TD galloping WNW

[TerryAlly]

FROM THE 8:05 PM TWD

...Special feature...
a strong tropical wave is located about 500 nm west of the
southernmost Cape Verde island along 34w/35w S of 17n moving
west 20-25 kt. 1012 mb low is centered along the wave axis near
11n. Latest satellite imagery indicates that the tropical
wave/low have continued to become better organized with
increasing convection and loosely-organized banding structure
beginning to develop. Scattered moderate convection from 8n-12n
between 33w-38w. Vertical shear and upper level outflow are
expected to remain favorable over the next few days and a
tropical depression could form later tonight or Wednesday as the
system moves westward.

[hial2]

West bound, not WNW

[Brent]

It's also not moving at 20-25 knots. The TWO at 5:30pm said 15 mph which is between 10 and 15 knots.

[Renata]

It's also not moving at 20-25 knots. The TWO at 5:30pm said 15 mph which is between 10 and 15 knots.

Hmmm ... so Brent .. what are you saying? When the TWO and TWD give conflicting information, we believe the TWO.

The TWO was at 5:30 pm. The TWD was two and a half hours later.

Appreciate your clarification.

[Brent]

It's also not moving at 20-25 knots. The TWO at 5:30pm said 15 mph which is between 10 and 15 knots.

Hmmm ... so Brent .. what are you saying? When the TWO and TWD give conflicting information, we believe the TWO.

The TWO was at 5:30 pm. The TWD was two and a half hours later.

Appreciate your clarification.

That is true.

Can anyone confirm that this system has sped up? I'm not saying the TWD is wrong, I just don't believe it would speed up so much in 2 1/2 hours.

[TerryAlly]

West bound, not WNW

My reason for saying WNW is that in 6 hours it moved from 10.5N to 11.0N (can't remember the longtitude). My assumption (and may be totally wrong here) is that it's jog towards the WNW or 280 degrees at least has started ... I know it's premature to say so ... but that was and is my assumption.

[Brent]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Defintely NOT moving at 20-25 knots. That's 25-30 mph.

[KatDaddy]

Well the last few IR frames do show a push to the W than WNW. Looks to still be moving at 15kts. I do not see the 20-25kts movement. Possible typo?? Looking at the time lapse IR and WV I see W movement continuing for awhile. The flow turns dramatically NW and NNW to NW over the Islands. The models are picking up on this trof and turning soon to be TS Frances out over the open ocean...........FISHHHHHHHH as we say BUT models do change as new data is input. This is a tough call but I say it makes it under the trof and heads further W. hial2 make note of this so I can be corrected at a later date

[Ola]

Those coordinates are just estimates, and they will go up and down with each TWD untill a clear center is defined. Do not try to get a movement angle on those coords. In this stage its actually better to try and follow the overall envelope.

[tailgater]

MY TG&Y radar gun has it clocked at 191/2 knots at a heading of 2921/2 degrees

[TerryAlly]

Can anyone confirm that this system has sped up? I'm not saying the TWD is wrong, I just don't believe it would speed up so much in 2 1/2 hours.

At 2:00 pm it was 10.5N 32.4W
At 8:00 pm it was 11.0N 34/35W (whatever that is).

My crude calculation is 97NM or roughly 16 KT (97/6 hours)

My crude track is below

[Brent]

This is exactly why I can't wait for the official advisory. It will put all this to rest.

[Derek Ortt]

anyone can see from the satellite estimate fixes that this system has sped up.

Also, the TWD is issued not by NHC, but by TAFB.

One other point, the NHC advisory positions do not determine motion in the early stages due to center relocations and reformations. Must use best track after the fact where these wobbles are smoothed out

[Mattie]

Gee Dennis - there is still a TG&Y still in St. Amant? (I'm from Denham Springs)

lol

[rbaker]

actually hard to say its heading wnw, with not a positive center not yet determined. Basically if it is 280 degrees and 270 is due west, then it probably w wnw for a compromise. Regardless, the question is when and where will it start that nw course. I go with M. Walkins who says that any storm has a 1 out of 5 chance of hitting us if it has gone above 20n and has not reached the 60 long line.

[TerryAlly]

This is exactly why I can't wait for the official advisory. It will put all this to rest.

The official advisory has put it to rest Brent .....

Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2004


...Sixth tropical depression of the season forms...
Satellite images this evening indicate that a tropical depression
has formed from the strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression
Six was located near latitude 11.2 north...longitude 36.0 west or
about 870 miles...1400 km...west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28
km/hr...and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression could
become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...11.2 N... 36.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch