now a TD, and will be upgraded to such at 11 pm EDT.
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#20 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 24, 2004 8:11 pm

this may be being carried internally as a TD as forecasts are being made by NHC on this system as of 18Z
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