Wave south of Cape Verde islands introduced

[cycloneye]

From the 2:05 Discussion:

Tropical wave added along 22w S of 16n moving W near 20kt.
This system moved off the African coast yesterday. Position of
wave was based on a combination of visible satellite imagery and
soundings from dakar and sal. The wave has scattered moderate
convection from 7n-12n between 20w-24w. The GFS model suggest
that some development is possible later in the week



The trend continues for the waves to move fast this one at 20 kts.

[WeatherEmperor]

Thanks Cyclone. Im just curious. Since this new wave off Africa is so close to Danielle is it possible that it could also recurve because of the environment that Danielle created or will it just keep on moving west undisrupted?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Those systems are far apart by 1,000 miles so no interaction will occur.What may happpen is that the same trough that got Danielle and began moving it NW if is amplifies it may well grab that wave too but I am way ahead about this so give it 3 days to see what happens.

[Weatherboy1]

The 12UTC GFS run carries a wave/low toward the Northern Leeward Islands. Here's the 120-hour forecast position:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_120l.gif

If you go even further out, the model output looks a lot like it did with Isabel in terms of track (a wave/low getting to the SE Bahamas or close by, then stalling and starting a gradual recurve due to an approaching trough). Here is the 10-day forecast position:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_240l.gif

Later on, the GFS shows a landfall in South Carolina. But keep in mind, these forecasts are pure speculation. There's no way to know where this next wave will be in a week and a half, whether it'll still be a wave or a full-blown 'cane, etc.

[Guest]

maybe it will hit SC. Danielle could recurve toward the SW as shown by the GFS as well. We could have our hands full. Do we have a timeframe for the naming of this thing yet?

[cycloneye]

No timeframe for it to organize it all depends on the conditions it finds in the tropical atlantic.

[PurdueWx80]

It isn't nearly as organized as Danielle was at that point, and if the development remains that slow, it will not recurve (as fast or at all). The subtrop. ridge should keep it moving W or WNW for a bit, but we all know how crappy the GFS is a week or more out, so there is no sense in paying much attention to it now.

[Guest]

How rude of me...Hello wave,how are ya.

[Brent]

Bonnie, Charley, and Earl started out by Africa as waves. They remained weak and thus wound up in the Caribbean. The weaker the system remains, the farther south it will stay.

[Guest]

the weaker system the mroe south seems to hold. Isabelle was by no means a weak system but it wasn't all that strong when it started, so that may of played into it hitting NC. Maybe this one has SC or NC written all over hit, however as of now we don't know.

[cycloneye]

the weaker system the mroe south seems to hold. Isabelle was by no means a weak system but it wasn't all that strong when it started, so that may of played into it hitting NC. Maybe this one has SC or NC written all over hit, however as of now we don't know.

Way way very early here about a future track of this wave as it does not have a well defined surface low yet.

[Guest]

i was just saying it might. Not specifying anything. However, the GFS on days 14-16 I think has what may become Francis landfalling in SC. VERY PRELIMINARY not saying its going to happen please dont jump all over me.

[cycloneye]

i was just saying it might. Not specifying anything. However, the GFS on days 14-16 I think has what may become Francis landfalling in SC. VERY PRELIMINARY not saying its going to happen please dont jump all over me.

No all is cool