The EC Model: Continues to Provide Superior Performance

[donsutherland1]

While some have argued that the EC Model has an "undeserved" reputation, those who are familiar with the Model and its performance recognize that little could be farther from the truth.

When it comes to performance, there is real sizzle to back the EC's sex appeal among Mets:

Historic Performance:
<img src="http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/aczhist.sm.gif">

Recent Performance:
<img src="http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/acz5.gif">

In the end, so long as the EC continues to provide such outstanding performance, it will continue to enjoy an outstanding reputation among Models just as Paris and Rome do with regard to being fashion trendsetters.

[Guest]

DONT expect any any recognition of thse facts by Derecho who claims to be have a more reserved less hype viewed of the wordl but in fact displays a tendency to never change his position no matter the data says

[donsutherland1]

DT,

I don't see how anyone can ignore the statistics that demonstrate the EC's consistently outstanding performance.

[Derecho]

Ummm...that's very nice, but......

So where's the average TC track forecast error?

Probably not even workable as a statistic since the EC's apparent lack of bogussing means a very high number of runs with an actual storm not even trackable on the model, I'd guess.

I could do it myself with Stormtrakker, but unfortunately none of the public EC maps on the web allow the use of the modeltrack lat-lon feature.....

[wxcsi]

While some have argued that the EC Model has an "undeserved" reputation, those who are familiar with the Model and its performance recognize that little could be farther from the truth.

When it comes to performance, there is real sizzle to back the EC's sex appeal among Mets:


In the end, so long as the EC continues to provide such outstanding performance, it will continue to enjoy an outstanding reputation among Models just as Paris and Rome do with regard to being fashion trendsetters.

I wonder if Peter at EMC would agree that this is an apples to apples comparison for the operational environment?

M

[wxman57]

Ummm...that's very nice, but......

So where's the average TC track forecast error?

Probably not even workable as a statistic since the EC's apparent lack of bogussing means a very high number of runs with an actual storm not even trackable on the model, I'd guess.

I could do it myself with Stormtrakker, but unfortunately none of the public EC maps on the web allow the use of the modeltrack lat-lon feature.....

I agree, the data provided don't indicate how the ECMWF stacks up against other models in predicting the formation and track of tropical cyclones. I recall just last week the EC driving Charley into Houston and stalling it there for 2 days.

[donsutherland1]

Wxcsi,

The point is that the EC does not have an "undeserved" reputation. One can argue over specific parameters, but this is a high-performing model. It isn't perfect and some might find weaknesses (e.g., one need only examine model biases for some), but it is very solid.

As for the comments about storm tracks, no model is perfect on those. The ECMWF had a bad run with respect to Charley. But there are many occasions on which it has solid run-to-run continuity and nails storm tracks. One should not judge it on the basis of a single bad run.

[USAwx1]

Wxcsi,

The point is that the EC does not have an "undeserved" reputation. One can argue over specific parameters, but this is a high-performing model. It isn't perfect and some might find weaknesses (e.g., one need only examine model biases for some), but it is very solid.

As for the comments about storm tracks, no model is perfect on those. The ECMWF had a bad run with respect to Charley. But there are many occasions on which it has solid run-to-run continuity and nails storm tracks. One should not judge it on the basis of a single bad run.

All one has to do is consider how the ECMWF will outpreform the GFS when it comes to major east coast low pressure systems during the winter. especially WRT run-to-run continuity.