Gulf Stream Shutdown in 3-5 years?

[Fire in the Sky]

Ditto x-y-no's comment's. There is certainly evidence that humans have and continue to impact the earth through industrialization and combustion emissions. I am not a doomsayer and don't think something so drastic as what was portrayed in that movie would happen, particularly not in the blink of an eye, so to speak. I personally believe it is in our best interest to live in harmony with our planet, rather than believe it has infinite capacity for whatever we put into it. It is foolish to think there won't be consequenses for that (AKA, injecting waste into a fault zone in Colorado, which lubricated the fault and started generating small quakes back in the 80's). Our oceans, and the air are no different. the ozone holes are real, and can be connected in part to manmade releases. Cogniznt recognition of our impact and minimizing that impact as time continues cannot hurt. I point no fingers, for I am just as guilty as the next person in not car pooling and owning a smaller, gas guzzling SUV. IMHO hybrid vehicle replacement cannot come quickly enough.

Mark

[USAwx1]

So you believe something like "The day after tommorrow" will occur. Wouldn't that break several rules of Thermodynamics? Also the guy who wrote the book which was made into the movie claims Aliens told him this was going to happen.

Yes.

Oh BTW..."Aliens" are just excellent sources of Information...IF you are psychologically Disturbed.

[Stormsfury]

A huge load of crap! Blaming Bush and America for something that won't happen is pure hogwash. I am sick and tired of hearing all this global warming bull. We have just had 5 consecutive days of record low temps here on the Miss coast. Look, the world has been hotter and colder long before human had any influence at all. So, how can anyone with half a brain conclude humanity is causing global warming and then a rapid cool down into an ice age...........MGC

I could actually kiss you right now ... GREAT POST!

[x-y-no]

So you believe something like "The day after tommorrow" will occur. Wouldn't that break several rules of Thermodynamics? Also the guy who wrote the book which was made into the movie claims Aliens told him this was going to happen.

Yes.

Oh BTW..."Aliens" are just excellent sources of Information...IF you are psychologically Disturbed.

Way to trivialize the discussion, guys. Attribute stuff to people that they never said, then attack the crap they didn't say.

Great.

[Stormsfury]

I'm going to order the UFO book. Last time I used any of that oil stuff I ended up pregnant......MGC

OMG ... ROTFLMAO!! ...

[Stormsfury]

Awesome post, Don ... you ALWAYS come thru in the clutch ...

Several points of caution before one accepts a doom-and-gloom scenario that Greenland's ice is going to suddenly melt--within our lifetimes--and result in abrupt climate change or even accept a single hypothesis for the ongoing warming.

Currently, the mean temperature in Central Greenland is around -31.0°C (-23.8°F). That's a 0.85°C rise over the last 500 years.

However, a look at Greenland's GISP2 ice core sample reveals that several points are in order:

1) Over the past 10,000 years, most periods have been warmer than the current one. In fact, if one includes the entire 1500-present period, the current period is the coldest of the past 10,000 years:

Timeframe................................ Temp.C
8000-7500 yrs ago.....................-29.5
3000-3500 yrs ago.....................-29.9
9000-8500 yrs ago.....................-29.9
9500-9000 yrs ago.....................-30.0
7000-6500 yrs ago.....................-30.1
2000-2500 yrs ago.....................-30.2
10000-9500 yrs ago................... -30.3
6000-5500 yrs ago.....................-30.4
5500-5000 yrs ago.....................-30.5
7500-7000 yrs ago.....................-30.6
3500-4000 yrs ago.....................-30.6
2500-3000 yrs ago.....................-30.7
4000-4500 yrs ago.....................-30.7
6500-6000 yrs ago.....................-30.7
1500-2000 yrs ago.....................-30.8
8500-8000 yrs ago.....................-31.2
5000-4500 yrs ago.....................-31.2
500-1000 yrs ago.......................-31.5
1000-1500 yrs ago.....................-31.5
0-500 yrs ago............................-31.9

So, what this might well suggest is that the recent warming is not an unusual recovery.

2) There has also been a more dramatic rise in the 500-year average temperature than what is currently taking place. The period 8000-7500 years ago was 1.8°C (3.24°F) warmer than the period 8500-8000 years ago.

3) During a 394-year period from roughly 6214 B.C. to 5820 B.C., the mean temperature in central Greenland rose 3.74°C (6.73°F) from -32.4422°C (-26.4°F) to 28.702°C (-19.7°F)--the warmest on record.

4) From roughly 2000 years ago to 9800 years ago, the mean temperature in central Greenland was frequently above -30°C (-22°F).

This data from Greenland's ice core samples raises several questions:

1) Is the ongoing warming a mere continuation of a long-term warming trend that has fluctuated somewhat over the past 10,000 but continues?

2) If Greenland's ice did not melt to the extent that it disrupted global climate to the extent that a new Ice Age actually resulted when its climate was notably warmer than the current one, what new data suggests that this will become more likely until or unless Greenland has an even warmer climate?

3) If Greenland experienced explosive warming, including rise of 6.74°F in its climate during a less than 400-year period before the climate resumed its cooling, what drove that warmup? What changed to reverse it? If so, could this factor be driving the ongoing warmup and will a similar reversal occur at some point down the road?

In my view, the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere does play a role in promoting warming. But the extent of its role against the backdrop of non-human factors remains quite uncertain. Moreover, there is past precedent for a warmer Greenland climate and more explosive warming than what is currently ongoing. That needs to be explained before one can conclude with a high degree of confidence that most or even much of the ongoing warming has been driven by the buildup of CO2.

[Stormsfury]

x-y-no, I think USAwx1 has a valid point, here ... basically speaking, we're dissecting the mind that wrote that report is basically needs to be on PSYCH 101 watch ...

I'm NOT saying that there ISN'T ET's, EBE, extraterrestrial beings or what not (I believe we are NOT alone in the Universe, but that's another topic altogether) ... but statements from the author throws up a large bag of red flags ... (credibilitily issues).

So you believe something like "The day after tommorrow" will occur. Wouldn't that break several rules of Thermodynamics? Also the guy who wrote the book which was made into the movie claims Aliens told him this was going to happen.

Yes.

Oh BTW..."Aliens" are just excellent sources of Information...IF you are psychologically Disturbed.

Way to trivialize the discussion, guys. Attribute stuff to people that they never said, then attack the crap they didn't say.

Great.

[x-y-no]

x-y-no, I think USAwx1 has a valid point, here ... basically speaking, we're dissecting the mind that wrote that report is basically needs to be on PSYCH 101 watch ...

No. the original "So you believe something like 'The day after tommorrow' will occur." was directed at "Fire in the Sky", who was responding to my post of info from WHOI. Both the WHOI site I referenced and the Pew Research site he referenced contained reviews or the movie which if NorthGaWeather had bothered to look he would have seen point out the impossibility of the movie scenario and what the real science is.

Somehow, instead, he (and apparently USAwx1) concluded that one or both of us "believe that something like 'The Day After Tomorrow' will occur."

Sorry if I seem to have a short fuse, but I've encountered that kind of BS diversionary tactic too often.

[NorthGaWeather]

So you believe something like "The day after tommorrow" will occur.

Don't know how you got that idea. Neither the link I gave nor the ones Mark gave say anything of the sort. Nor did either of us in our posts.

Yes I'm afraid one of you did mention the day after tommorrow.

Good post x-y-no

Here are a few more resources for the research minded folks:

EPA Climate Action Report 2002: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarmi ... e/appD.pdf

and the Pew Center on Global Climate Change:
http://www.pewclimate.org/

The Pew Center has a similar article on the possibility of abrupt climate change through a review of "The Day After Tomorrow".

We definitely live in a changing world, be it due to climate change or politics. Have a great one!

Mark

[NorthGaWeather]

x-y-no, I think USAwx1 has a valid point, here ... basically speaking, we're dissecting the mind that wrote that report is basically needs to be on PSYCH 101 watch ...

No. the original "So you believe something like 'The day after tommorrow' will occur." was directed at "Fire in the Sky", who was responding to my post of info from WHOI. Both the WHOI site I referenced and the Pew Research site he referenced contained reviews or the movie which if NorthGaWeather had bothered to look he would have seen point out the impossibility of the movie scenario and what the real science is.

Somehow, instead, he (and apparently USAwx1) concluded that one or both of us "believe that something like 'The Day After Tomorrow' will occur."

Sorry if I seem to have a short fuse, but I've encountered that kind of BS diversionary tactic too often.

I didn't say you believed it would happen. But I'm sure a few people on this board think something like that would happen. BS tactic ok, x-y-no you can bite me.

[Guest]

Europe Is Warned of Changing Climate

4 minutes ago

By JAN M. OLSEN, Associated Press Writer

COPENHAGEN, Denmark - Rising sea levels, disappearing glaciers in the Alps and more deadly heat waves are coming for Europeans because of global warming, Europe's environmental agency warned Wednesday.



The European Environment Agency said much more needs to be done — and fast. Climate change "will considerably affect our societies and environments for decades and centuries to come," its 107-page report said.


It said rising temperatures could eliminate three-quarters of the Alpine glaciers by 2050 and bring repeats of Europe's mammoth floods two years ago and the heat wave that killed thousands and burned up crops last summer. The rise in sea levels along Europe's coasts is likely to accelerate, it added.


Global warming (news - web sites) has been evident for years, but the problem is becoming acute, Jacqueline McGlade, executive director of the Copenhagen-based agency, told The Associated Press. "What is new is the speed of change," she said.


"It takes a long time to see these changes in the glaciers, at the sea level, so like big tankers turning around, they take a long time to change. But now that we see them changing direction, then it means that there are warning signals in many parts of our life," she added.


McGlade said action is needed at all levels in Europe — continental, regional, national and local. She said, for example, that European nations should insist climate change be on the agenda of international free-trade talks.


Greenpeace welcomed the report. Flooding, heat waves and melting glaciers "make people become more and more aware of the consequences of global warming," Steve Sawyer of Greenpeace International told AP.


Global warming is believed to be intensified by human activities, in particular emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.


The European Union (news - web sites) has been a leader in pushing for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol (news - web sites), a U.N. pact drawn up in 1997 to combat climate change by reducing carbon-dioxide emissions worldwide in 2010 to 8 percent below 1990 levels.


So far 123 countries, including all 25 EU members, have ratified the pact, but it isn't in effect because it hasn't reached the required level of nations accounting for 55 percent of the industrialized world's emissions. The United States, the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to ratify, arguing the agreement would hurt its economy, and Russia also hasn't signed.


Wednesday's report, "Impacts of Europe's Changing Climate," urges that the Kyoto Protocol be adopted, saying climate changes "will considerably affect our societies and environments for decades and centuries to come."


It said the 1990s were the warmest decade on record, and the three hottest years recorded — 1998, 2002 and 2003 — occurred in the last six years, with the average global temperature now rising at almost 0.36 degrees per decade.


The report singled out floods across Europe two summers ago and last summer's heat wave in western and southern Europe as examples of destructively extreme weather caused by global warming.


The flooding killed about 80 people in 11 countries, affected more than 600,000 and caused economic losses of at least $18.5 billion, the report said. More than 20,000 deaths, many of them elderly, were recorded during the 2003 heat wave, which also caused up to 30 percent of harvests in many southern countries to fail, it said.


The report said melting shrank glaciers in the Alps by 10 percent in 2003 alone and predicted three-quarters of them could be gone altogether by 2050. European sea levels have been rising by 0.03-0.12 inches a year over the last century, it said, and the rate of increase could be two to four times faster during this century.


The agency is sponsored by the 25 EU countries as well as Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway.

Maybe this will help alicia.

[x-y-no]

Yes I'm afraid one of you did mention the day after tommorrow.

OK, and if I mention "Stargate" then I must believe that our miltary is actually travelling to other planets via wormholes, right? Ooops ... I just did ... man, what a whacko I must be ...

Both the site I referenced, and the site Mark referenced have pages explaining what's wrong with the premise of the movie. The discussion we were having was in no way "out there" or scientifically unreasonable. I'm totally at a loss as to how you could have interpreted it otherwise, and I'm even more baffled how you could go back and look at them and only come up with "one of you mentioned the movie" istead of realizing that you had indeed totally misinterpreted everything we were writing.

[Guest]

Some people need to relax. This thread was made so we could debate whether there will be global cooling/warming, how fast it would happen, and whether humans are influential in the cooling/warming. Please calm down, and don't just assume everything like I saw with the accusation that someone believed the Day After Tomorrow would occur.

[Guest]

I am new to this forum, but I have been looking for a while at the threads and nikolai people get impatient at things like this. They get overly sensitive at issues like this. There are other forums in this website for things like this....

[donsutherland1]

Texas2step,

By any chance, do you have a link to the actual report.

A recent report concerning the impact of global warming on California mentioned only the worst-case scenario for summertime from the most aggressive model. Moreover, the report relied strictly on two scenarios and two models for annual, summer, and winter seasonal temperatures. It did not draw upon any paleoclimatic data to support its findings.

Unless a study relies on actual data (and paleoclimatic data goes back in cases thousands of years) and not strictly theoretical model output, it will lack the rigor necessary to really influence public policy change. In fact, if total reliance is placed on model output, public policy will likely wait until the actual climate is unfolding as predicted by the model(s) and that will require an extended period of time for such a record to have statistical significance.

[Guest]

I got the article from yahoo's news section.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... ate_change

However, I have a sister in California and she says at times it can be downright death in the summer and the winters are almost no more. Meaning very little rain as to past history of normal rainfall.

[Stormsfury]

I got the article from yahoo's news section.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... ate_change

However, I have a sister in California and she says at times it can be downright death in the summer and the winters are almost no more. Meaning very little rain as to past history of normal rainfall.

A lot of that is related to the stagnant and persistent PNA/-NAO pattern that's been commonplace in the last 4 years ... and this summer, a very unheard of and pronounced PNA pattern (lends to Western Ridging/Eastern troughing) ...

SF

[Guest]

stormsfury, this drought has been going on for over 4 years.

[Galvestongirl]

sorry, but for so many people saying this is hogwash...this topic sure is getting alot of attention....5 pages!!!! I personally find alot of fault in the article..but, I am not going to feed the fire on this topic...lol

[Stormsfury]

stormsfury, this drought has been going on for over 4 years.

I know, and that same drought which has been ongoing, is feeding on itself ... (the old addage, drought begat drought) ... My point is that the extreme drought MAY have created its own pattern and a possible explanation to the exaservated extremity of the PNA for this time of year ... (where generally, the PNA is non-existent)

Fortunately, here, the worst drought in South Carolina history broke in mid/late 2002 with copious amounts of rain from landfalling tropical systems and a pattern change (that same pattern change made things worse for people out West) ...