EPAC has been unusually quiet in 2004

[Stormsfury]

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1982/track.gif

1982 in the Atlantic was also disinteresting. Only one major cane (Debby) and 6 NS

So what does this all prove?

We may be able to make the assumption that the long-term cycles in the Atlantic and pacific will have a stronger governing force over short term (seasonal) fluctuations in activity. The QBO phase MAY also play a role with the East phase being favorable for EPAC activity, and the west phase favorable for Atlantic activity.

EAST QBO's haven't seemed to play much of a factor in recent years since 1995 when the ATL thermaline circ. became stronger than average ...

Code: Select all

1995   19   11   4 - QBO WEST/Neutral
1996   13   09   6 - QBO EAST/La Niña
1997   08   03   1 - QBO WEST/MEGA El Niño         
1998   14   10   3 - QBO EAST/La Niña         
1999   12   08   5 - QBO WEST/La Niña
2000   15   08   3 - QBO Transitioning to EAST/Neutral to La Niña
2001   15   09   4 - QBO EAST until Nov/Neutral
2002   12   04   2 - QBO WEST/El Niño
2003   16   07   3 - QBO EAST/Neutral


Code: Select all

1995    8.38    8.01    8.79   11.79   14.92   15.62   11.74    9.53    6.98    3.43   -0.77   -4.57
1996   -5.79   -6.90   -9.92  -11.08  -14.88  -17.03  -23.93  -25.85  -26.02  -23.40  -18.08   -9.86
1997   -3.57    1.94    4.77    9.74   12.37   14.50   14.85   11.69   11.64    9.91    5.74    0.78
1998   -0.85   -2.96   -4.92   -7.82  -14.08  -18.57  -22.97  -24.70  -22.12  -18.77  -12.22   -3.96
1999    3.09    5.84    8.59   13.51   15.56   15.23   14.11   11.91   11.18   10.62    6.01    6.43
2000    4.85    4.20    5.51    3.98   -0.99   -7.83  -13.13  -15.31  -15.52  -14.04  -15.07  -14.56
2001  -15.69  -15.53  -15.99  -17.73  -20.99  -23.31  -24.45  -21.67  -14.29  -10.81   -3.88    1.48
2002    4.64    8.00    9.32   14.03   14.16   13.26   10.05   10.60    8.90    7.66    4.46   -0.50
2003   -1.39   -1.44   -3.30   -8.57  -13.94  -18.01  -22.99  -24.64  -22.51  -20.34  -17.86  -11.38
2004   -4.84    2.61    5.45   10.46   12.97   11.75    9.96 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00


[USAwx1]

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1982/track.gif

1982 in the Atlantic was also disinteresting. Only one major cane (Debby) and 6 NS

So what does this all prove?

We may be able to make the assumption that the long-term cycles in the Atlantic and pacific will have a stronger governing force over short term (seasonal) fluctuations in activity. The QBO phase MAY also play a role with the East phase being favorable for EPAC activity, and the west phase favorable for Atlantic activity.

EAST QBO's haven't seemed to play much of a factor in recent years since 1995 when the ATL thermaline circ. became stronger than average ...

Code: Select all

1995   19   11   4 - QBO WEST/Neutral
1996   13   09   6 - QBO EAST/La Niña
1997   08   03   1 - QBO WEST/MEGA El Niño         
1998   14   10   3 - QBO EAST/La Niña         
1999   12   08   5 - QBO WEST/La Niña
2000   15   08   3 - QBO Transitioning to EAST/Neutral to La Niña
2001   15   09   4 - QBO EAST until Nov/Neutral
2002   12   04   2 - QBO WEST/El Niño
2003   16   07   3 - QBO EAST/Neutral


Code: Select all

1995    8.38    8.01    8.79   11.79   14.92   15.62   11.74    9.53    6.98    3.43   -0.77   -4.57
1996   -5.79   -6.90   -9.92  -11.08  -14.88  -17.03  -23.93  -25.85  -26.02  -23.40  -18.08   -9.86
1997   -3.57    1.94    4.77    9.74   12.37   14.50   14.85   11.69   11.64    9.91    5.74    0.78
1998   -0.85   -2.96   -4.92   -7.82  -14.08  -18.57  -22.97  -24.70  -22.12  -18.77  -12.22   -3.96
1999    3.09    5.84    8.59   13.51   15.56   15.23   14.11   11.91   11.18   10.62    6.01    6.43
2000    4.85    4.20    5.51    3.98   -0.99   -7.83  -13.13  -15.31  -15.52  -14.04  -15.07  -14.56
2001  -15.69  -15.53  -15.99  -17.73  -20.99  -23.31  -24.45  -21.67  -14.29  -10.81   -3.88    1.48
2002    4.64    8.00    9.32   14.03   14.16   13.26   10.05   10.60    8.90    7.66    4.46   -0.50
2003   -1.39   -1.44   -3.30   -8.57  -13.94  -18.01  -22.99  -24.64  -22.51  -20.34  -17.86  -11.38
2004   -4.84    2.61    5.45   10.46   12.97   11.75    9.96 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00


Which still draws us back to the assumption that the Long-term ocean cycles dictate the decadal and multi-decadal tendencies in Atlantic and Pacific activity. The QBO however when west MAY have a stronger enhancing (suppressing) effect effect on Atlantic (pacific) activity than the Easterly phase has on Mitigating Atlantic and enhancing Pacific activity. in other words the West QBO signal is stronger and more influential than the east QBo cycle fore whatever reason.

Its what I get out of the above information.

See the link in my sig for more info (scroll down to the QBO section).

[Guest]

USA, is it possible for el nino to have an influence on the supression of systems in the pac.

[USAwx1]

USA, is it possible for el nino to have an influence on the supression of systems in the pac.

No. El Nino events can only enhance.

[Guest]

k, thanks..

[USAwx1]

read over my tropical season update for more info on this season's ENSO condition -- and Impacts...link in signature.