End of the 12Z GFS: "For Entertainment Purposes Only&qu

[Derecho]

That's the current CV wave hitting South Carolina (in 16 days) with 3 TCs behind it, one of them recurving though.

[CaluWxBill]

Of course the model never develops either of them to a great enough strength to show the effect its outflow has on its path and the path of following cyclones. This is the problem with using the GFS unfortunately or any model that does not key on a system for that matter.

[HURAKAN]

If this is true and the current activity continues, this season is prone to be extremely active. Fortunately, Dr. William Gray has until September to once again update his forecast.

[Air Force Met]

Hmmm...it can't initialize and keep a cat 2 hurricane...but it can forecast them 16 days into the future.

Yeah.

[Dean4Storms]

A grain of salt I shall take!

[Brent]

HAHA!

Reminds of the "blizzards" that were forecast for the Deep South 16 days out every few days this past winter.

How much snow did we get? Just a few flurries from one event.

[CaluWxBill]

Hmmm...it can't initialize and keep a cat 2 hurricane...but it can forecast them 16 days into the future.

Yeah.

The point is, is that it doesn't develop a cat 2 hurricane. Where do you get that idea? I see a 1012 mb contoured low hitting the coast, that is hardly TS strength, if even, of course they are real tight systems that require high resolution modeling on a global scale. but models can't accurately develop the outflow of a hurricane if it only sees a 1012 low. you wouldn't need much outflow for the small amount of convergenge that this pressure represents.

[rainstorm]

at least we know where it wont go, hehe

[Air Force Met]

Hmmm...it can't initialize and keep a cat 2 hurricane...but it can forecast them 16 days into the future.

Yeah.

The point is, is that it doesn't develop a cat 2 hurricane. Where do you get that idea? I see a 1012 mb contoured low hitting the coast, that is hardly TS strength, if even, of course they are real tight systems that require high resolution modeling on a global scale. but models can't accurately develop the outflow of a hurricane if it only sees a 1012 low. you wouldn't need much outflow for the small amount of convergenge that this pressure represents.

No...it never develops a cat 2 hurricane...I didn't mean it that way. Usually if the GFs has a 1012 low...or even a 1009 low (like in the central atlantic)...then it is forecasting something that in actuality would be much stronger. If the GFS picks up on something...and thinks it will be there...it may put it as a 1004 low...even though in actuality it may be 960. It doesn't do intensity well at all...it is not made to do that. That's why you never see the NHC quoting GFS intensity forecasts.

So...what I was saying is that projection by the GFS could be a 1009 low...or it could be a cat 2.

AND...if the GFS WAS right 16 days out in forecasting a cyclone...it would not likely even forecast a strong TS with a pressure of 995 mb. IT would be reflected as a 1009mb low. It doesn't do intensity very well...so you have to know the model...and know how to extrapolate what it says. That is what I was doing. Maybe I should have been more clear...but since it was kind of a joke...I didn't think I needed to be.

[CaluWxBill]

Hmmm...it can't initialize and keep a cat 2 hurricane...but it can forecast them 16 days into the future.

Yeah.

The point is, is that it doesn't develop a cat 2 hurricane. Where do you get that idea? I see a 1012 mb contoured low hitting the coast, that is hardly TS strength, if even, of course they are real tight systems that require high resolution modeling on a global scale. but models can't accurately develop the outflow of a hurricane if it only sees a 1012 low. you wouldn't need much outflow for the small amount of convergenge that this pressure represents.

No...it never develops a cat 2 hurricane...I didn't mean it that way. Usually if the GFs has a 1012 low...or even a 1009 low (like in the central atlantic)...then it is forecasting something that in actuality would be much stronger. If the GFS picks up on something...and thinks it will be there...it may put it as a 1004 low...even though in actuality it may be 960. It doesn't do intensity well at all...it is not made to do that. That's why you never see the NHC quoting GFS intensity forecasts.

So...what I was saying is that projection by the GFS could be a 1009 low...or it could be a cat 2.

AND...if the GFS WAS right 16 days out in forecasting a cyclone...it would not likely even forecast a strong TS with a pressure of 995 mb. IT would be reflected as a 1009mb low. It doesn't do intensity very well...so you have to know the model...and know how to extrapolate what it says. That is what I was doing. Maybe I should have been more clear...but since it was kind of a joke...I didn't think I needed to be.

Yeah I understand you now, I kind of misread your post. I am just trying to put across the point that with strength change so does the track in most cases. Hurricanes being a mesoscale system with a synoptic scale effect cannot be accurately rendered in a global model such as the GFS as as well as its effects on the steering currents and such.

[Guest]

I'm waiting for more agreement of ensemble runs before I can get excited over these waves coming off of Africa. Although, yeah there's plenty of potential down the road in coming weeks