Where did this come from????

[PurdueWx80]

There is a new wave in the eastern Caribbean (well, maybe not new, but I don't recall seeing it before tonight). It could be just the nocturnal convective max, but it is in a relatively organized blob. Will have to be watched.

[Matthew5]

It is just another ball of convection alot like the others. First thing why this should not develop is it is moving way to fast at 25 mph. Second it is moving close to south America. Which the heat low distroys the low levels of these systems. I would really keep a close eye on that Cape verde tropical distrabance at this moment. It appears that it has made it out over the ocean, in seems to be developing! The Gfs,Cmc,Ukmet develop it. Also watch the central Pacific system might be a landfall on southern Hawaii with some hurricane force winds.

[Thunder44]

From 205am TPC discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY RELOCATED INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
NOW ALONG 63W/64W S OF 17N MOVING W 20-25 KT. RECENT FLARE-UP IN
WAVE RELATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W...MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIN BAND
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 13N62W 11N57W...PASSING
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM S OF BARBADOS.

[Nimbus]

Upper level low north of PR venting convection and an upper level high developing just north of Haiti. Looks like low shear over the caribbean west northwest of the wave all the way to a trough over western Bahamas.

[perk]

Rbaker mentioned the wave you are referring in a post yesterday. Since then the convection has increased quite a bit.

[Derecho]

CIMISS has it really badly sheared; blowup seems related to it experiencing the shear, actually.

[KatDaddy]

Convection caused by shear. Streamlines show a Westerly Upper Level Winds that increase from 20 to 40kts over the NE Caribbean which creates favorable lift thus forming the convection we are currently seeing.

[Lowpressure]

Shear seems to let up in the central and western Carib. It is worth watching. It seems to be a trend lately down there, systems look pretty good, but can not close off..

[rbaker]

that's right shear will be letting up over w caribbean, plus the area its in now is not a climtology favorable area, when it gets w of Jamaica then we will see what happens. Believe it will have to slow a little also.

[rbaker]

checking some ship reports in area, show some winds of 20-30kts in the area, coming from 060-090 degrees, abc islands reporting e to se winds.
this was as of 1200z. Pretty good size wave, like I said in previous post if it holds together could get interesting in western caribbean.

[PurdueWx80]

Sorry about this random post at 3 a.m. I had just gotten home from the bars and was super excited to see so much convection when I hadn't really seen the wave that rbaker mentioned before. The shear map is interesting, it seems to be in a favorable place for outflow now, especially with that 40 kt max to the northeast pullling everything out. Does anyone happen to know what this shear product is (i.e. 850 to 300, surface to 500, or how is it calculated?). Anyway, still looks pretty interesting this afternoon, although the convection has been on the wane the past couple of hours. Looks to be a lot of energy feeding in from the SE side, as there is a line of Cu, towering Cu stretching far down to the SE.

[Rainband]

poof

[Guest]

lol dont b e sorry, it actually may need watching over the next couple of days.