BOC

[ColdFront77]

But it is a bay, I suppose that's one step in the geographic pecking order below a gulf, and there the arbitrary line is drawn. I suppose if they wanted to get technical, they could certainly include it, but then I guess they'd have to include the Gulf of Honduras too...so as not to offend anyone by leaving any equally deserving subregions of the Atlantic Basin out. Geopolitical correctness y'know.

I know what you mean. The two bodies of water are attached to each other.

[PurdueWx80]

This needs to be watched yet again today as the storms appear to be more organized than yesterday. The convection over Mexico moved over water and has really blown up into a decent MCS type feature over the BOC. Wouldn't be surprised if there is a midlevel vortex in there somewhere. Visible sat pics will be very telling in a few hours if convection wanes a bit.

[rbaker]

looks to be moving nw as the westerlies have retreated a little to the north, but not by too far, so something come happen in there, by awful close to land mass to hinder development. I have not seen veracruz pressure or wind, so can't go there to verify.

[Johnny]

Last night, Steve Lyons on TWC said that upper level winds are not favorable for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. I guess he is right?

[PurdueWx80]

Last night, Steve Lyons on TWC said that upper level winds are not favorable for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. I guess he is right?

Right now they look to be ok in the northern Gulf, but are better from the central Gulf down to the BOC. That whole area is under relatively light winds under the upper ridge. The northern Gulf is experiencing winds as high as 20 kts at 500 mb, so that is bad for development there, but good for development further south because it acts as an outflow jet, if there were a system to ventilate. The upper low over the Yucatan is unfavorable for development because the upper level confluence won't allow much convection to form or sustain itself underneath it for long periods of time. Surface pressures are somewhat high, although it is difficult to tell w/o Veracruz reporting and very few buoys that far south. The convection is becoming outflow dominated now (as in there are outflow boundaries at the surface, so the convection is elevated) and is weakening.

[Stormcenter]

I know not every cluster of thunderstorms (blobs) in the GOM
develops into a organized tropical system but the BOC
looks like it may be an exception to the rule if it persists and
hangs around for a few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Derecho]

And the convection is basically now gone, of course.

When I figured out there was 1 TC forming every four years in the BOC, I used a fairly liberal definition of the BOC extending a few degrees N of the Yucatan.

Had I used the strict definition as that part that is S of the Northern Tip of the Yucatan, it would have been probably one storm forming every 7 or 8 years in the BOC.

There flat out isn't enough room there. While it's one of the classic areas in the Atlantic basin for somtehing to get "Stuck" (witness Roxanne in 1995....which didn't actually FORM in the BOC, though) there usually is at least some Easterly or SE flow.

Whenever the cloud is over the BOC that starts the weekly "All eyes on the BOC!" thread occurs, even if it actually was going to form a TC it typically has all of 6-12 hours, at most, over water. Anything that hasn't formed is likely to be guided by the low-level flow and really has a difficult time staying over water.

I really think it was Bret that may have started the whole BOC-staring thing. But a rare, rare storm, not the norm.

Almost all "BOC" storms actually become at least TDs in the Western Caribbean (including Opal, which became a TD in the Western Carribean, believe it or not) and move there.

[ColdFront77]

There shouldn't be any reason why a member can't question the "BOC" or any other topic that some members think is "foolish."

[Stormcenter]

There shouldn't be any reason why a member can't question the "BOC" or any other topic that some members think is "foolish."

Very well said Coldfront77.

[rbaker]

I remember more than once out of every 7 or 8 yrs a depression or storm forming down there, esp. later in the year, alot of times going into mexico, or even sw in veracruz. So Derecho, look at late season oct or even nov tracks you see formation of cyclones down there, however as you point out not particularly strong ones.