Orlando Mets vs. NHC

[soonertwister]

I'm afraid that while more frequent updates as a storm nears landfall may be useful, in most cases it won't make any difference to the people at risk. At that point it is probably too late for those who gambled to be able to evacuate with any real degree of safety. You always have to allow yourself wiggle room if you are going to evacuate from a storm. By waiting until the last minute you risk being stranded without safe shelter in a potentially deadly storm. The last hours prior to being hit are not the time to be making a hasty decision.

[caneman]

I happen to agree with all of this but it still doesn't change the fact that NHC can give more timely updates perhaps by using Satellite/Radar interpretation. They are constantly looking at ways to learn where systems go, why they rapidly intensify so it wouldn't hurt them to give more timely updates say <12 hours prior to landfall. If they can give 3 and 6 hour updates when a system is far from shore wouldn't hourly updates close to landfall be far even more useful. This isn't bashing NHC. We all have to adapt at our jobs so as not to lose out to competition. Will ive in a fast pace world, i.e., Microwave Ovens, Cell PHone and the list goes on and on. We want it and we want it now, not 3 hours from now. All I'm stating is that if NHC doesn't become more timely near landfall, they should just change their name to ONHC- or the Open Water National Hurricane Center.

Well, yeah ... there's no harm in saying a product can be even better, and I think you're right that theirs could be. But that didn't quite seem to be the spirit of what was being said by the Orlando mets. There's a big difference between "they were slow and this isn't the first time" and "they gave us a lot of good information but here's how I think they could do better."

yes, this should not have come at expense from NHC - they do a great job. You, I and everyone here knows that but the unfortunate thing is that unless they adapt, for the regular joe schmo, perception can become reality.

[joseph01]

I'm afraid that while more frequent updates as a storm nears landfall may be useful, in most cases it won't make any difference to the people at risk. At that point it is probably too late for those who gambled to be able to evacuate with any real degree of safety. You always have to allow yourself wiggle room if you are going to evacuate from a storm. By waiting until the last minute you risk being stranded without safe shelter in a potentially deadly storm. The last hours prior to being hit are not the time to be making a hasty decision.

I agree wholeheartedly with this assessment. However, the point that should be brought to bear, is not what the populace SHOULD do, but what they WILL do. I don't believe most people in Florida or any other state, will evacuate simply when they are under a hurricane warning zone or in the forcast cone. I've seen it posted more times than I can count "They were in the forcast cone!"

Unless people think, or are told that they are at serious risk for destruction and death, they will never mass evacuate. And unfortunately, that is why this is a difficult problem to wrestle with.

Also, it is nice to see this discussion allowed to go forward, and not simjply labelled the "most ridiculous post ever".

[RichG]

which will more cleary make the point with the general public. Instead of drawing a line with the forcast map (i.e. right into tampa bay) just show the whole probable cone. And the text forcast could simply state that the most probable landfall in between the two outliers. I think the NHC did a great job. Having said that I believe there are systemic problems that which be tweaked which would have prevented the confusion. You all make excellent points however sometimes somebody has to scream the emporer has no clothes. The storm was clearly heading torward the fort myers area while the NHC was still showing landfall of the eye in the Tampa area as late as 11:30. What are the local mets to do when they see cat 4 storm coming down on there local folks? Yes the NHC is the final authority on Hurricane forcast however, if a cat 4 storm is heading straight at you you cannot ride the NHC forcast right into the ground.

[sfwx]

Has the five day forecast put out by the NHC with storms, made things better or worse for the general public?

Eric