Danielle no longer going to Europe,Big change in track

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 26


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2004



There are changes in the track models in the 12z run...a big plus
for the GFS if this happens. Danielle has been meandering during
the past few hours while embedded in very weak steering currents.
Most of the models are building a ridge north and east of the
cyclone forcing Danielle to move slowly toward the north and then
toward the northwest. The GFS began to suggest this northwestward
or westward trend much earlier than the other models. I have no
option but to make a significant change in the official track
forecast and move Danielle very slowly northward and then
northwestward.
Neverthereless...although Danielle remains as 35-knot tropical
storm...strong shear is expected to continue over the cyclone so a
gradual weakening trend is still expected. However...since
Danielle is no longer forecast to move toward the northeast...it
could linger a little bit longer as a tropical depression or a
remnant low instead of becoming extratropical.

Forecaster Avila

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/2100z 30.0n 37.4w 35 kt
12hr VT 20/0600z 30.0n 37.5w 30 kt
24hr VT 20/1800z 30.8n 37.2w 25 kt
36hr VT 21/0600z 31.5n 37.0w 25 kt
48hr VT 21/1800z 32.0n 37.3w 25 kt
72hr VT 22/1800z 32.5n 37.5w 25 kt
96hr VT 23/1800z 33.0n 37.7w 25 kt
120hr VT 24/1800z 34.0n 39.0w 25 kt

Now the forecast is for the system to move NW to west as the GFS has showed in recent runs instead to the NE to Europe.

[ColdFront77]

Interesting, "semi-"dramatic change of events with Danielle... perhaps future changes in forecast will make us all the more interested.

[rainstorm]

its way out there. it will be a cane again though

[NJCane]

Do forecasts show a decrease in shear later in the forecast period? Otherwise it is toast

[Guest]

so right now, we're expecting it to enentually re-strengthen to a hurricane? and the GFS has it moving towards the U.S right now, and more and more models are making it go west/ south west. Maybe we should watch this.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2053W5.gif

Here is the forecast track from NHC for Danielle that makes a left turn.