Pls don't jump me for asking. Should the tropics being picking up soon or do you think the season will be a bust or what? Opinions please.
After 5 named storms things are surely quiet and this is the end of August.
Just a question
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bfez1
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Just a question
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Josephine96
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Brent
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Re: Just a question
bfez1 wrote:Pls don't jump me for asking. Should the tropics being picking up soon or do you think the season will be a bust or what? Opinions please.
After 5 named storms things are surely quiet and this is the end of August.
Yes it will. The peak is September 10th. We're actually still a little ahead of where we should be on this date. Last year, the F name(Fabian) didn't form until August 28th. Erika the storm before that ended on August 17th. So we had a lull last year around this time as well.
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#neversummer
The MJO really doesn't have that much of an effect. We should see some storms starting sometime this week, first probably 96L and maybe a storm off the East Coast and maybe the Gulf or Caribbean blow up with something.
If you can remember look how Alex and then Bonnie then Charley came about they came out of nothing. Alex a ULL, Bonnie was a wave that completely died out, Charley came from a nice wave that died then came back to life.
If you can remember look how Alex and then Bonnie then Charley came about they came out of nothing. Alex a ULL, Bonnie was a wave that completely died out, Charley came from a nice wave that died then came back to life.
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Derek Ortt
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SouthernWx
I beg to differ with anyone who thinks this season has been quiet thus far....
For the period ending August 22nd, we've seen 5 named storms. The only two years since 1980 with more than 5 by 8/22 were 1990 and 1995. This is the first hurricane season since 1969 to produce two major hurricanes before August 20th...and only the 2nd season since 1953 to do so.
I'm extremely concerned about the possibility of more landfalling intense hurricanes. On average, the U.S. is slammed by two major canes in a season once every decade or so...the last time in 1985, nearly two decades ago. We are overdue.
The last time the U.S. was impacted by three major hurricanes in one season occurred way back in 1954. Since 1845, the return period for a "three-peat" in one season is once every 39 years.
Again, we are well past the return period for such an event.
We've been extremely fortunate in the U.S. since 1995....with well above normal numbers of major hurricanes, yet only witnessing four make landfall on U.S. shores as a major cane (including Charley). I'm very concerned we may "make up for lost time" later this season, and in near-future hurricane seasons to come.
Nature always has a way of balancing things out...whether it be flood vs drought, bitter cold vs extreme heat, and regarding storm activity.
Peninsular Florida has only experienced 3 landfalling major hurricanes since 1961....Betsy, Andrew, and Charley. Three major hurricanes in 43 years....when the normal return period once per 4 years (based on 1845-1960 and 1900-1960 records). It won't surprise me if southern Florida gets slammed by another major hurricane before Halloween. The last major Florida peninsula hurricane in September.....Betsy in 1965. The last major Florida peninsula hurricane in October...King in 1950.
Even though hurricanes Andrew and Charley both impacted the Florida peninsula in August....historically both September and October are far more likely months for a landfalling major hurricane in this area.
It also won't surprise me if one...or possibly even two more major hurricanes impact the U.S. coast along the Gulf or Atlantic coast in September or October.
For those who think the SW coast of Florida has experienced "their hurricane for 2004", and have nothing else to worry about.....hurricane history shows many examples of coastal areas which were targeted by 2 or 3 major hurricanes in the same season; North Carolina in 1955....the NE U.S. in 1954....Florida in 1848, 1871 and 1950. There have only been four major hurricanes to strike the Tampa Bay area since 1840, but two of them occurred in 1848....only three weeks apart.
For the period ending August 22nd, we've seen 5 named storms. The only two years since 1980 with more than 5 by 8/22 were 1990 and 1995. This is the first hurricane season since 1969 to produce two major hurricanes before August 20th...and only the 2nd season since 1953 to do so.
I'm extremely concerned about the possibility of more landfalling intense hurricanes. On average, the U.S. is slammed by two major canes in a season once every decade or so...the last time in 1985, nearly two decades ago. We are overdue.
The last time the U.S. was impacted by three major hurricanes in one season occurred way back in 1954. Since 1845, the return period for a "three-peat" in one season is once every 39 years.
Again, we are well past the return period for such an event.
We've been extremely fortunate in the U.S. since 1995....with well above normal numbers of major hurricanes, yet only witnessing four make landfall on U.S. shores as a major cane (including Charley). I'm very concerned we may "make up for lost time" later this season, and in near-future hurricane seasons to come.
Nature always has a way of balancing things out...whether it be flood vs drought, bitter cold vs extreme heat, and regarding storm activity.
Peninsular Florida has only experienced 3 landfalling major hurricanes since 1961....Betsy, Andrew, and Charley. Three major hurricanes in 43 years....when the normal return period once per 4 years (based on 1845-1960 and 1900-1960 records). It won't surprise me if southern Florida gets slammed by another major hurricane before Halloween. The last major Florida peninsula hurricane in September.....Betsy in 1965. The last major Florida peninsula hurricane in October...King in 1950.
Even though hurricanes Andrew and Charley both impacted the Florida peninsula in August....historically both September and October are far more likely months for a landfalling major hurricane in this area.
It also won't surprise me if one...or possibly even two more major hurricanes impact the U.S. coast along the Gulf or Atlantic coast in September or October.
For those who think the SW coast of Florida has experienced "their hurricane for 2004", and have nothing else to worry about.....hurricane history shows many examples of coastal areas which were targeted by 2 or 3 major hurricanes in the same season; North Carolina in 1955....the NE U.S. in 1954....Florida in 1848, 1871 and 1950. There have only been four major hurricanes to strike the Tampa Bay area since 1840, but two of them occurred in 1848....only three weeks apart.
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Derek Ortt
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SouthernWx
I beg to differ with anyone who thinks this season has been quiet thus far....
For the period ending August 22nd, we've seen 5 named storms. The only two years since 1980 with more than 5 by 8/22 were 1990 and 1995. This is the first hurricane season since 1969 to produce two major hurricanes before August 20th...and only the 2nd season since 1953 to do so.
I'm extremely concerned about the possibility of more landfalling intense hurricanes. On average, the U.S. is slammed by two major canes in a season once every decade or so...the last time in 1985, nearly two decades ago. We are overdue.
The last time the U.S. was impacted by three major hurricanes in one season occurred way back in 1954. Since 1845, the return period for a "three-peat" in one season is once every 39 years.
Again, we are well past the return period for such an event.
We've been extremely fortunate in the U.S. since 1995....with well above normal numbers of major hurricanes, yet only witnessing four make landfall on U.S. shores as a major cane (including Charley). I'm very concerned we may "make up for lost time" later this season, and in near-future hurricane seasons to come.
Nature always has a way of balancing things out...whether it be flood vs drought, bitter cold vs extreme heat, and regarding storm activity.
Peninsular Florida has only experienced 3 landfalling major hurricanes since 1961....Betsy, Andrew, and Charley. Three major hurricanes in 43 years....when the normal return period once per 4 years (based on 1845-1960 and 1900-1960 records). It won't surprise me if southern Florida gets slammed by another major hurricane before Halloween. The last major Florida peninsula hurricane in September.....Betsy in 1965. The last major Florida peninsula hurricane in October...King in 1950.
Even though hurricanes Andrew and Charley both impacted the Florida peninsula in August....historically both September and October are far more likely months for a landfalling major hurricane in this area.
It also won't surprise me if one...or possibly even two more major hurricanes impact the U.S. coast along the Gulf or Atlantic coast in September or October.
For those who think the SW coast of Florida has experienced "their hurricane for 2004", and have nothing else to worry about.....hurricane history shows many examples of coastal areas which were targeted by 2 or 3 major hurricanes in the same season; North Carolina in 1955....the NE U.S. in 1954....Florida in 1848, 1871 and 1950. There have only been four major hurricanes to strike the Tampa Bay area since 1840, but two of them occurred in 1848....only three weeks apart.
For the period ending August 22nd, we've seen 5 named storms. The only two years since 1980 with more than 5 by 8/22 were 1990 and 1995. This is the first hurricane season since 1969 to produce two major hurricanes before August 20th...and only the 2nd season since 1953 to do so.
I'm extremely concerned about the possibility of more landfalling intense hurricanes. On average, the U.S. is slammed by two major canes in a season once every decade or so...the last time in 1985, nearly two decades ago. We are overdue.
The last time the U.S. was impacted by three major hurricanes in one season occurred way back in 1954. Since 1845, the return period for a "three-peat" in one season is once every 39 years.
Again, we are well past the return period for such an event.
We've been extremely fortunate in the U.S. since 1995....with well above normal numbers of major hurricanes, yet only witnessing four make landfall on U.S. shores as a major cane (including Charley). I'm very concerned we may "make up for lost time" later this season, and in near-future hurricane seasons to come.
Nature always has a way of balancing things out...whether it be flood vs drought, bitter cold vs extreme heat, and regarding storm activity.
Peninsular Florida has only experienced 3 landfalling major hurricanes since 1961....Betsy, Andrew, and Charley. Three major hurricanes in 43 years....when the normal return period once per 4 years (based on 1845-1960 and 1900-1960 records). It won't surprise me if southern Florida gets slammed by another major hurricane before Halloween. The last major Florida peninsula hurricane in September.....Betsy in 1965. The last major Florida peninsula hurricane in October...King in 1950.
Even though hurricanes Andrew and Charley both impacted the Florida peninsula in August....historically both September and October are far more likely months for a landfalling major hurricane in this area.
It also won't surprise me if one...or possibly even two more major hurricanes impact the U.S. coast along the Gulf or Atlantic coast in September or October.
For those who think the SW coast of Florida has experienced "their hurricane for 2004", and have nothing else to worry about.....hurricane history shows many examples of coastal areas which were targeted by 2 or 3 major hurricanes in the same season; North Carolina in 1955....the NE U.S. in 1954....Florida in 1848, 1871 and 1950. There have only been four major hurricanes to strike the Tampa Bay area since 1840, but two of them occurred in 1848....only three weeks apart.
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