Not Buying 96L Recurvature Package

[MWatkins]

I'm not sure I am buying what the 18Z GFS is selling in terms of motion. Basically it has the system making it to 40w in 48 hours (from 2PM)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_048m.gif

Has it SLOWLY crawling NW by day 4:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096m.gif

Continuing on a crawl NW through day 7:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_144m.gif

And having the system GET LEFT BEHIND beneath a building 594DM ridge to the north by day 8...near 18N 50W...then coming w to wnw for a good while thereafter.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif

And into the fantasy-land run of the model...into day 11 looks what is coming up to the east of the south/central Bahamas?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_264m.gif

See...I can't buy into a recurvature scenario from the models when they have failed to initalize this system well (the 18Z GFS is the best initialization so far)...over one of the most data-poor regions of the earth. For some reason the 12Z UKMET insists there is a tropical storm back at 22W..

What I dont buy about the model is I don't see this system hanging out around 40W for a week. I think it comes past that point and gets drawn up for a time but could very well make it across.

We'll see...but I'm not going to hug the models just yet...if the GFS starts doing this for the next few runs then the recurvature idea before 50W is out the window..I think.

Also...the satellite presentation in terms of the overall envelope continues to improve. Slow...but steady organization should continue.

MW

[ameriwx2003]

Good points !!.. Also... this comes from reading J.B.:) and I Know he is big on following the WPAC and teleconnections.. the Typhoons in the WPAC were forecast to recurve also and last time I checked that wasn't the case anymore... So maybe the 7-10 day scenario in the Atlantic may follow??.. Just a thought to toss out:):0

[TS Zack]

Yea Mike, I don't see this thing recurving like the GFS is doing. Number one it is moving it way to slow and number two it is moving it north in the next 48 hours. This system is still very weak and isn't looking like it will form in the next 24 hours.

[Renata]

I'm not sure I am buying what the 18Z GFS is selling in terms of motion.

Thanks for the company Mike. I just posted that in another thread ... but saying that it was my gut feeling and not science. What makes me not believe the models is exactly what you also wrote - as far as they are concerned we already have a storm but no-one is telling the poor wave that it should behave like a storm!

R

[Guest]

obviously there will be changes in initialization and parameters but...I really believe that the large ridges building over canada and the maritimes are not overdone -and may be even underdone. Just taking overall trends by the GFs and how they have fared overall this summer and in past years -. Over time I do think that there will be at least 2 systems in the next 2 weeks that threaten the islands and perhaps the bahamas, in the least. The 'fantasy land fall' or whatever, yeah I do agree it's way too far out to put any stock into beyond 240 hours and steering trends

[obxhurricane]

Well...all globals show the weakness in the ridge. As a forecaster...I love to see agreement in the models. We must assume that Frances will move poleward and likely very slowly. Similar to the GFS. Once the ridge bridges the gap...assuming it does...Frances will likely resume a W or WNW track.

[Brent]

I'm not buying into the recurvature yet either. Of course, I never buy into something being a fish until it's obvious, so, LOL

Steve Lyons said on the tropical update earlier slow, steady intensification is likely with this system. I like that.

[jabber]

Mike... thanks for the great post (as always). I guess we will have to wait and see. If it develops significatly before 50 I think a more poleward motion will take place... but what do I know

[Aquawind]

I hear ya MW!! @10.5 north it has a long ways to go before recurve to fishland..

[frederic79]

Mike,
Is the ridge in the latter part of the forecast period expected to build westward as did the ridge that affected Georges in '98. If I recall Georges formed in about the same location and moved steadily W to WNW beneath a westward building ridge until reaching the western periphery and following it until landfall. I know we're talking 8-10 days, give or take, but SST's may make this very interesting down the road, especially near the Bahamas and in the Gulf, if that were to apply.Thanks in advance.

[ameriwx2003]

One thing I remember about Georges also.. is that it was forcast to re-curve and each model run brought it further west... Lets see what happens the next several days.. it appears we will have plenty to talk about soon:):)

[PurdueWx80]

Mike,
Is the ridge in the latter part of the forecast period expected to build westward as did the ridge that affected Georges in '98. If I recall Georges formed in about the same location and moved steadily W to WNW beneath a westward building ridge until reaching the western periphery and following it until landfall. I know we're talking 8-10 days, give or take, but SST's may make this very interesting down the road, especially near the Bahamas and in the Gulf, if that were to apply.Thanks in advance.

The ridge is forecast to build at a much higher latitude than the one preceding Georges did. That one was centered at about the same latitude as GA/SC down to the Gulf, whereas this one will likely be centered east of New England. If it can make it far enough west to feel the effects of it, the (hypothetical) storm would potentially affect the eastern Seaboard, rather than the Gulf. That is at least a week out, if at all.

[KatDaddy]

I find hard to believe the recurvature also. The wave is way far S and moving W. I side with Joe B and MWatkins.

Here is the latest TWD


TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 27W IS REPOSITIONED A BIT FARTHER
E ALONG 25W/26W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE A BROAD 1010 MB LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
10.5N. TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS
WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES FORMING. COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO PINPOINT THIS WAVE AS THE NEXT FEATURE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

[KatDaddy]

Oh Yeah................This looks like Frances is on the way. Very nice developing TD/TS tonight............can someone say symmetrical.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes.. it does look good but looking at this Sat picture I never would have guessed the wave was at 25 /26 W.. Shows what I know:):)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Brent]

I believe this will easily be a tropical depression in 24 to 36 hours, unless it really falls apart. It may be something sooner than that if the current trend continues.

[obxhurricane]

Yes becoming more impressive by the hour. At least we can all agree now that this will be Frances. Question is...where will Frances go? Answer...West, then WNW to NW(moving slowly), then back to the W or WNW...with a slight increase in forward speed.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like our next player here for sure. I agree pretty much here with you Mike. I can see some wnw movement and maybe even a stair step to the NW for a time but it will do good to miss the NE Carib. Islands unless we see this trend in the movement by tomorrow or it stalls for several days. The GFS makes absolutely no sense, this Tropical feature will be near the NE islands by Friday.

[flyingphish]

Survey Says..No Recurvature ! Why are there so few arguments for the most probable outcome. Never have been able to figure that one out. Sort'a like selling low and buying high...Must be some gratification in being wrong most of the time. Put your money on a fish storm I say.

[Guest]

Just like a Phish concert you never know what is going to happen.