Wet phase of MJO has entered the Atlantic basin

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

The green lines represent the wet phase and already the MJO favorable has arrived in the EPAC so expect activity to pick up in that basin in the comming 2 weeks.For the atlantic the unfavorable or dry MJO represented by the brown lines is about to go away leaving the door open for the wet phase so we will see as the peak of the season arrives in the next 3 weeks the activity picking up in the atlantic.

[Matthew5]

Its kind of funny that the dry phase has made 5 named storms. While the wet phase has made none? So this is a quastion that needs to be asked?

[Derek Ortt]

I think Charley just proved that the MJO is relatively insignificant. We'll probably have more storms (although 5 under the dry, with 2 RI U.S. landfalls is going to be HARD to top)

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

The green lines which show the wet phase of the MADDEN JULIEN OCCILLATION or MJO haved now spilled into the atlantic and this factor will contribute to lower the pressures in the deep tropics making conditions more favorable in the comming 3 weeks just in time for the peak of the season.

[Derek Ortt]

something seems strange about those MJO maps this year. We had a quick spurt of 5 storms during the dry phase, but not even a threat of a depression during the wet. I almost wonder if there is not a little mistake

[cycloneye]

Well Derek right now the effects from the wet phase of MJO are seen in the west pac by the form of 2 typhoons,in the central pac by Estelle although it has weakened because of the Hawaii shield,at the EPAC with a couple of systems that can develop and now in the atlantic the east atlantic wave.The effects from the MJO favorable have the maximun effects 2 weeks from when it enters a basin.But your argument is valid about how active the atlantic was with a dry phase however I can't believe that this grafic is flat wrong judging from the activity I mentioned above in the other basins.But it is not normal to have a very active period in a dry phase so if there is another link to the MJO grafics it would be good to see if they show the same trend.

[LarryWx]

something seems strange about those MJO maps this year. We had a quick spurt of 5 storms during the dry phase, but not even a threat of a depression during the wet. I almost wonder if there is not a little mistake

It has been strange. Perhaps there isn't much statistical credibility to the MJO cycle as far as its effect on Atlantic tropical activity? In other words, maybe there is somewhat of a tendency for more activity during the wet phase and vice versa but nothing close to a perfect correlation? Or perhaps this season so far has been an extreme anomaly? Maybe there will be even more than 5 storms during the upcoming wet phase?? That seems quite doubtful, but not impossible. I'd love to see a multidecadal study done. I don't know what to think at this point.

[TS Zack]

Now the dry phase is in the WPAC and they have 2 storms.

[MGC]

last season TC formation was just about split 50-50 between wet and dry MJO. Sorry, but I just don't see the relationship between MJO phases and TC formation......MGC

[Brent]

LOL

So far Wet MJO has sucked.

[CaluWxBill]

Dr. Steve Lyons didn't see much credibility in forecasting an increase in tropical cyclone formation with a wet MJO. He said it was only a very minor factor in what is needed for storms to develop and that other factors such as shear and in the case now strong Azores high is much more of a factor in development. He said a wet MJO may have marginal benefits, but overall isn't a big influence. This was on the Barometer Bob Show in early July I believe.

[Tip]

Just for speculation purposes, the NAO (another teleconnection indice) really bottomed out during the Atlantic basin active period.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html