Hurricane Center Defends

[califas]

Hurricane Center Defends
Charley Forecast
By Ken Kaye
Sun Sentinal Staff Writer
8-20-4

Despite criticism that it should have better anticipated Hurricane Charley's rapid intensification and quick turn, the National Hurricane Center's forecast wasn't that far off, a preliminary post-mortem shows.

When the storm was 24 hours away, the center's projected track was 45 miles from where it landed, on the barrier islands between Cape Coral and Punta Gorda, according to figures released on Wednesday.

That almost cut in half the center's 10-year average error of 87 miles when a storm is a day away, hurricane center Director Max Mayfield said.

"That's pretty doggone good," he said. "It's a little odd to me that we had a good forecast here, but there was some question why it wasn't better."

AFTER CATEGORY 4 CHARLEY SLAMMED INTO THE PORT CHARLOTTE AREA ON FRIDAY, CHARLOTTE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER WAYNE SALLADE COMPLAINED THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOULD HAVE BETTER WARNED OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. OTHER GULF COAST OFFICIALS AND RADIO TALK SHOWS SOON QUESTIONED WHY THE CENTER DIDN'T SEE THE SO-CALLED LAST-MINUTE TURN.

THE HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE, IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, HAD CHARLEY AIMING FOR LANDFALL NEAR TAMPA AT 11 A.M. ON THURSDAY, ABOUT 110 MILES TO THE NORTH OF PUNTA GORDA. BUT BY 2 P.M. THAT DAY, THE TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH, ONLY 45 MILES FROM GROUND ZERO, MAYFIELD SAID.

WHEN CHARLEY WAS 12 HOURS OUT, THE FORECAST TRACK WAS 35 MILES OFF TARGET, WHILE THE AVERAGE ERROR IS 48 MILES FOR THAT PERIOD. AT 11 A.M. FRIDAY, WHEN CHARLEY WAS ABOUT FIVE HOURS OUT, THE PROJECTED TRACK WAS DEAD ON SANIBEL ISLAND AND PUNTA GORDA.

The problem, hurricane officials said, is that too many residents focus on the forecast track, which goes to a specific point, when hurricanes can cause great destruction more than 100 miles on either side of the track.

Charley's destruction emphasized that residents should be prepared whenever a hurricane warning has been posted for their area, officials said.

"We always emphasize that a hurricane is not a point," hurricane specialist Lixion Avila said. "You have to assume the hurricane will hit you if you're under a warning."

Tony Carper, Broward County's emergency management director, said all emergency managers know forecasts can be in error.

"We certainly experienced that with Hurricane Irene," he said, referring to the storm that swamped South Florida in October 1999, after it was initially forecast to go up the Gulf Coast.

In Charley, "A lot of people were focused on the track into Tampa rather than thinking that possibly we could get this, too," Carper said. "And then the bad thing occurred."

Mayfield said that because the forecast track, or "that skinny black line," can be misleading, he is considering doing away with it and just showing the full area where a hurricane could meander.

AS FOR THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, MAYFIELD ADMITTED THAT THE CENTER'S FORECAST WAS LACKING. FIVE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL, THE FORECAST CALLED FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 110 MPH, OR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH. CHARLEY SUDDENLY SPUN INTO A 145-MPH CATEGORY 4 BUZZ SAW.
Mayfield said the center has warned for years that its intensity forecasts need improvement.

"It would have been a disaster if it had been a Category 3," he said. "The fact that it was a Category 4 makes it an even greater disaster."

The center plans an in-depth analysis of Hurricane Charley in the coming weeks, he said.

[Rainband]

They did an awesome job IMHO. Like I said before Kudos to the NHC.

[califas]

I think its a good thing to do away with the line.

[Derek Ortt]

There really isnt anything to defend for the WC, except maybe the 11 a.m. late intensity upgrade. Other than that, the criticism is completely unwarranted. For the EC of Florida and up the coast, there, warnings were issued late due to track forecasts that were too far to the east. Daytona only received 9 hours of lead time for the hurricane force winds. My guess is that their track forecast leaned slightly too much on GFDL (and most of the models). Only the AVNI had the system emerging inot the Atlantic and making that 3rd landfall

[Rainband]

I think its a good thing to do away with the line.

They always say the forecast is subject to large errors. It is an idividuals decision to go by the line. Our locals said not to pay attention to the line. It's comman sense imho

[Guest]

the only error they made in my opnion was not upgrading Charley to a category three at the 11 am advisory.

[Stephanie]

I think that the only thing they should've done differently was upgrading it at the 11 am discussion as well. Maybe 10 years from now we will be able to better forecast a sudden turn, but not now. Even if they did, there wouldn't have been enough time to get everyone that should've been gone in the first place evacuated.

Drop the line, keep the cones!

[Myersgirl]

I credit our local Fort Myers Mets for warning us of a track change before the NHC. They took a risk to part from the NHC, but they gave us some precious time to prepare.

[Matthew5]

MyersGirl I agree it was a good move for the Fort Myers Mets to do. Might have gived the people a little more time.

[Myersgirl]

We had to laugh and cry , when Jim Reif said to get in a closet with a matress over our heads, We were expecting a tropical storm force wind field. We sure learned a few lessons!!!!

[Rainband]

Be ready if your anywhere near the cone, glad your ok

[califas]

I think its a good thing to do away with the line.

They always say the forecast is subject to large errors. It is an idividuals decision to go by the line. Our locals said not to pay attention to the line. It's comman sense imho

common sense to who. A layperson only knows what professionals tell them because they do not know any better.

[Guest]

maybe we should start educating the public about these things, and then next storm tell them that if they are within the cone, they are at risk.

[Rainband]

I think its a good thing to do away with the line.

They always say the forecast is subject to large errors. It is an idividuals decision to go by the line. Our locals said not to pay attention to the line. It's comman sense imho

common sense to who. A layperson only knows what professionals tell them because they do not know any better.

Good point, guess some sort of education is needed, hopefully after Charley people will prepare more. I get your drift though. Being a weather enthusiast I know what these storms can do. most don't.

[rbaker]

i know are local mets in the tpa bay area, always tell people to not pay attention to just where the center is to pass. In fact, I've heard Steve Lyons of the twc say many times, don't pay so much attention to where the center passes, but where the center goes and to the right of land fall, which makes since 90 pct of the time, because the right side is usually the worse side. And the same thing happened this time with Charley.

[Rainband]

maybe we should start educating the public about these things, and then next storm tell them that if they are within the cone, they are at risk.

Our locals did tell people not to depend on the line. I see what your saying Hopefully like I said above this will be a wake up call for all

[Rainband]

i know are local mets in the tpa bay area, always tell people to not pay attention to just where the center is to pass. In fact, I've heard Steve Lyons of the twc say many times, don't pay so much attention to where the center passes, but where the center goes and to the right of land fall, which makes since 90 pct of the time, because the right side is usually the worse side. And the same thing happened this time with Charley.

I agree, I think it's kind of a like a tornado watch, areas in and around the watch(in this case, cone) area need to prepare

[crazycajuncane]

I think the media should be blamed for making a big deal out of Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg, instead of warning everyone within 100 miles that they were in danger. It was just too much talk about the "big cities".

[Rainband]

I think the media should be blamed for making a big deal out of Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg, instead of warning everyone within 100 miles that they were in danger. It was just too much talk about the "big cities".

I disagree, they did the best they could. IF the cane would have hit those BIG cities it would have been justified?? Think about it

[jlauderdal]

maybe we should start educating the public about these things, and then next storm tell them that if they are within the cone, they are at risk.

as a resident of soputhern florida i cn say there is more thn enough education. june 1 there are tv specials, brochures in papers and grocery stores, etc. people choose not to listen. i say go with the cone, dump the line and beware.