In kind of a sick, guilt-saturated way...

[GalvestonDuck]

...I can't help but find myself thinking that, statistically at least, the odds of another major landfall this year are so slim now. I mean, when you consider how many major hurricanes ever actually occur per year...and then consider how many of them ever actually make landfall.

I know, I know, I know -- mother nature doesn't read statistics, weather is unpredictable (if you don't like it, just wait 5 minutes...it's bound to change), and we should not let our guard down. It's not over til the fat lady sings (didn't she get banned?)

And I really really hate to "celebrate" (if you'd call it that) the landfall of Charley at the expense of Floridians. I'm not -- and that's why I say that what I'm thinking is really somewhat sick and disturbing. I don't want to be "thankful" that he hit FL. I'd rather have seen him smash into some barren, unpopulated coastline (are there any?) than to see him do the destruction he did.

Does it make sense though? I'm sure I'm not alone on this. We don't really want to say it and we don't like thinking it. We know better. We know it's cruel and heartless. We know there's still a chance for one more Big One. But in some small way, I can't help but think "Whew! The worst part is over."

I'm sure there are many Floridians who didn't like what they had to experience, but they're glad that the storm is over so they can assess the damage, deal with the aftermath, and begin rebuilding and recovering. No more having to wonder "Uh-oh, how bad is it going to be and is he through yet?" It will be harder for those who lost loved ones and/or their homes and belongings. But I have faith that they can.

[rbaker]

well the odds our certainly on our side that a major will not hit again in the usa, but even a strong cat 2 is not out of the question this early.

[SouthernWx]

I hope I'm wrong, because I wouldn't wish a major hurricane on my worst enemy....but my advice to all coastal residents is don't let down your guard or breath a sigh of relief.

Call it my instinct, call it a hunch....call it a foreboding feeling because I realize how few intense hurricanes have struck the U.S. since 1970 COMPARED to the decades before. We've seen so many major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin since 1995, yet only 4 made landfall in the U.S. including Charley.

Since 1850, the U.S. has averaged a season in which two major hurricanes struck once every decade....but it hasn't happened in two decades (since 1985). The return period of seasons when three major hurricanes slammed into U.S. shores is every 39 years...the last time it happened was 1954...a half century ago.

I wouldn't even relax if I lived in Punta Gorda or on Captiva Island....because in 1848, the Tampa Bay area was blasted by two severe hurricanes only three weeks apart. We entered a new cycle of above average major hurricanes in 1995....it was only a matter of time until some began impacting U.S. shores, and the weather patter we're in...and the one I see ahead the next few weeks scares me to death.

It won't surprise me if another major hurricane strikes the U.S. between now and Halloween...and in all honesty, it won't shock me it two more U.S. landfalling major hurricanes occur.

[caneman]

I understand your feelings of guilt. Many here in the Tampa/St. Pete./Clearwater area are feeling that way. In the sense that someone else took a bullet for us. I will say this though, I have never seen this community respond to help the way it has and is right now. Even though these areas may be 30 to 60 miles away, it feels like something happened to your next door neighbor.

[RIcaner]

Statistically, I don't believe the fact that we had a major landfalling hurricane precludes us from having another, so we should not sit back and say it can't happen again this year, because we already had one.

The reverse may even be argued, that since we have had one and the season is far from over, that we might expect more, since the pattern is such that major hurrucanes are making landfall this year.

[GalvestonDuck]

*sigh* Obviously, some of you aren't getting my point. Like I said:

I know, I know, I know -- mother nature doesn't read statistics, weather is unpredictable (if you don't like it, just wait 5 minutes...it's bound to change), and we should not let our guard down.

I'm not so much bothered or fearful about my becoming complacent this season. It's the fact that, as days go by and as the season continues to pass, I can't help but think about Charley already hitting.

It's not the thoughts about the storms yet to come that bothers me -- it's the thoughts (and relief?) about the one that's already been here.

Nevermind -- some of you seem to be speaking from a statistical perspective and that's not where I'm coming from.

Caneman -- thanks for understanding.

[Anonymous]

Years like 1945-- two category 4's hit. Even years with like one category 4 and two category 2's can be horrendous.

[opera ghost]

I think I know what you mean Duck... and how you meant it.

I look at (ex)Earl and I think to myself- what are the odds? Two hits on population centers? Bah... Houston hasn't even been hit in years... Surely it'll land somewhere that's pretty much unpopulated and won't actully make major status at landfall. After all Florida's already had this decades Andrew!

It's like going to the baseball game and seeing a shut out for the first 7 innings... with a wildly silly score board. 10-0. Then thinking to yourself- what are the odds I'll miss the great come back of the season if I slip out to my car an hour early and beat the rush home.

It's a guilty feeling ESPECIALLY since I know it's only August 16th and Houston/Galveston has been mentioned a couple of times in refernece to Earl- I know on an intellectual it could get Major.. I just don't really believe it.

Liek saying- Whew the Astros have a 20 point lead in the world series at the 4th inning. Might as well just pack it in and head home.... they're sure to win.

[southerngale]

Liek saying- Whew the Astros have a 20 point lead in the world series at the 4th inning. Might as well just pack it in and head home.... they're sure to win.

Is that a premonition? I like it.

[Roxy]

Liek saying- Whew the Astros have a 20 point lead in the world series at the 4th inning. Might as well just pack it in and head home.... they're sure to win.

Is that a premonition? I like it.

HA! Not with the way they've been playing...

[southerngale]

I know Roxy, I know.

[msbee]

in 1995 we had 2 major hurricanes hit the islands back to back, within a week or so of each other.
If those hurricanes can find our little islands, what makes you think they can't find the USA again?
I hope it's not true, but anything is possible until hurricane season is over.

[vbhoutex]

in 1995 we had 2 major hurricanes hit the islands back to back, within a week or so of each other.
If those hurricanes can find our little islands, what makes you think they can't find the USA again?
I hope it's not true, but anything is possible until hurricane season is over.

Point well taken!!! US is a MUCH BIGGER "TARGET"!!

GD, I do understand where you were going with this and it almost seems feasible, except ofr one thing. This season, just like last one, has been full of surprises!! Just when we think we have it figured out... here comes that curve ball!!!!!

[GalvestonDuck]

Oh, brother -- I give up.

[rainstorm]

QUACK!!!

[GulfBreezer]

I understand completely what you are trying to say duck. The thing with these categories is that I have seen Cat 1 storms have devastating consequences as well, while statistically, another major cane hitting the US is very slim, a cat 1 or 2 or even a Tropical Storm can produce some pretty horrifying results and all can cause loss of life.

[rainydaze]

Duck,

Maybe what you are experiencing is a form of survivors guilt. You are sad for the people it happened to and how devastated thier home and lives are....but at the same time you are relieved it didn't happen to you and you may even feel a little happy that the chances of this happening to you have gone down statistically...and you feel guilty for that because it had to happen at the expense of others who are just as undeserving of this tradgedy as you are.

Believe me, yesterday when we were having a great time having a big BBQ and swimming with our friends, I felt a little sad and guilty because there are people who have lost everything they own, no phone, no electricity....and here we are laughing, joking and pigging out on BBQ.

It's like I want to just drop everything run over there and help all I can. But I've got kids who are in school, a husband who needs to work to support us and I cannot afford it financially.

What I am going to do is call all my friends and tell them I am taking up a collection for the relief fund this week and send it in to the American Red Cross. I myself, can only afford to make a small donation. But if I put my small donation with 15 or 20 other small donations, it becomes something significant.

Maybe you can do something like that. Find some way, even if it's the smallest of ways to help. I think there is always something we can do to help a situation. Because if you add your small help with the small help of many others, it becomes a big help to the people in need.

Take Care and I hope I'm not completely off base on how you are feeling.

[GalvestonDuck]

Duck,

Maybe what you are experiencing is a form of survivors guilt. You are sad for the people it happened to and how devastated thier home and lives are....but at the same time you are relieved it didn't happen to you and you may even feel a little happy that the chances of this happening to you have gone down statistically...and you feel guilty for that because it had to happen at the expense of others who are just as undeserving of this tradgedy as you are.

Believe me, yesterday when we were having a great time having a big BBQ and swimming with our friends, I felt a little sad and guilty because there are people who have lost everything they own, no phone, no electricity....and here we are laughing, joking and pigging out on BBQ.

It's like I want to just drop everything run over there and help all I can. But I've got kids who are in school, a husband who needs to work to support us and I cannot afford it financially.

What I am going to do is call all my friends and tell them I am taking up a collection for the relief fund this week and send it in to the American Red Cross. I myself, can only afford to make a small donation. But if I put my small donation with 15 or 20 other small donations, it becomes something significant.

Maybe you can do something like that. Find some way, even if it's the smallest of ways to help. I think there is always something we can do to help a situation. Because if you add your small help with the small help of many others, it becomes a big help to the people in need.

Take Care and I hope I'm not completely off base on how you are feeling.

Off base? Far from it! You nailed it! Somehow I wasn't able to put it into words correctly or give it a name.

THANK YOU!! ((((((((Hugs))))))

[paulvogel]

i am collecting cash from my friends and coworkers, liquidating my "mad money" and heading to charlotte cty to give it to my sister!

[rainydaze]

(((((HUGS BACK))))

Take Care