NWS AFDSJU Disc.about CV wave

[*StOrmsPr*]

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 PM AST MON AUG 16 2004

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

"ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO NEW NAMED SYSTEM SINCE EARL...ALL EYES
ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSING ON AN AREA OF CONVECTION AT 10 NORTH 26
WEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 26 KNOTS SINCE
BEFORE IT LEFT THE AFRICAN CONTINENT YESTERDAY. MODELS DO NOT
DEVELOP THE SYSTEM RIGHT AWAY AND SEEM TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL
REMAIN AS A TROPICAL WAVE TRAVELING WEST NEAR OR SOUTH OF 10 NORTH
UNTIL IT GETS TO ABOUT 45 WEST ON FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT LOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM IS NEAR
15.5 NORTH AND 56 WEST...AT WHICH POINT THE MODEL SWEEPS THE SYSTEM
NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WINDS WENDING THROUGH THE NORTH
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM DO REACH 40 KNOTS AT THE 305 K LEVEL BEFORE
THIS TIME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP SOONER.
NEVERTHELESS THESE LATEST WAVES APPEAR TO BE MOVING TOO FAST TO
DEVELOP RIGHT AWAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
SINCE IT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE TRACK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
FORECAST WHERE MODELS ARE NOT NEARLY AS RELIABLE. "

[Guest]

why is it going so fast. I don't think it will survive at that speed.